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March 2019 / April 2019

  • Sharply lower global trade growth and signs weakness is spreading mean we see 2019 global GDP growth of 2.5%, versus 2018's 3%.
  • A recent services pick-up gives some comfort. But key economies' retail sales have been weak and we have cut consumer spending forecasts.
  • We see H2 growth accelerating, however, due to policy changes and as temporary negatives unwind. Looser Chinese policy and dovish central banks will buoy activity so global growth should rise to 2.7% in 2020, but with downside risks.
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Latest Analysis

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  • Mar 14 2019

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    Recession odds have risen but remain below critical thresholds breached prior to each of the last seven recessions. Weak economic activity in January pushed up odds from last month, but near-term risk...


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  • RT @GregDaco: Great fun to chat with @KellyEvansCNBC today on @CNBCTheExchange ! We discussed global growth slowdown & what it means for th…