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July / August 2020

After a dire start to Q2 in April, the global economy has since staged a robust rebound as lockdown restrictions in many regions have eased. But despite a strong initial bounce, high unemployment and surging corporate debt will limit the scale of the revival in H2 and beyond. And the renewed rise in Covid-19 cases in parts of the world shows that considerable downside risks remain.

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CORONAVIRUS - LATEST UPDATES AND ANALYSIS: Retail surge unlikely to last...

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  • Jul 10 2020

    We expect the massive easing in financial conditions since March and strong initial rebound in activity to encourage the #ECB to hold off any major policy changes at next week's meeting. But we may see a debate about PEPP composition. Our preview is here:

  • Jul 10 2020

    Our new State Recovery Tracker reveals an uneven recovery across the US. Northeast and Midwest, which implemented more restrictive measures early in the pandemic, experienced greater initial declines but are now the only ones maintaining upward momentum:

  • Jul 10 2020

    During the COVID-19 crisis the real estate sector demonstrated resilience and is predicted to have a slow yet strong recovery. Click here to get more insights on the impact of the crisis on the sector:

    oxfordeconomics #epra #reits # listedrealestate

  • Jul 09 2020

    Our report for EPRA analyse the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on European listed real estate to shed light on the impact of the crisis on property markets. To get more insights, click here:

    oxfordeconomics #epra #reits #covid #listedrealestate

  • Jul 09 2020

    Our US Recovery Tracker has fallen for the second time in three weeks. While five of the six dimensions increased, those gains were smaller than in the previous week, and they were offset by the sharpest plunge in the health index since April. More here:

  • Jul 09 2020

    Our LatAm Recovery Tracker suggests GDP could surprise on the upside in Q2 in Brazil, Mexico & Peru. But by prioritizing the economy over health, most countries continue to see rising infections and deaths. This risks a need to reimpose lockdowns in Q3:

  • Jul 09 2020

    Our 250 economists have updated our monthly forecasts. After a dire start to Q2, the global economy has rebounded robustly as lockdown restrictions have eased. We have raised our 2020 GDP forecast by 0.5pp to -4.5%, but considerable downside risks remain: