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July / August 2020

After a dire start to Q2 in April, the global economy has since staged a robust rebound as lockdown restrictions in many regions have eased. But despite a strong initial bounce, high unemployment and surging corporate debt will limit the scale of the revival in H2 and beyond. And the renewed rise in Covid-19 cases in parts of the world shows that considerable downside risks remain.

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Latest Analysis

  • Jul 30 2020

    United States: Recovery Tracker – The economy needs a booster shot

    Our Recovery Tracker rebounded slightly in the week ended July 17, rising 0.6ppts to 76.9. While the small weekly gain is no doubt encouraging, demand and employment – key pillars to this recovery – a...

  • Jul 30 2020

    V-shape consumer recovery? Not so fast…

    Incoming retail sales data for June suggest a V-shape recovery in consumer spending. But these data don’t tell the whole story. Recoveries are uneven across economies, and retail sales are a poor guid...

  • Jul 30 2020

    United Kingdom: MPC to weigh risks to the recovery

    While MPC members haven’t been devoid of optimism, risks to the outlook have dominated recent statements. We don’t expect the MPC to change policy at August’s meeting, but the committee may be willing...

  • Jul 30 2020

    Eurozone: Recovery of business investment hangs by a thread

    We expect the sharp drop in demand, elevated uncertainty, and fragile financial conditions to trigger the largest fall in business investment since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). The current mechan...

  • Jul 29 2020

    United States: FOMC maintains a very dovish stance

    As expected, the FOMC reaffirmed its extremely dovish forward guidance. Given the recent stalling of economic activity linked to the rising number of virus cases, Chairman Powell retained a very cauti...

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In the media

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Latest tweets

  • Aug 07 2020

    Chart of the week: Why ending the easing cycle in Brazil now would be a mistake

  • Aug 07 2020

    US Recovery Tracker reveals a fragile economy

  • Aug 07 2020

    Oxford Economics and SAP surveyed 2,000 executives from small and midsize organisations about their priorities, #challenges, and #digital maturity.

    To read the report click here

  • Aug 06 2020

    We worked with Google Cloud to survey 1,000 CIOs around the world and in seven industries about the ways they partner with other organisations to meet business goals and the #technologies they rely on to make those #partnerships productive.

    Read here

  • Aug 04 2020

    Recovery dynamics have turned negative across most of the country, with the Recovery Trackers of 41 states falling in the second week of July. On a regional basis, only the Northeast didn’t record a weekly decline. Read the full research briefing here:

  • Aug 04 2020

    Largely as we expected, GDP data for Q2 published so far show very steep declines of 10%-15% in major economies. Early indications for Q2 for some emerging markets suggest their GDP slumps will be as bad or worse.

  • Jul 31 2020

    US Recovery Tracker - the economy needs a booster shot