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February / March 2020

  • Rapid spread of the coronavirus will weaken China’s growth sharply in the short-term, causing global disruption. While there were signs in early 2020 that the worst was over for world trade and manufacturing, that optimism has been dashed by the outbreak.
  • In China, we expect the near-term impact to see Q1 growth plunge to just 3.8% y/y. Although growth should then rebound, it will take time for the loss in activity to be fully recovered and we have cut our 2020 China growth forecast by 0.6pp to just 5.4%.
  • Global conditions should strengthen in H2 as the disruption fades. But we now project 2020 global growth will slow to just 2.3%, its weakest since 2009.
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CORONAVIRUS - LATEST UPDATES AND ANALYSIS: Coronavirus to cut global growth to new lows...

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  • Current policy puts the world on course for #globalwarming of 2°C by 2050. While governments may boost efforts, we think this will not be enough to dramatically curb temperature rises. In our new White Paper we examine #climatechange mitigation:

  • Curbing global warming to the 1.5°C aim of the Paris Agreement requires CO2 emissions to halve in 10 yrs and a net carbon-neutral world by 2050. But this requires a revolution in energy use...

  • In the #USeconomy, today's unrevised 2.1% Q4 growth gives an optical illusion of an economy chugging along at a 2% clip. But underlying details paint a softer picture even ahead of the #coronavirus outbreak. We now expect 2020 US growth of only 1.5%:

  • Though often bracketed as troubled periphery economies, #Spain and #Italy have markedly different dynamics. After years of stronger growth, Spain has now surpassed Italy in GDP per capita terms. We do not expect this gap to close again:

  • OE's @nafezouk talks to @NatashaTurak on @CNBC on how fast time is running out for the gov't in #Lebanon to avoid a hard landing and that, with 2 weeks left to the March maturity date, there is still nothing concrete from the authorities.

  • The @nytimes highlights our scenario analysis of the economic impact of the #coronavirus should the outbreak continue to escalate. We find a potential $1.1 trillion hit to world GDP if the outbreak morphs into a global #pandemic:

  • We model two scenarios on the #coronavirus outbreak morphing into #pandemic. An #Asia pandemic wld cut world GDP $0.4tn (0.5%) in 2020 vs our baseline forecast. A global pandemic wld cut it y $1.1tn (1.3%), with the US and eurozone pushed into recession: