Oxford Economics is a leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis, with the world’s only fully integrated economic model and 250 full-time economists, we help our clients track, analyse, and model country, industry, and urban trends.
- May 17 2019
United States: Transitory tariff inflation leaves disinflationary trail
The recent escalation of US-China trade tensions resulting in 25% tariffs on a cumulative $250 billion of imports from China will boost core PCE inflation by 0.2ppt in 2019 and 0.3ppt in 2020. However...
- May 17 2019
Argentina: Three inflation scenarios ahead of the October election
Our new inflation model suggests that monthly inflation is bound to decelerate in the coming months as tighter financial conditions feed through. Yet, this is unlikely to be a cause for celebration as...
- May 17 2019
Global: Economic forecasts lowered on new tariff hikes
In response to the latest increases in the US and China tariffs, we have trimmed 0.1pp off our global GDP growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020.
- May 17 2019
Asia Pacific: Rising household debt stirs vulnerability fears
Accelerating household credit growth in Asia is a growing concern, not least because household balance sheets in some of the economies with elevated debt levels – particularly South Korea, Hong Kong a...
- May 16 2019
United States: Kashkari: Fed needs to walk the walk
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (not currently a voting member of the FOMC) in a speech today argued that monetary policy has been too tight and that the FOMC has treated the Fed’s 2% inflatio...
Regaining trust in active management: Allianz Global Investors 2019 Institutional Investor Survey
The 2019 Allianz GI Institutional Investor Survey shows that investors want strategies to help manage emerging risks, knowing that, thanks to quantitative easing, market conditions since the global fi... more
Digital Society Index 2019: Human Needs in a Digital World
Despite being a part of the world’s most dynamic digital economy, U.S. consumers have the least amount of trust in businesses and a greater propensity to protect their data. Read our global study to u... more
Return on Culture: Proving the connection between culture and profit
Assigning a measurable value to something as intangible and fluid as organizational culture - defined here as the often-unspoken rules that guide the behavior of leaders and employees alike - is a cha... more
In the media
Bloomberg highlights capital flows research by OE's Guillermo Tolosa that suggests US #Treasuries could be vulnerable to a sell-off as long-running support from #QE ends so that current low yields may not last: bloom.bg/2w3Mhib via @markets
With the broad MSCI index tracking #EM currencies falling to its lowest level since early January today and the #lira in Turkey down ~2% find out more about how our #FX Risk tool pinpoints FX hotspots, and can help predict looming currency crises: bit.ly/2LG8BZZ
After further attacks on #oil tankers in the Gulf, #Brent crude saw its sharpest one-day rise in a month, rising 1.5% to $71.70. We see increased risks of significantly higher oil prices and examine the impact of $100 a barrel crude: bit.ly/2W4e14G
Our FX Risk Tool provides a composite measure of vulnerability to #currencycrisis, measuring risks of sharp currency falls and is a strong leading indicator of currency crises, our testing shows: bit.ly/2VZW9rE
Sharp EM currency falls today highlight the prospect of further FX volatility in EMs. Despite significant adjustments since last year, the #Argentina peso #ARS and #Turkey lira #TRY are still the two #currencies most vulnerable, our new #FXRisk tool shows: bit.ly/2W1iTYq
New US #tariffs on China threaten to derail a nascent recovery in business confidence shown by our new Global Risk Survey. Business gloom had started to abate with 20% of respondents seeing the risk of a sharp slowdown declining in the past 3 mnths: bit.ly/2LCiveU
In #Canada, broad-based weakness in the economy leaves the #BankofCanada on hold, but it sees a pick-up in H2, with 2020 growth f/cast to rise to 2.1%. We disagree and see growth of 1.1% this yr and 1.2% next - which would make BoC's next move a rate cut: bit.ly/2VWE260