Oxford Economics

Latest Global Outlook - January / February 2021

While vaccination roll-outs will pick up speed in the coming months, high global Covid-19 case numbers and the threat from the spread of more transmissible variants of the virus have prompted us to lower our 2021 world GDP growth forecast for 2021 slightly from 5.2% to 5.0% after an estimated 3.9% fall in 2020.

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Latest Analysis

  • Jan 20 2021

    The scars of Covid-19

    The coronavirus crisis is likely to have persistent negative effects on world output. Our baseline forecast already assumes the crisis will cut the long-term level of world GDP by around 2%, or US$2.1...

  • Jan 20 2021

    Eurozone: Surging insolvencies to dent but not derail recovery

    Government intervention has artificially reduced the rate of eurozone firm failures this year. But as normal insolvency rules will very likely be reactivated over the course of H1 2021, a wave of bank...

  • Jan 19 2021

    Covid-19 scorecard update: New year offers no respite

    Our latest Covid-19 vulnerability scorecard shows that advanced economies (AEs) are most vulnerable to the pandemic. This contrasts with our summer update when emerging markets (EMs) were overtaking A...

  • Jan 19 2021

    United States: How Biden can reshape the Fed

    While fiscal policy and the health agenda will be the immediate focus for Joe Biden as he assumes the presidency, Biden will have opportunities to reshape the FOMC over the next year. We look for him...

  • Jan 19 2021

    Eurozone: Recovery Tracker falls, confirming weak start to 2021

    Our Eurozone Recovery Tracker fell again in the week ending January 3, confirming the weak start to the year for the European economy. The production index saw the sharpest fall, partially due to seas...

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Key Themes for 2021

Learn more about our predictions for the key threats and opportunities for the global economy in 2021.

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