The leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis

October / November 2019

  • Weak survey data make an imminent global rebound unlikely and worries over slowing growth and trade war may be taking a toll on services. We see a further slowdown into 2020, and world growth of 2.5% this year and next, the weakest since 2009.
  • Some activity gauges are downbeat but global PMI data is little changed since June so global growth is unlikely to plunge. Global recession risk is now 30% but we believe that will be avoided.
  • Central bank moves and the lack of an escalation in trade tensions should be enough to ensure the present downturn turns out to be a ‘mini-slowdown’ within the economic cycle.
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  • Thursday's #ECB Council meeting will be the last chaired by Mario #Draghi as he hands over to Christine #Lagarde at the end of the month. We don't expect much else of note after last month’s monetary fireworks that will see the restart of #eurozone QE:

  • Establishing the world’s largest free trade area is an investment game changer. So, what are the top #African economies for investment? Get the the 2019 #AfricaRiskRewardIndex from OE and @NKCAfrica with @Control_Risks to find out more: #ARRI2019

  • The Hays Global #Skills Index 2019/20, produced with OE, analyses the challenges facing organisations in their labour market as they search for the most sought-after talent. Read the full report at:

  • AR promises to make all the world a stage for immersive experiences. Check out our latest study to see how AR adopters are already capitalizing on AR’s ability to deliver improved business outcomes #AR #RealReality #Augmented #AI

  • Amid #tradewar, with businesses more reluctant to invest, construction activity in #Asia is at risk of becoming collateral damage. In our latest Asia Construction Service report we map key trends, winners and losers for Asia #construction and #realestate:

  • In #France 2020 budget plans confirm fiscal policy supports demand following the #giletsjaunes crisis. Tax cuts for households will be 3x larger than planned 1yr ago, before the protests. In contrast, tax cuts for companies are more than halved:

  • Global growth is ~1ppt down from its Q1 2018 peak. Since the 70s there hv been 7 slowdowns on this scale; 4 morphed into #recession. We find a 30% risk of global recession in the next 12m, but this could change rapidly if there were several more shocks: