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July - August 2019

  • A global slowdown is continuing and risks are rising that this year will see the weakest world growth in the post-crisis period. But with central banks set to turn dovish words into action soon, recession risks are still low.
  • We see two US rate cuts in Q3 and another in Q1, 2020. We also expect a cut later this year from the European Central Bank, which may well also resume QE.
  • Lower US rates and a 2020 US slowdown may eventually weaken the dollar, but this will not be a major fillip. We forecast 2019 global growth of 2.7% rising to 2.8% in 2020 in response to the loosening in monetary policy.
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  • Our new research from Tourism Economics with the European Travel Commission on 'European Tourism Trends and Prospects' is out now: European #tourism maintains stable growth with international arrivals to Europe set to grow 3.6% in 2019. @ETC_Corporate

  • #FX RISK - ON-DEMAND WEBINAR Our recent webinar ‘Four countries and forex risk’ is now available on demand. Produced with Control Risks, it takes a whirlwind tour of #forex risk in key #EM economies – #Turkey #Argentina #Russia and #Colombia ... Watch now:

  • Our 250 economists have updated our monthly forecasts - download a FREE
    SUMMARY: Continuing global slowdown means rising risks 2019 will see the weakest post-crisis growth. But impending action by central banks means recession risks are still low.

  • We identify conspicuous areas of growing #EM vulnerability, inc rising sovereign and corporate debt, and opaque lending practices by #China. But while global volatility and yields stay low, risks shd be confined to a few sovereigns whose domestic policies have gone off-track.

  • In #Africa, slowing global growth may spell adverse implications for economies through #trade with #China and #commodities prices, while lower interest rates in advanced economies may fuel appetite for African debt discouraging needed fiscal consolidation:

  • In #LatinAmerica the six largest economies contracted or stagnated in Q1. These are ominous signs of weakness, not seen since the financial crisis. We still expect a recovery but also below-consensus growth given fiscal adjustments and policy uncertainty:

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