The leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis

July / August 2020

After a dire start to Q2 in April, the global economy has since staged a robust rebound as lockdown restrictions in many regions have eased. But despite a strong initial bounce, high unemployment and surging corporate debt will limit the scale of the revival in H2 and beyond. And the renewed rise in Covid-19 cases in parts of the world shows that considerable downside risks remain.

Download free report


Forecasts and models

Oxford Economics is a leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis, with the world’s only fully integrated economic model and 250 full-time economists, we help our clients track, analyse, and model country, industry, and urban trends.

Learn more

Our economists and thought leadership specialists are expert at applying advanced economic tools to provide valuable insights into today’s most pressing business, financial, and policy issues.

Learn more

Latest Analysis

NEW: Tourism - COVID-19 Scenario Dashboards

We have launched a new Coronavirus (COVID-19) scenario dashboard for the tourism industry, to help companies in the market plan and manage their response to the crisis.

Learn more

Introducing: Global Sustainability Model

A new way to measure your company’s environmental impact

Register interest

African Forecasting Service

One-stop solution for African insights. Comprehensive analysis of short & long-term economic prospects to inform investment strategies, expansion plans & operations.

Learn more

We run an extensive, worldwide programme of illuminating forums, roundtables and webinars with presentations from our economic experts.

What's on?

In the media

See all tweets

Latest tweets

  • Aug 04 2020

    Largely as we expected, GDP data for Q2 published so far show very steep declines of 10%-15% in major economies. Early indications for Q2 for some emerging markets suggest their GDP slumps will be as bad or worse.

  • Jul 31 2020

    US Recovery Tracker - the economy needs a booster shot

  • Jul 31 2020

    Services-oriented states are suffering the greatest disruptions from the #coronavirus pandemic. Not only did these states sustain greater damage than goods-oriented states during the initial downturn, but their recoveries have lagged.

    Read more here

  • Jul 31 2020

    Chart of the week: US coronavirus reproduction rates

  • Jul 30 2020

    Our US Recovery Tracker rebounded slightly last week. But the demand & employment components are showing some worrying fissures just as Congress is debating additional fiscal aid. And despite the national increase, the Recovery Trackers of 41 states fell:

  • Jul 30 2020

    Following this week's FOMC meeting, we look for the Fed to adopt explicit forward guidance sometime in the fall, following the completion of its policy framework review. We forecast rate lift-off will not take place until 2024:

  • Jul 30 2020

    While incoming retail sales data suggest a V-shape recovery, these data don't tell the whole story. Recoveries are uneven across economies, while retail sales are a poor guide to overall consumer spending in the current environment: