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LATEST GLOBAL OUTLOOK
November/ December 2018

  • Global growth will ease from 3.1% this year to 2.8% in 2019 and 2.7% in 2020. Recent equities sell-offs highlight financial market risks but we do not expect wider market declines.
  • We project 2019 US growth of 2.5%, buoyed by supportive fiscal policy, while the eurozone should see some year-end revival, paving the way for 1.7% 2019 growth, from 2% this year.
  • Broadly stable oil prices, easing inflation and resilient jobs markets support the outlook for next year.
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  • RT @GregDaco: In @OxfordEconomics' latest US Economics #Podcast we discuss economic momentum heading into 2019, resilience in the labor mar…

  • RT @GregDaco: Despite a significant #stockmarket correction, consumer spending continues to grow around 2.5-3%. While broader correction…

  • RT @GregDaco: Despite a significant #stockmarket correction, consumer spending continues to grow around 2.5-3%. While broader correction…

  • RT @GregDaco: In @OxfordEconomics' latest US Economics #Podcast we discuss economic momentum heading into 2019, resilience in the labor mar…

  • Early evidence on who's winning #tradewar. For #China, surveys suggest it's likely trade will suffer considerably. US imports of items like solar panels, have slumped. US shock looks smaller. Bigger near-term losers may be China’s key Asian trade partners: bit.ly/2S1jXG6

  • We still think #inflation in the #USeconomy will accelerate only moderately in 2019. Yet we note some upside risks from companies exercising greater pricing power amid higher labor and capital costs: bit.ly/2S0PXKl

  • Divergence in #creditconditions we noted earlier this yr now more marked. G7 conditions easing - and fastest in the US pointing to more US growth outperformance ahead. But Q3 EM conditions tightened agn to worst since Q1 2017 - a rising risk to EM growth: bit.ly/2A0QGUF