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June / July 2020

Latest news confirms that the global economy suffered a dire April as peak lockdown was reached. There are growing signs that activity in some parts of the world may have begun to recover in May as lockdown restrictions started to ease but, while we expect a near-term rebound in activity, we now forecast that world GDP will shrink by just over 5% this year.

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  • Jul 03 2020

    Less stringent lockdowns should mean the Nordic economies endure smaller falls in GDP than the eurozone. But Sweden's light-touch approach will not leave it much better off than its neighbours due to voluntary social distancing and supply chain disruption:

  • Jul 03 2020

    The key economic issues for Hong Kong are if it will retain its role as a gateway in & out of China and its status as a global financial hub. Our baseline is that Hong Kong will broadly maintain its current role, if perhaps not as prominently as before:

  • Jul 03 2020

    Our measure of China's credit impulse saw the fastest increase since end-2017 in May, which will support the economic recovery. This pickup has been in line with the mandate given during May's NPC meetings and recent policy easing measures:

  • Jul 01 2020

    Our US Recovery Tracker rose by 2.3ppts in the week ending June 19, having fallen the week before. Stronger mobility and rebounding equity prices drove the gain, but rising COVID infections led to the first decline in the health tracker since mid-April:

  • Jul 01 2020

    The Fed is engineering ultra-loose policy with the aim of making progress toward reaching its dual mandates. However, while providing a stimulus worth >2ppts of GDP growth, its actions have lifted asset prices more than economic activity or price inflation

  • Jul 01 2020

    The relaxation of lockdowns has triggered a rebound in global oil demand and we have nudged up our oil price forecast for 2020/21. But the balance of risks has again shifted to the downside. The latest update from our Oil Forecast and Scenarios Service:

  • Jul 01 2020

    While Singapore's phase 2 easing came a few weeks faster than we had expected, we still expect a dismal GDP performance in Q2 given strict containment measures lasted over 10 weeks. We expect GDP to fall by 6% in 2020, one of the largest drops in APAC: