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July - August 2019

  • A global slowdown is continuing and risks are rising that this year will see the weakest world growth in the post-crisis period. But with central banks set to turn dovish words into action soon, recession risks are still low.
  • We see two US rate cuts in Q3 and another in Q1, 2020. We also expect a cut later this year from the European Central Bank, which may well also resume QE.
  • Lower US rates and a 2020 US slowdown may eventually weaken the dollar, but this will not be a major fillip. We forecast 2019 global growth of 2.7% rising to 2.8% in 2020 in response to the loosening in monetary policy.
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  • Our 250 economists have updated our monthly forecasts - download a FREE
    SUMMARY: Continuing global slowdown means rising risks 2019 will see the weakest post-crisis growth. But impending action by central banks means recession risks are still low.

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  • #FX RISK - ON-DEMAND WEBINAR Our recent webinar ‘Four countries and forex risk’ is now available on demand. Produced with Control Risks, it takes a whirlwind tour of #forex risk in key #EM economies – #Turkey #Argentina #Russia and #Colombia ... Watch now:

  • Watch testimony by OE’s Hamilton Galloway on China’s challenge to US #rail car manufacturing before the US House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee here:

  • Our #FXRisk tool points to #Iran, #Egypt, #Lebanon and #Tunisia as most vulnerable currency regimes in #MiddleEast and North #Africa (#MENA). Among the Gulf's #GCC countries, #Bahrain and Oman look less resilient, but neither is on the cusp of a crisis: