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March 2019 / April 2019

  • Sharply lower global trade growth and signs weakness is spreading mean we see 2019 global GDP growth of 2.5%, versus 2018's 3%.
  • A recent services pick-up gives some comfort. But key economies' retail sales have been weak and we have cut consumer spending forecasts.
  • We see H2 growth accelerating, however, due to policy changes and as temporary negatives unwind. Looser Chinese policy and dovish central banks will buoy activity so global growth should rise to 2.7% in 2020, but with downside risks.
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  • We have cut our 2019 global GDP forecast as we expect the ongoing soft patch will linger for longer. But we still expect stronger growth in H2 2019 and into 2020 as monetary & fiscal policy offer support and some temporary negative forces abate:

  • Analysis by @nafezouk is highlighted by @FTAlphaville. The compression of EMBI spreads has stalled in March, largely driven by frontier markets: via @FinancialTimes

  • Our advanced economy leading indicator fell again in February, continuing the recent downward trend. But the moderate level points to a gentle - rather than sharp - slowdown in the advanced economies, which is consistent with our current forecast:

  • Our new report released to celebrate National Fragrance week (18-24 March) finds the fragrance industry made a £7.1 billion contribution to UK GDP in 2018. It supported 126,700 jobs and was responsible for raising £2.1 billion in tax receipts

  • Our 250 economists have updated our monthly forecasts - download a FREE EXEC SUMMARY: Sharply lower global trade growth and signs that weakness is spreading mean we see 2019 global GDP growth of 2.5%, versus 2018's 3%. But we still see stronger H2 growth.

  • RT @GregDaco: Spoke to @sechaney about slowdown in #IndustrialProduction:

    "Weak #manufacturing data reflect headwinds including slower glo…

  • RT @BostjancicKathy: While the Fed pauses policy tightening, focus for next week's #FOMC meeting will be on downward revisions to economic…