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United States: Solid Q2 activity keeps recession odds low
While the recent escalation of trade tensions has raised the odds of a trade war, the economy remains well supported in the near-term with Q2 GDP growth likely to be the strongest in four years around...
Japan: Abe unlikely to meet even his deferred fiscal targets
Prime Minister Abe’s new fiscal consolidation plan prioritizes growth over hard fiscal choices and moves the target for achieving a primary budget balance surplus by five years to 2025. Given the plan...
United States: Declining affordability to keep plaguing housing market
Rising home prices and higher mortgage rates continue to make buying a home less affordable. We expect homebuying affordability to decline by 9% this year, after a fall of 6% in 2017. As a result, we'...
Global economy robust to higher oil, but EM vulnerable
We do not envisage major central banks being pricked into deflationary action by the oil spike as there are limited concerns over a wage-price spiral. But further rises – say to $100pb – would sour th...
Brazil: Why strikes will cripple growth and swell inflation
Nobody expected that state-controlled Petrobras’s decision in October 2016 to stop subsidizing domestic fuel prices would two years later result in a truck drivers’ strike causing widespread fuel and ...
Maximizing Mobile Value: Is BYOD holding you back?
Mobile work is a strategic priority for many companies, but the fundamental decisions that enable it are too often based on short-term thinking and ad hoc policies.
To better understand the value o... more
Chatbots are here to stay
Companies must become intelligent enterprises to thrive and grow in the coming years. Conversational bots powered by AI will play an important role in that transition.
The economic impact of lending through Funding Circle
One lasting effect of the global financial crisis has been the emergence and expansion of non-bank sources of finance for small businesses. With banks restricting their lending to SMEs during the ensu... more
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In the media
In @FTAlphaville, OE's Guillermo Tolosa explains our in-depth analysis of global capital flows and risks for bond markets from a prospective liquidity squeeze, triggered by the end of #ECB #QE: bit.ly/2I2cFfP
Political developments in #Italy may mean a bumpy ride for bond markets in months ahead. But market discipline is likely to ensure fears about major fiscal loosening that stoked default concerns don’t materialise. And Italy still has some fiscal headroom: bit.ly/2JXOFjd
Pres Trump upped the ante in the US-China #trade conflict, bringing a full-blown #tradewar closer. If new #tariffs by both sides go ahead it will hv significant econ impact on China, the US and rest of the world at a sensitive time for the #globaleconomy: bit.ly/2JZTipB
RT @GregDaco: Here come the #ChinaTariffs! @OxfordEconomics estimates that 25% tariffs on $50bn imports + retaliation will reduce #GDP by 0…
We rank the #EmergingMarket winners and losers from rising #oil, slowing #trade, and #liquidity pressures #emergingmarkets. #EMs most at risk include #Turkey, #Argentina, #Ukraine and some in Asia: bit.ly/2M19h7u
Our 200 economists have updated our monthly forecasts. Trade tensions and dearer oil may worsen an ongoing global slowdown. But we don't expect sharp momentum loss and maintain our world growth forecasts at 3.1% this yr, 2.9% next. FREE exec summary here: bit.ly/2JVRz85
#Openplanoffices threaten employee wellness and #productivity while failing to deliver on #collaboration, growth and other critical business goals, our new study with Plantronics finds. It shows key benefits are going unrealised. Find out more: bit.ly/2K28iGL