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July / August 2020

After a dire start to Q2 in April, the global economy has since staged a robust rebound as lockdown restrictions in many regions have eased. But despite a strong initial bounce, high unemployment and surging corporate debt will limit the scale of the revival in H2 and beyond. And the renewed rise in Covid-19 cases in parts of the world shows that considerable downside risks remain.

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CORONAVIRUS - LATEST UPDATES AND ANALYSIS: Services-oriented states are on the front lines...

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Latest Analysis

  • Jul 30 2020

    V-shape consumer recovery? Not so fast…

    Incoming retail sales data for June suggest a V-shape recovery in consumer spending. But these data don’t tell the whole story. Recoveries are uneven across economies, and retail sales are a poor guid...

  • Jul 30 2020

    United Kingdom: MPC to weigh risks to the recovery

    While MPC members haven’t been devoid of optimism, risks to the outlook have dominated recent statements. We don’t expect the MPC to change policy at August’s meeting, but the committee may be willing...

  • Jul 30 2020

    Eurozone: Recovery of business investment hangs by a thread

    We expect the sharp drop in demand, elevated uncertainty, and fragile financial conditions to trigger the largest fall in business investment since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). The current mechan...

  • Jul 29 2020

    United States: FOMC maintains a very dovish stance

    As expected, the FOMC reaffirmed its extremely dovish forward guidance. Given the recent stalling of economic activity linked to the rising number of virus cases, Chairman Powell retained a very cauti...

  • Jul 29 2020

    Chile: Pension withdrawals’ boost to GDP

    This week, the Chilean parliament has approved what has been nicknamed the “10% bill”, a law that allows domestic savers to withdraw at least 10% of their private pension savings within the next 360 d...

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In the media

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Latest tweets

  • Jul 31 2020

    US Recovery Tracker - the economy needs a booster shot

  • Jul 31 2020

    Services-oriented states are suffering the greatest disruptions from the #coronavirus pandemic. Not only did these states sustain greater damage than goods-oriented states during the initial downturn, but their recoveries have lagged.

    Read more here

  • Jul 31 2020

    Chart of the week: US coronavirus reproduction rates

  • Jul 30 2020

    Our US Recovery Tracker rebounded slightly last week. But the demand & employment components are showing some worrying fissures just as Congress is debating additional fiscal aid. And despite the national increase, the Recovery Trackers of 41 states fell:

  • Jul 30 2020

    Following this week's FOMC meeting, we look for the Fed to adopt explicit forward guidance sometime in the fall, following the completion of its policy framework review. We forecast rate lift-off will not take place until 2024:

  • Jul 30 2020

    While incoming retail sales data suggest a V-shape recovery, these data don't tell the whole story. Recoveries are uneven across economies, while retail sales are a poor guide to overall consumer spending in the current environment:

  • Jul 30 2020

    Our eurozone business uncertainty and financial conditions indices point to a 12% fall in business investment this year. And while the contraction will be short-lived, we expect it to be Q4 2021 before business investment returns to pre-pandemic levels: