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LATEST GLOBAL OUTLOOK
September/October 2018

  • Protectionism, tightening global liquidity and emerging market concerns remain key threats to the global economic expansion.
  • But while these factors may trigger slower growth in 2019 and beyond, there is little compelling evidence of significant loss of growth momentum.
  • We continue to expect global GDP growth to ease gently, from 3.1% this year to 2.8% in 2019, with weaker real income growth, household spending and investment in advanced economies.
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Latest Analysis

  • Sep 07 2018

    United States: Macro Musings

    Another solid jobs report highlighted a week of positive economic news and clears the way for two more Fed rate hikes this year

  • Sep 07 2018

    Global growth: softening further in August

    Our advanced economies (AE) growth indicator for August points to a continuing and broad-based loss of economic momentum.

  • Sep 06 2018

    United States: Pro-Trump states stand to lose most in a trade war

    A trade war with China would cause significant economic damage in states highly dependent on goods-producing industries and trade, including South Carolina, Indiana, and Michigan. With President Trump...

  • Sep 06 2018

    Financial conditions continue to stabilise

    Global financial conditions in advanced economies (AEs) appear to be robust in the face of EM contagion. Financial conditions eased through July, and available data show no significant deterioration i...

  • Sep 06 2018

    Sweden: Mixed messages from the Riksbank

    As expected, the Riksbank kept its policy rate unchanged today at a record low of -0.5%. The big news was that it has slightly delayed the first planned rate hike, which it said will now either be in ...

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  • RT @NKCAfrica: #SouthAfrica Headline CPI surprised to the downside with lower food prices and no sign of secondary price effects the main f…

  • RT @NKCAfrica: #Kenya review period expires without agreement on new IMF programme. Parliament’s decision to retain caps on interest rates…

  • The @guardian highlights our analysis of the fortunes of #G20 economies after #Lehman. While some Asia economies were unscathed, it took the US 3 yrs for GDP to return to pre-Lehman levels, the UK 5 years - and Italy has yet to return to the prior peak: bit.ly/2OAnyJP

  • In this @WEF blog post, Naveen Menon, Cisco's ASEAN president, discusses OE's report with Cisco on how #technology will displace 28m #ASEAN workers' jobs by 2028, but will create new demand for workers, too, with #reskilling the key challenge: bit.ly/2xx7Mbq

  • Extreme house price valuations are concentrated in a group of relatively small economies, though valuations also look high - albeit below 2007 levels - in the UK and France: bit.ly/2NTieUP

  • In this @WEF blog post, Naveen Menon, Cisco's ASEAN president, discusses OE's report with Cisco on how #technology will displace 28m #ASEAN workers' jobs by 2028, but will create new demand for workers, too, with #reskilling the key challenge: bit.ly/2QJktJ9

  • In full US-China #tradewar, OE modelling shows US and Chinese exports fall ~30% but three-quarters of China's $100bn export drop offset by rising exports to rest of world while RoW #exports to US rise $50bn with gains for Asian exporters: bit.ly/2QItK3S