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May / June 2020

We have cut our global GDP growth forecast for 2020 again, reflecting a more pessimistic assessment of the economic hit from ongoing lockdowns. While we still expect a rebound in H2 this year, the very weak H1 means that world GDP is now expected to contract by 4.8% in 2020 as a whole.

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CORONAVIRUS - LATEST UPDATES AND ANALYSIS: 26 May 2020 - Evidence points to May bounce...

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  • Jun 03 2020

    The historic rise in precautionary savings will act as a restraint on US consumer spending. The personal saving rate will decline in 2 phases over the coming months with income cliffs from expiring fiscal aid representing downside risks to consumer outlays

  • Jun 02 2020

    In H2 2020 policymakers in emerging markets will face much more intense challenges to contain #coronavirus than their advanced economies counterparts. Brazil, Chile, India, Nigeria and Panama give us considerable cause for concern:

  • Jun 02 2020

    Unlike other adv economies, Japan's long period of low interest rates hasn't caused high leveraging or major asset price bubbles. Its major financial fragility is bank lending's credit costs due to increased exposure to middle-risk firms & real estate:

  • Jun 01 2020

    We expect the May jobs report to show a further 6.4mn job losses, though this should represent the peak. Wage growth may again be artificially boosted by low-paying sectors being disproportionately affected by layoffs. Our preview can be found here:

  • Jun 01 2020

    Latin America's fiscal response to the pandemic has been mixed - some countries have temporarily suspended fiscal rules but others have adopted more muted responses. We expect Latin America's fiscal deficit to hit 6.3% of GDP in 2020:

  • Jun 01 2020

    We expect the dire economic outlook, growing disinflationary pressures and the surge in bond issuance to convince the #ECB to further ease monetary policy at the June meeting. A €250bn increase in the PEPP envelope is the most likely option:

  • May 29 2020

    Our simulations suggest the EU recovery fund will lift eurozone GDP growth by 1.2% in 2021 to 7.4%, with the level of GDP around 1% higher than our May baseline in 2024. We expect Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy to be key beneficiaries: