Oxford Economics is a leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis, with the world’s only fully integrated economic model and 250 full-time economists, we help our clients track, analyse, and model country, industry, and urban trends.
- Nov 14 2019
EM and dollar strength: this time’s more resilient
A strong dollar may be negative for emerging markets by increasing the burden of dollar-denominated debt, lowering commodity prices, choking off capital inflows, or by forcing up interest rates and tr...
- Nov 13 2019
United States: Powell: In a good place, but risks remain
Fed Chair Powell in his testimony to the Congressional Joint Economic Committee reiterated that the economy and monetary policy remain in a “good place”. He continues to signal that the bar has been s...
- Nov 13 2019
Global: Consumers remain resilient for now
The risk of a substantial slowdown in global GDP growth in 2020 remains high. However, in the nearer term we continue to think household spending in the advanced economies will remain pretty resilient...
- Nov 13 2019
Spain: “Lower for longer” can’t mask fiscal troubles
The sharp decline in interest rates across Europe is providing highly indebted countries with welcome fiscal breathing space. For Spain, though, the ECB’s “lower for longer” monetary policy cannot com...
- Nov 13 2019
“Whatever it takes” may not be enough
Concerns over risks to the global economy from actual and perceived limits to fiscal and monetary policy are well-founded. A decade on from the global financial crisis, evidence highlights chronic dem...
The contribution of BAE Systems to the UK economy
In 2018 BAE Systems sustained 124,000 jobs in the UK, supported a £9.3 billion contribution to GDP and a total tax contribution of £2.4 billion to the Exchequer.
Global Transactions Forecast 2020
Baker McKenzie and Oxford Economics are delighted to present the fifth edition of the Global Transactions Forecast, examining the global deals landscape.
AI, Automation, and Appetites: How Technology Will Feed the Future
From how food is grown and formulated, to where and what we eat, the food industry is looking to emerging technologies to address entrenched challenges, according to our latest study.
In the media
With the budget in balance and debt levels and financing costs low, Australia is well placed to loosen fiscal policy. Our modelling shows that raising public investment would be the federal government's most effective lever: bit.ly/2Kstkxk
Our top calls for 2020 show mixed prospects for the Eurozone. On the plus side, we expect the German automotive sector to turn the corner. But the political situation will see a significant widening in Italian spreads. More here: bit.ly/2CL1KH4
We present our top calls for 2020. We expect North America to disappoint, with the Fed forced into another rate cut and a high risk of recession in Canada. More here: bit.ly/32SQXW2
We present our top 10 calls for 2020. We are more pessimistic than consensus, but the global economy should at least arrest its slide. But the risks are skewed to the downside, with the focus on financial, rather than macroeconomic, imbalances. More here: bit.ly/34Xhovg
A strong #USD has been negative for EMs but the impact has varied widely. Our cross-country scorecard of vulnerability to dollar strength has been effective at predicting variation in total bond returns over the past eighteen months: bit.ly/2rJepbu
The sharp decline in interest rates has given Spain some welcome fiscal breathing space. But it continues to suffer from a persistent structural deficit and political paralysis means it is unlikely that reforms will be passed to tackle the problems bit.ly/2ObNnRF
Our policy constraints scorecard shows a clear link between post-crisis underperformance and constraints on the ability to provide monetary and fiscal policy support. 7 Eurozone countries have suffered particularly badly, with 5 still constrained today: bit.ly/36ZhZhG