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LATEST GLOBAL OUTLOOK
March 2019 / April 2019

  • Sharply lower global trade growth and signs weakness is spreading mean we see 2019 global GDP growth of 2.5%, versus 2018's 3%.
  • A recent services pick-up gives some comfort. But key economies' retail sales have been weak and we have cut consumer spending forecasts.
  • We see H2 growth accelerating, however, due to policy changes and as temporary negatives unwind. Looser Chinese policy and dovish central banks will buoy activity so global growth should rise to 2.7% in 2020, but with downside risks.
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Latest Analysis

  • Mar 15 2019

    Nearer-term weakness, but H2 recovery still likely

    We have recently cut our global GDP forecasts in response to further evidence that the ongoing soft patch will continue for longer than previously assumed and now see growth easing from 3.0% last year...

  • Mar 15 2019

    Japan: BoJ on hold amidst rising external risks

    The Bank of Japan (BoJ) today announced that it will leave monetary policy unchanged despite rising external risks and stagnant low inflation. Reflecting the deceleration in global momentum, especiall...

  • Mar 14 2019

    United States: The outlook for the budget: Alternate realities

    While the federal budget deficit won’t breach the symbolic $1 trillion mark in fiscal 2019, it is on track to rise to $975 billion this year. And, despite slight downward revisions to our budget proje...

  • Mar 14 2019

    United Kingdom: Brexit – a week where nothing has changed

    While it may have been a week high on political drama, to all intents and purposes nothing has changed. There is likely to be a short extension to Article 50 talks, but this will merely shift the dead...

  • Mar 14 2019

    United States: Recession odds reach new cycle high

    Recession odds have risen but remain below critical thresholds breached prior to each of the last seven recessions. Weak economic activity in January pushed up odds from last month, but near-term risk...

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  • RT @GregDaco: Great fun to chat with @KellyEvansCNBC today on @CNBCTheExchange ! We discussed global growth slowdown & what it means for th…