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LATEST GLOBAL OUTLOOK
November / December 2019

  • Activity data suggest the world slowdown is not over. October’s global composite PMI plumbed a new low for the year, close to troughs in the prior two slowdowns of the past decade.
  • Whether slowing services weaken more depends on the resilience of advanced economy consumers. With still-solid jobs growth, consumer spending and sentiment gauges do not suggest households are tightening belts.
  • Policy stimulus, stabilising in trade tensions, and strengthening of some emerging markets could help growth level-off in mid-2020. We forecast 2.5% global growth in 2020 and 2021 – a long way from recession, but very subdued.
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Latest Analysis

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    EM decoupling is hard to do

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  • Nov 19 2019

    United States: ‘Tis the season to kick the budget can down the road

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  • Nov 18 2019

    Global Macro Themes and Asset Views Chartbook, November 2019

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  • Nov 15 2019

    United States: Macro Musings: A fork in the road.

    The fault line in the nation’s bifurcated economy is growing wider. Consumers are supporting growth while the drag from businesses is deepening. But consumer spending has been underwhelming in recent...

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  • From next June, the African Continental Free Trade Area #AfCFTA aims to bring together 54 African countries with a population of over one billion and a combined GDP of over $3 trillion. We explore the implications in a new analysis with Baker McKenzie: bit.ly/3331Rst

  • In the big data era, #trust has become the defining issue for organizations, reshaping their offerings and even their business models. This key finding is explored in our new C-Suite study with IBM's Institute for Business Value @IBMIBV Find out more: bit.ly/2KDDwmE

  • Our analysis of the persistent shortage of safe assets for investors is also highlighted on Bloomberg by the excellent @johnauthers : bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… via @bopinion

  • The @FT and @TomStub highlight our recent #StrategicAssetAllocation research from @TukkerMichiel of our strategy service examining why a global shortage of safe assets is set to worsen in coming years, despite increasing issuance of US #Treasuries #USTs: on.ft.com/2KHiJia

  • The Hays Global #Skills Index 2019/20, produced with OE, analyses the challenges facing organisations in their labour market as they search for the most sought-after talent. Read the full report at: bit.ly/35j4wQ7

  • AR promises to make all the world a stage for immersive experiences. Check out our latest study bit.ly/331bPKY to see how AR adopters are already capitalizing on AR’s ability to deliver improved business outcomes #AR #RealReality #Augmented #AI

  • In #Japan the ratio of large companies' current profits to assets has hit a record high. This is due to rising income from overseas operations and we expect this to continue, which will help to stabilize profits in the long run: bit.ly/2r7X4Zq