Oxford Economics is a leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis, with the world’s only fully integrated economic model and 200 full-time economists, we help our clients track, analyse, and model country, industry, and urban trends.
Our economists and thought leadership specialists are expert at applying advanced economic tools to provide valuable insights into today’s most pressing business, financial, and policy issues.
- Dec 06 2018
United States: Yield curve flattening not grounds for panicking
An inverted yield curve is not something to dismiss, as policymakers who did in the mid-2000s will attest to. Even so, the recent flattening of the US curve has not led us to revise up the risk of a g...
- Dec 06 2018
United Kingdom: ‘No-deal’ Brexit to knock 2% off travel and tourism GDP
A “no-deal” Brexit would cause a 5% drop in UK outbound travel and tourism trips in 2020, because of the stifled economic backdrop and impact of a weaker pound. Ireland and Spain would be the hardest...
- Dec 06 2018
United States: Shutdown showdown postponed until Christmas
Congress and President Trump have agreed to fund the government through December 21. We think Trump and Democrats in Congress will compromise on border security funding and avert a partial government...
- Dec 05 2018
Eurozone: Top calls for 2019: At cruising speed but risks abound
Our top 10 calls for the European economy in 2019 include key factors already incorporated in our baseline forecasts as well as potential risks. Generally, we expect stable growth next year of around...
- Dec 04 2018
United States: Treasuries gain on short-squeeze and undue pessimism
The Treasury rally and curve flattening have accelerated over the past week. The 2-year/5-year spread has inverted for the first time since June 2007 as market participants reprice expectations for gr...
The impact of a 'no-deal' Brexit on travel and tourism
A “no-deal” Brexit would cause a 5% drop in UK outbound travel and tourism trips in 2020, because of the stifled economic backdrop and impact of a weaker pound. Ireland and Spain would be the hardest... more
The no-excuses way to win in a digital world
Oxford Economics fielded and analyzed a survey of 2,280 executives from over 60 countries to identify the drivers of digital success.
We now offer comprehensive forecasts and analysis for more than 3,500 sub-national economies in the US, spanning all 50 states, 382 metro areas and 3,142 counties.
A rigorous and transparent framework to measure the vulnerability of 166 countries to a sovereign crisis or a sovereign distress.
Comprehensive analysis of national and urban economics in Africa.
We run an extensive, worldwide programme of illuminating forums and roundtables with presentations from our economic experts.
In the media
Structural change in corporate savings is a threat to global growth. Firms’ net savings are up 2-3ppts of GDP since early 90s. Many factors - but incentives to execs to prioritise stock buybacks over investment risk a long-term, low-growth feedback loop: bit.ly/2S5Zbpb
Against consensus - but as we forecast - in #Russia, the central bank #CBR ordered another rate rise on Friday, to 7.75%. With a weaker ruble and impending Jan'y VAT hike set to take inflation to 6% in H1 '19 vs a 4% CBR target, the move isn't surprising: bit.ly/2S3WCE4
In 2019, the key theme for #USeconomy will be the search for a "soft-landing". Headwinds from higher input and borrowing costs, #protectionism and slowing global expansion will bring US growth down to 2% by end-2019. Our top calls for the new year: bit.ly/2EAjgkv
Our 250 economists have updated our monthly forecasts - download a FREE exec summary here: bit.ly/2S6ilLL. The world economy will end 2018 on a soft note, but we expect the global expansion to regain momentum in 2019, with 2.8% global growth, after 3.0% for 2018.
RT @GregDaco: About 50% economists surveyed by @WSJ expect the #Fed to pause rate increases in the first half of 2019. Most see 2 rate hike…
RT @GregDaco: US #retail sales top estimates w/ 0.2% rise in Nov despite -2.3% #gasoline stations sales Core sales +0.9% after +0.7%in Oct!…
RT @GregDaco: Looking at momentum, #retail sales up 4.2% y/y while core sales +4.4%. These data point to solid consumer spending in Q4 arou…