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LATEST GLOBAL OUTLOOK
May - June 2019

  • The global economy has seen a lacklustre start to 2019, entering its third slowdown since 2010. We expect global growth this year to be a little weaker than in 2018, at 2.8%, and then to stay stuck in a lower gear with the same pace of expansion in 2020.
  • Underlying financial conditions, a manufacturing upturn and stabilising activity in China are supportive of the outlook.
  • But with fiscal support set to wane and US-China trade relations again looking more fractious a rebound is unlikely and risks are tilted to the downside.
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Latest Analysis

  • May 17 2019

    United States: Macro Musings: Still waiting for answers

    The economy continues to grind out modest gains, but the latest reports have been underwhelming.

  • May 17 2019

    Counting the costs of the US-China trade war

    US-China trade has fallen steeply since mid-2018, with a $25 billion decline equivalent to around 0.5% of world trade. US exports to China have suffered the most, but the trade war has also hit Chines...

  • May 17 2019

    The return of ‘Japanification’ risk

    With the global slowdown dragging on inflation, the risk of ‘Japanification’ – economies sinking into a long period of low growth and low or negative inflation – has returned to the economic agenda.

  • May 17 2019

    Who’s really paying the ‘cost’ of US tariffs

    The US administration has suggested Chinese producers are bearing most of the ‘cost’ of US tariffs, with some support from economic theory and estimates from some models. But this view is largely cont...

  • May 17 2019

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  • Bloomberg highlights capital flows research by OE's Guillermo Tolosa that suggests US #Treasuries could be vulnerable to a sell-off as long-running support from #QE ends so that current low yields may not last: bloom.bg/2w3Mhib via @markets

  • With the broad MSCI index tracking #EM currencies falling to its lowest level since early January today and the #lira in Turkey down ~2% find out more about how our #FX Risk tool pinpoints FX hotspots, and can help predict looming currency crises: bit.ly/2LG8BZZ

  • After further attacks on #oil tankers in the Gulf, #Brent crude saw its sharpest one-day rise in a month, rising 1.5% to $71.70. We see increased risks of significantly higher oil prices and examine the impact of $100 a barrel crude: bit.ly/2W4e14G

  • Our FX Risk Tool provides a composite measure of vulnerability to #currencycrisis, measuring risks of sharp currency falls and is a strong leading indicator of currency crises, our testing shows: bit.ly/2VZW9rE

  • Sharp EM currency falls today highlight the prospect of further FX volatility in EMs. Despite significant adjustments since last year, the #Argentina peso #ARS and #Turkey lira #TRY are still the two #currencies most vulnerable, our new #FXRisk tool shows: bit.ly/2W1iTYq

  • New US #tariffs on China threaten to derail a nascent recovery in business confidence shown by our new Global Risk Survey. Business gloom had started to abate with 20% of respondents seeing the risk of a sharp slowdown declining in the past 3 mnths: bit.ly/2LCiveU

  • In #Canada, broad-based weakness in the economy leaves the #BankofCanada on hold, but it sees a pick-up in H2, with 2020 growth f/cast to rise to 2.1%. We disagree and see growth of 1.1% this yr and 1.2% next - which would make BoC's next move a rate cut: bit.ly/2VWE260