Oxford Economics

Latest Global Outlook - September / October 2021

We have downgraded our global economic forecasts for H2 2021 and Q1 2022 because of Delta-related disruption and the mounting evidence that supply-chain bottlenecks are likely to constrain activity for several more months. As a result, our world GDP growth forecast for this year has been lowered to 5.8% from 5.9% last month and 2022 is nudged down to 4.7% from 4.8%.

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CORONAVIRUS: Inflation pressures bubble up...                 WORLD POST COVID: Cities will bounce back...                GLOBAL SCENARIO REPORT: Delta Surge...                 BREXIT: Assessing the economic implications...
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Latest Analysis

  • Sep 20 2021

    Coronavirus Watch: Inflation pressures bubble up

    The recent broad-based rises in core inflation across a range of advanced economies has reopened the debate as to whether this year’s rise in inflation really is a purely transitory phenomenon.

  • Sep 20 2021

    When shortages end, where next for the global economy

    The global economy appears to be moving past supply shortages with little lasting impact. But the bigger story is that increasing signs of consumer and business caution might indicate that global grow...

  • Sep 17 2021

    United States: Macro Musings: A long road to normalcy

    The Delta variant dashed hopes that the economy would have returned to normal by now. But aspirations are delayed not demolished. The virus is taking a toll on growth but it is not derailing the expan...

  • Sep 17 2021

    United States: FOMC preview: Prepping to taper

    Despite a marked softening in economic activity from the rapid spread of the Delta variant and lingering supply chain disruptions the Fed will continue prepping for QE tapering at its FOMC policy meet...

  • Sep 17 2021

    Germany: Lifting the fiscal handbrake is easier said than done

    Recent political shifts have increased the odds of Germany loosening its tight national fiscal rules after the September elections, which could be good news given the drag from secular stagnation and...

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