LATEST GLOBAL OUTLOOK
July / August 2020
After a dire start to Q2 in April, the global economy has since staged a robust rebound as lockdown restrictions in many regions have eased. But despite a strong initial bounce, high unemployment and surging corporate debt will limit the scale of the revival in H2 and beyond. And the renewed rise in Covid-19 cases in parts of the world shows that considerable downside risks remain.
CORONAVIRUS - LATEST UPDATES AND ANALYSIS: Retail surge unlikely to last...
Oxford Economics is a leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis, with the world’s only fully integrated economic model and 250 full-time economists, we help our clients track, analyse, and model country, industry, and urban trends.
Learn moreOur economists and thought leadership specialists are expert at applying advanced economic tools to provide valuable insights into today’s most pressing business, financial, and policy issues.
Learn moreStates are struggling with the Hobson’s choice of staying open or shutting down again. At stake are the economy’s performance and the fate of the health crisis. Neither looks promising at the moment.
Treasury Secretary Mnuchin revealed the outline of Republicans’ opening bid in negotiations over the next round of fiscal stimulus for later this month. New checks to households, but with a lower inco...
The massive easing in financial conditions since March and the strong initial rebound in economic activity will encourage the ECB to hold off any major policy change at its upcoming meeting. Given the...
PMIs for June revealed an uneven recovery in the Middle East despite lockdown restrictions easing further in the region. Business conditions returned to growth territory in the UAE, slower declines we...
The July 7 restructuring deal between Ecuador’s government and major bondholders would provide sufficient medium-term debt relief and restore long-term debt sustainability. It implies a net present va...
Oxford Economics in collaboration with the EPRA have launched a report analysing the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on European listed real estate.
A new report by Oxford Economics sheds light on the potential costs of restricting competition in the provision of 5G network equipment across 31 European countries. The study models the consequences... more
SHRM (Society for Human Resource Management) and Oxford Economics are partnering to help business and government leaders better understand the impact of the novel coronavirus on the US workforce and b... more
This report explores the short-term effects of Covid-19 on the financial sustainability of the creative industries in the UK.
This report examines the evidence so far on the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the food industry and supply chain across the Asia-Pacific region. The paper marks the first in a three-paper series... more
We have launched a new Coronavirus (COVID-19) scenario dashboard for the tourism industry, to help companies in the market plan and manage their response to the crisis.
One-stop solution for African insights. Comprehensive analysis of short & long-term economic prospects to inform investment strategies, expansion plans & operations.
Learn moreWe run an extensive, worldwide programme of illuminating forums, roundtables and webinars with presentations from our economic experts.
What's on?We expect the massive easing in financial conditions since March and strong initial rebound in activity to encourage the #ECB to hold off any major policy changes at next week's meeting. But we may see a debate about PEPP composition. Our preview is here: bit.ly/2ZhKxRC
Our new State Recovery Tracker reveals an uneven recovery across the US. Northeast and Midwest, which implemented more restrictive measures early in the pandemic, experienced greater initial declines but are now the only ones maintaining upward momentum: bit.ly/3iQqzFC
During the COVID-19 crisis the real estate sector demonstrated resilience and is predicted to have a slow yet strong recovery. Click here to get more insights on the impact of the crisis on the sector: bit.ly/2Z9WqJo
Our report for EPRA analyse the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on European listed real estate to shed light on the impact of the crisis on property markets. To get more insights, click here: bit.ly/3fdcbVv
Our US Recovery Tracker has fallen for the second time in three weeks. While five of the six dimensions increased, those gains were smaller than in the previous week, and they were offset by the sharpest plunge in the health index since April. More here: bit.ly/3fbRk4Y
Our LatAm Recovery Tracker suggests GDP could surprise on the upside in Q2 in Brazil, Mexico & Peru. But by prioritizing the economy over health, most countries continue to see rising infections and deaths. This risks a need to reimpose lockdowns in Q3: bit.ly/2ZdU2S1
Our 250 economists have updated our monthly forecasts. After a dire start to Q2, the global economy has rebounded robustly as lockdown restrictions have eased. We have raised our 2020 GDP forecast by 0.5pp to -4.5%, but considerable downside risks remain: bit.ly/2BVIqKD