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- Nov 30 2018
US, Mexico and Canada sign new NAFTA deal at G-20 Summit
The leaders from the US, Canada and Mexico officially signed the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) this morning at the G20 Summit in Buenos Aires. The deal will now need to be ratified by lawmakers i...
- Nov 29 2018
United States: Cautious Fed after December hike
The FOMC minutes from the November 7-8 meeting underscored policymakers’ caution in the face of fading domestic tailwinds, slower global growth, escalating trade tensions, and financial market turbule...
- Nov 29 2018
United States: Fed Chair Powell signals shift in “landing zone” ( Oxford Economics Fed call change)
In a speech at the New York Economic Club, Fed Chair Powell highlighted that interest rates are “just below” neutral signaling a slightly more dovish monetary policy tilt. Notwithstanding, Powell reit...
- Nov 29 2018
Italy: A thin line between sustainable debt and real vulnerability
Italy’s weak public finances keep it on the edge of fiscal sustainability. Yet our below-consensus GDP forecast does not suggest an imminent fiscal crisis. That’s mainly because existing Italian debt...
- Nov 29 2018
Europe: The dangerous games in the Sea of Azov
Russia’s attack on Ukraine’s ships in the Black Sea, as they were trying to enter the Sea of Azov, is a stark reminder that the conflict between the two countries is far from “frozen” and opens a new...
The impact of a 'no-deal' Brexit on travel and tourism
A “no-deal” Brexit would cause a 5% drop in UK outbound travel and tourism trips in 2020, because of the stifled economic backdrop and impact of a weaker pound. Ireland and Spain would be the hardest... more
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In the media
Structural change in corporate savings is a threat to global growth. Firms’ net savings are up 2-3ppts of GDP since early 90s. Many factors - but incentives to execs to prioritise stock buybacks over investment risk a long-term, low-growth feedback loop: bit.ly/2S5Zbpb
Against consensus - but as we forecast - in #Russia, the central bank #CBR ordered another rate rise on Friday, to 7.75%. With a weaker ruble and impending Jan'y VAT hike set to take inflation to 6% in H1 '19 vs a 4% CBR target, the move isn't surprising: bit.ly/2S3WCE4
In 2019, the key theme for #USeconomy will be the search for a "soft-landing". Headwinds from higher input and borrowing costs, #protectionism and slowing global expansion will bring US growth down to 2% by end-2019. Our top calls for the new year: bit.ly/2EAjgkv
Our 250 economists have updated our monthly forecasts - download a FREE exec summary here: bit.ly/2S6ilLL. The world economy will end 2018 on a soft note, but we expect the global expansion to regain momentum in 2019, with 2.8% global growth, after 3.0% for 2018.
RT @GregDaco: About 50% economists surveyed by @WSJ expect the #Fed to pause rate increases in the first half of 2019. Most see 2 rate hike…
RT @GregDaco: US #retail sales top estimates w/ 0.2% rise in Nov despite -2.3% #gasoline stations sales Core sales +0.9% after +0.7%in Oct!…
RT @GregDaco: Looking at momentum, #retail sales up 4.2% y/y while core sales +4.4%. These data point to solid consumer spending in Q4 arou…