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July / August 2020

After a dire start to Q2 in April, the global economy has since staged a robust rebound as lockdown restrictions in many regions have eased. But despite a strong initial bounce, high unemployment and surging corporate debt will limit the scale of the revival in H2 and beyond. And the renewed rise in Covid-19 cases in parts of the world shows that considerable downside risks remain.

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CORONAVIRUS - LATEST UPDATES AND ANALYSIS: Services-oriented states are on the front lines...

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Latest Analysis

  • Jul 29 2020

    Inside Frontier Markets – July 2020

    In this edition, we present cross-country quantitative assessments of EMBI spreads, then look at Sri Lanka, Costa Rica, Ukraine, Egypt, Ecuador, and Argentina.

  • Jul 29 2020

    Don’t expect Covid-19 to boost weak productivity

    The Covid-19 outbreak has the capacity to create some positive spillovers to advanced economies’ (AEs) productivity in the medium term. But we expect the underlying factors that have suppressed produc...

  • Jul 28 2020

    Canada: Initial job bounce will turn into a laborious full recovery

    Lockdowns to contain the spread of Covid-19 in Canada caused a record 3 million job losses, a 16% collapse from February to April. While the initial reopening of the economy in May and June has allowe...

  • Jul 28 2020

    United States: Decline in Treasury market activity could last for a while

    Treasury market trading volumes and Treasury futures open interest have fallen sharply as volatility has collapsed to near record lows since the extreme volatility-induced flows in March.

  • Jul 28 2020

    India: A reopening gone wrong

    The central government’s attempts to restart the economy are already running aground. With coronavirus cases still rising, states and union territories are either suspending reopening or even re-tight...

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In the media

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Latest tweets

  • Jul 31 2020

    US Recovery Tracker - the economy needs a booster shot

  • Jul 31 2020

    Services-oriented states are suffering the greatest disruptions from the #coronavirus pandemic. Not only did these states sustain greater damage than goods-oriented states during the initial downturn, but their recoveries have lagged.

    Read more here

  • Jul 31 2020

    Chart of the week: US coronavirus reproduction rates

  • Jul 30 2020

    Our US Recovery Tracker rebounded slightly last week. But the demand & employment components are showing some worrying fissures just as Congress is debating additional fiscal aid. And despite the national increase, the Recovery Trackers of 41 states fell:

  • Jul 30 2020

    Following this week's FOMC meeting, we look for the Fed to adopt explicit forward guidance sometime in the fall, following the completion of its policy framework review. We forecast rate lift-off will not take place until 2024:

  • Jul 30 2020

    While incoming retail sales data suggest a V-shape recovery, these data don't tell the whole story. Recoveries are uneven across economies, while retail sales are a poor guide to overall consumer spending in the current environment:

  • Jul 30 2020

    Our eurozone business uncertainty and financial conditions indices point to a 12% fall in business investment this year. And while the contraction will be short-lived, we expect it to be Q4 2021 before business investment returns to pre-pandemic levels: