Oxford Economics

Latest Global Outlook - November / December 2021

We still think the Q3 soft patch for the global recovery was temporary and expect a pick-up in growth in Q4. As a result, our world GDP growth forecasts for 2021 and 2022 are unchanged at 5.7% and 4.5% respectively. But the global recovery remains volatile due to supply-side problems. The slowdown in q/q GDP growth in Q3 from 1.4% to 0.9% was a response to disruption, especially in Asia, from higher Delta cases as well as ongoing supply-chain bottlenecks constraining production in some sectors.

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Latest Analysis

  • Nov 30 2021

    Eurozone: 2022 themes: Now for the hard part

    The eurozone pushed on with a strong recovery in 2021, but in many ways that’s been the easy part. With reopening tailwinds mostly exhausted, the bloc will face different challenges in 2022. We still...

  • Nov 30 2021

    Will Omicron derail the global recovery?

    It’s too soon to judge the health implications, let alone the economic effects, of the emerging Omicron Covid variant. But its rapid spread around the globe and the speedy re-imposition of restriction...

  • Nov 30 2021

    Japan: Transforming from a goods to a capital exporter

    Japan’s current account illustrates that nowadays the country is better categorised as an exporter of capital, than a goods exporter. Indeed, most of the current account surplus is from net-positive p...

  • Nov 29 2021

    United States: 2022 Themes: A ‘MESSI’ year ahead

    We anticipate 2022 will be a ‘MESSI’ (Moderating Expansion with Sticky Supply-driven Inflation) year for the US economy. After experiencing one of the most severe economic shocks of the past century i...

  • Nov 29 2021

    Australia: Three key issues for the inflation outlook

    The Q2 CPI data prompted a sharp re-evaluation of the outlook for inflation and interest rates across financial markets. We have also revised our forecasts higher, albeit more modestly, based on our v...

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