Oxford Economics is a leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis, with the world’s only fully integrated economic model and 250 full-time economists, we help our clients track, analyse, and model country, industry, and urban trends.
- Nov 07 2019
MENA Weekly: PMIs continue to diverge; Lebanon’s rating cut again
The regional PMIs for October were another mixed bag; momentum in the non-oil private sector in Saudi Arabia reached a four-year high, while performance in the UAE remained at the weakest level in mor...
- Nov 06 2019
United States: Why fiscal policy is key to combating a downturn
With policy rates already so low they constrain the Federal Reserve’s ability to combat a recession, we think fiscal policy should do more to buffer the impact of a downturn. Fiscal policy tools inclu...
- Nov 06 2019
Slowing growth revives deflation concerns
Over recent months, the global economic downturn has sparked a renewed rise in concerns about deflation or sustained very low inflation (“lowflation”) in the advanced economies. We think there’s good...
- Nov 06 2019
Launching our GCC non-oil momentum indicators (NOMI)
The lack of comprehensive and high-frequency activity data hampers the ability to capture turning points in GCC business cycles in a timely manner. Our new composite non-oil momentum indicators (NOMI)...
- Nov 06 2019
Eurozone: Uneven fiscal response won’t stave off recession
As global growth slows, the eurozone is highly vulnerable to a sharp slowdown, and we think policymakers are woefully unprepared to respond. Monetary policy is near its limits, while lack of central f...
The contribution of BAE Systems to the UK economy
In 2018 BAE Systems sustained 124,000 jobs in the UK, supported a £9.3 billion contribution to GDP and a total tax contribution of £2.4 billion to the Exchequer.
Global Transactions Forecast 2020
Baker McKenzie and Oxford Economics are delighted to present the fifth edition of the Global Transactions Forecast, examining the global deals landscape.
AI, Automation, and Appetites: How Technology Will Feed the Future
From how food is grown and formulated, to where and what we eat, the food industry is looking to emerging technologies to address entrenched challenges, according to our latest study.
In the media
With the budget in balance and debt levels and financing costs low, Australia is well placed to loosen fiscal policy. Our modelling shows that raising public investment would be the federal government's most effective lever: bit.ly/2Kstkxk
Our top calls for 2020 show mixed prospects for the Eurozone. On the plus side, we expect the German automotive sector to turn the corner. But the political situation will see a significant widening in Italian spreads. More here: bit.ly/2CL1KH4
We present our top calls for 2020. We expect North America to disappoint, with the Fed forced into another rate cut and a high risk of recession in Canada. More here: bit.ly/32SQXW2
We present our top 10 calls for 2020. We are more pessimistic than consensus, but the global economy should at least arrest its slide. But the risks are skewed to the downside, with the focus on financial, rather than macroeconomic, imbalances. More here: bit.ly/34Xhovg
A strong #USD has been negative for EMs but the impact has varied widely. Our cross-country scorecard of vulnerability to dollar strength has been effective at predicting variation in total bond returns over the past eighteen months: bit.ly/2rJepbu
The sharp decline in interest rates has given Spain some welcome fiscal breathing space. But it continues to suffer from a persistent structural deficit and political paralysis means it is unlikely that reforms will be passed to tackle the problems bit.ly/2ObNnRF
Our policy constraints scorecard shows a clear link between post-crisis underperformance and constraints on the ability to provide monetary and fiscal policy support. 7 Eurozone countries have suffered particularly badly, with 5 still constrained today: bit.ly/36ZhZhG