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LATEST GLOBAL OUTLOOK
January / February 2020

  • Global growth likely softened further into 2020 but this weakening is gradual while activity and sentiment show tentative improvement.
  • US-China trade tensions have eased but we doubt this will be a major fillip, full reversal of new tariffs is a distant prospect, and this is partly offset by recent conflict between the US and Iran.
  • We see a Q1 low for global growth but doubt it will herald a strong rebound. Policy actions will start to feed through but we also doubt these are a game-changer. We forecast 2020 global growth of just 2.5%, the weakest since the global financial crisis, though with diminished downside risks.
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  • In the @FT OE's Nafez Zouk discusses the risks of #Lebanon defaulting on its sovereign debt, with only a slim chance that it will meet repayments on a bond due in April while the government continues to burn through foreign exchange reserves: on.ft.com/2sPwkhG

  • We are pleased to announce our new Oil Forecast and Scenarios Service, offering a comprehensive approach to assessing #oilprice risks. The service combines in-depth intelligence with state-of-the-art models of #crude markets. Find out more: bit.ly/30LKlJF

  • Our 250 economists have updated our monthly forecasts - download a FREE SUMMARY: bit.ly/2Tq96tn. We see a further slowdown into 2020 and world growth of 2.5% this yr and next, the weakest since 2009. But despite heightened recession risks, we think this shd be avoided.

  • The @FT highlights our analysis of the costs of the US-China #tradewar and the likelihood of a prolonged toll with a risk of significant decoupling of the two economies: on.ft.com/3ahXFtK via @financialtimes

  • OE @OxfordEconomics takes honours in adjusted ranking from Peter Dixon @EomicsUK of the David Smith @dsmitheconomics ratings of the most accurate #UKeconomy forecasters...

  • The Hays Global #Skills Index 2019/20, produced with OE, analyses the challenges facing organisations in their labour market as they search for the most sought-after talent. Read the full report at: bit.ly/382OkE5

  • Our 250 economists have updated our monthly forecasts - download a FREE SUMMARY: bit.ly/39YHpgW. We see a further slowdown into 2020 and world growth of 2.5% this yr and next, the weakest since 2009. But despite heightened recession risks, we think this shd be avoided.