Oxford Economics is a leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis, with the world’s only fully integrated economic model and 250 full-time economists, we help our clients track, analyse, and model country, industry, and urban trends.
- May 13 2019
United States: Odds for Fed rate cut rise as China trade war intensifies
While our base case remains that the Fed will “patiently” hold rates steady this year, escalating trade tensions vis-à-vis China and a simultaneous tightening in financial conditions amid subdued infl...
- May 10 2019
United States: Macro Musings: A risky bet on tariffs.
Constructive comments on trade negotiations by government officials late in the week rescued the stock market from a potential meltdown. That said, no deal with China was struck by the end of the week...
- May 10 2019
United States: Tariffs strike as trade negotiations linger on
The Trump administration’s tariff hike to 25% on half of US imports from China will cost the US economy $29 billion by 2020, or 0.3% of GDP. The cost to the global economy will surpass $105 billion.
- May 09 2019
United States: Yield curve recession models on high alert!
With the yield curve nearing another inversion, our yield curve recession models point to the highest odds of a downturn in this business cycle. This comes in stark contrast with recent economic data...
- May 09 2019
Canada’s slowdown could force a rate cut
Broad-based weakness in the economy has put the Bank of Canada on hold, but it still expects a pick-up in the latter half of the year, with growth rising to 2.1% in 2020. We disagree and think that th...
Regaining trust in active management: Allianz Global Investors 2019 Institutional Investor Survey
The 2019 Allianz GI Institutional Investor Survey shows that investors want strategies to help manage emerging risks, knowing that, thanks to quantitative easing, market conditions since the global fi... more
Digital Society Index 2019: Human Needs in a Digital World
Despite being a part of the world’s most dynamic digital economy, U.S. consumers have the least amount of trust in businesses and a greater propensity to protect their data. Read our global study to u... more
Return on Culture: Proving the connection between culture and profit
Assigning a measurable value to something as intangible and fluid as organizational culture - defined here as the often-unspoken rules that guide the behavior of leaders and employees alike - is a cha... more
In the media
Bloomberg highlights capital flows research by OE's Guillermo Tolosa that suggests US #Treasuries could be vulnerable to a sell-off as long-running support from #QE ends so that current low yields may not last: bloom.bg/2w3Mhib via @markets
With the broad MSCI index tracking #EM currencies falling to its lowest level since early January today and the #lira in Turkey down ~2% find out more about how our #FX Risk tool pinpoints FX hotspots, and can help predict looming currency crises: bit.ly/2LG8BZZ
After further attacks on #oil tankers in the Gulf, #Brent crude saw its sharpest one-day rise in a month, rising 1.5% to $71.70. We see increased risks of significantly higher oil prices and examine the impact of $100 a barrel crude: bit.ly/2W4e14G
Our FX Risk Tool provides a composite measure of vulnerability to #currencycrisis, measuring risks of sharp currency falls and is a strong leading indicator of currency crises, our testing shows: bit.ly/2VZW9rE
Sharp EM currency falls today highlight the prospect of further FX volatility in EMs. Despite significant adjustments since last year, the #Argentina peso #ARS and #Turkey lira #TRY are still the two #currencies most vulnerable, our new #FXRisk tool shows: bit.ly/2W1iTYq
New US #tariffs on China threaten to derail a nascent recovery in business confidence shown by our new Global Risk Survey. Business gloom had started to abate with 20% of respondents seeing the risk of a sharp slowdown declining in the past 3 mnths: bit.ly/2LCiveU
In #Canada, broad-based weakness in the economy leaves the #BankofCanada on hold, but it sees a pick-up in H2, with 2020 growth f/cast to rise to 2.1%. We disagree and see growth of 1.1% this yr and 1.2% next - which would make BoC's next move a rate cut: bit.ly/2VWE260