The leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis

LATEST GLOBAL OUTLOOK
March 2019 / April 2019

  • Sharply lower global trade growth and signs weakness is spreading mean we see 2019 global GDP growth of 2.5%, versus 2018's 3%.
  • A recent services pick-up gives some comfort. But key economies' retail sales have been weak and we have cut consumer spending forecasts.
  • We see H2 growth accelerating, however, due to policy changes and as temporary negatives unwind. Looser Chinese policy and dovish central banks will buoy activity so global growth should rise to 2.7% in 2020, but with downside risks.
Download free summary
Forecasts and models

Oxford Economics is a leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis, with the world’s only fully integrated economic model and 250 full-time economists, we help our clients track, analyse, and model country, industry, and urban trends.

Learn more

Consulting

Our economists and thought leadership specialists are expert at applying advanced economic tools to provide valuable insights into today’s most pressing business, financial, and policy issues.

Learn more

Latest Analysis

  • Mar 13 2019

    United Kingdom: Some fiscal sunshine through the Brexit clouds

    Given current political turmoil, the Chancellor benefited from low expectations in the run up to today’s Spring Statement. In practice, a downgrade to GDP growth this year didn’t prevent the OBR’s lat...

  • Mar 13 2019

    Frontiers drowning in debt

    Our sovereign risk indicator suggests that the risk profile of 17 major frontier markets has deteriorated continuously over the past decade. A lot of this deterioration stems from a steady build-up of...

  • Mar 13 2019

    Services won’t ride to the rescue of global growth

    Global services output is holding up better than manufacturing, but services growth will slow this year and so won’t prevent world GDP growth slipping to its weakest pace since 2016. While services ou...

  • Mar 13 2019

    Eurozone: Depressed by high uncertainty? Try our new indicator!

    The economic deceleration across the eurozone has not started to take a measurable toll on investment activity yet. But the high uncertainty concerning economic and geopolitical developments could soo...

  • Mar 12 2019

    United Kingdom: Brexit deal voted down again, so a delay looks likely

    MPs have again comprehensively rejected the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. The week’s remaining votes are likely to force the Government to seek a short extension of the Article 50 negotiations, probabl...

EXPANDED US STATE, METRO AND COUNTY FORECASTS

We now offer comprehensive forecasts and analysis for more than 3,500 sub-national economies in the US, spanning all 50 states, 382 metro areas and 3,142 counties.

Learn more

new service: Sovereign risk tool

A rigorous and transparent framework to measure the vulnerability of 166 countries to a sovereign crisis or a sovereign distress.

Learn more

African Forecasting Service

Comprehensive analysis of national and urban economics in Africa.

Learn more

EVENTS

We run an extensive, worldwide programme of illuminating forums and roundtables with presentations from our economic experts.

What's on?

See all tweets

Latest tweets

  • RT @GregDaco: On @BloombergRadio with @FerroTV & @lisaabramowicz1 discussing US growth & #inflation outlook, Phillips curve, #Fed ammunitio…

  • Our Chief US Economist, @GregDaco, discussed how the fiscally-stimulated US #economy has been the engine of growth preventing a sharper global growth slowdown on @CNBCTheExchange with Kelly Evans. google.com/amp/s/uk.finan…

  • Our Chief US Economist, ⁦@GregDaco⁩, discussed the roadblocks to a comprehensive #trade agreement between the US & #China with ⁦@RiggsReport⁩. bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…

  • Our Chief US Economist, ⁦@GregDaco⁩, discusses the impact of low #inflation & subdued expectations on global bond yields with ⁦@RiggsReport⁩ on ⁦@BloombergTV⁩ bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…

  • RT @GregDaco: Great fun to chat with @KellyEvansCNBC today on @CNBCTheExchange ! We discussed global growth slowdown & what it means for th…

  • RT @GregDaco: Great fun to chat with @KellyEvansCNBC today on @CNBCTheExchange ! We discussed global growth slowdown & what it means for th…

  • RT @GregDaco: Great fun to chat with @KellyEvansCNBC today on @CNBCTheExchange ! We discussed global growth slowdown & what it means for th…