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LATEST GLOBAL OUTLOOK
November / December 2019

  • Activity data suggest the world slowdown is not over. October’s global composite PMI plumbed a new low for the year, close to troughs in the prior two slowdowns of the past decade.
  • Whether slowing services weaken more depends on the resilience of advanced economy consumers. With still-solid jobs growth, consumer spending and sentiment gauges do not suggest households are tightening belts.
  • Policy stimulus, stabilising in trade tensions, and strengthening of some emerging markets could help growth level-off in mid-2020. We forecast 2.5% global growth in 2020 and 2021 – a long way from recession, but very subdued.
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  • From next June, the African Continental Free Trade Area #AfCFTA aims to bring together 54 African countries with a population of over one billion and a combined GDP of over $3 trillion. We explore the implications in a new analysis with Baker McKenzie: bit.ly/3331Rst

  • In the big data era, #trust has become the defining issue for organizations, reshaping their offerings and even their business models. This key finding is explored in our new C-Suite study with IBM's Institute for Business Value @IBMIBV Find out more: bit.ly/2KDDwmE

  • Our analysis of the persistent shortage of safe assets for investors is also highlighted on Bloomberg by the excellent @johnauthers : bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… via @bopinion

  • The @FT and @TomStub highlight our recent #StrategicAssetAllocation research from @TukkerMichiel of our strategy service examining why a global shortage of safe assets is set to worsen in coming years, despite increasing issuance of US #Treasuries #USTs: on.ft.com/2KHiJia

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  • AR promises to make all the world a stage for immersive experiences. Check out our latest study bit.ly/331bPKY to see how AR adopters are already capitalizing on AR’s ability to deliver improved business outcomes #AR #RealReality #Augmented #AI

  • In #Japan the ratio of large companies' current profits to assets has hit a record high. This is due to rising income from overseas operations and we expect this to continue, which will help to stabilize profits in the long run: bit.ly/2r7X4Zq