Oxford Economics

Latest Global Outlook - November / December 2021

We still think the Q3 soft patch for the global recovery was temporary and expect a pick-up in growth in Q4. As a result, our world GDP growth forecasts for 2021 and 2022 are unchanged at 5.7% and 4.5% respectively. But the global recovery remains volatile due to supply-side problems. The slowdown in q/q GDP growth in Q3 from 1.4% to 0.9% was a response to disruption, especially in Asia, from higher Delta cases as well as ongoing supply-chain bottlenecks constraining production in some sectors.

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Latest Analysis

  • Nov 23 2021

    Eurozone: Long-term forces to keep interest rates and inflation low

    Whether eurozone inflation is temporary or merely transitory is hotly debated at present, but it doesn’t matter for interest rates over the medium-to-long term. What matters are the secular forces tha...

  • Nov 23 2021

    The real estate bounce will extend into 2022

    After bouncing back from the pandemic in 2021, global real estate will likely have another strong year in 2022 – we expect returns of 8%. Despite disruptions in product and labour markets and isolated...

  • Nov 23 2021

    More talk or actual progress? Assessing COP26 outcome

    The most important achievement at COP26 was the success of the ‘Paris ratchet,’ whereby countries have to return every five years with updated emission targets. All told, including the long-term plans...

  • Nov 23 2021

    Global capital flows stabilise, but at a modest level

    After a brief interruption in early 2020, global capital flows have now stabilised. The good news for the world economy is that the recovery in flows has been much faster than after the global financi...

  • Nov 23 2021

    Eurozone: Europe’s labour shortages – not all equal

    Although reported labour shortages in the eurozone appear to be worsening, our analysis of the underlying dynamics shows a more nuanced picture. We think the shortages in manufacturing and services ar...

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