The leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis

LATEST GLOBAL OUTLOOK
February 2019 / March 2019

  • A manufacturing- and trade-driven soft patch persists, with China a key factor. But global recession risks are low - we forecast 2019 global growth of 2.7%.
  • China's imports should revive in Q2, with world trade stronger than in 2012-16, while markets have rebounded. We see US rates on hold until Q3 with just one 2019 hike. Lower bond yields and weaker inflation will limit policy tightening elsewhere.
  • Global growth will pick up in H2 as China stabilises while Europe and EMs strengthen.
Download free summary
Forecasts and models

Oxford Economics is a leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis, with the world’s only fully integrated economic model and 200 full-time economists, we help our clients track, analyse, and model country, industry, and urban trends.

Learn more

Consulting

Our economists and thought leadership specialists are expert at applying advanced economic tools to provide valuable insights into today’s most pressing business, financial, and policy issues.

Learn more

Latest Analysis

  • Feb 12 2019

    United States: Fed “put” could provide a significant growth buffer

    Amid numerous domestic and global crosscurrents, the US economy is expected to cool appreciably – from 3.0% growth at the end of 2018 to less than 2.0% in 2020. However, Fed patience could provide a s...

  • Feb 12 2019

    Soft landings: Difficult but by no means impossible

    Policymakers have rarely engineered soft landings, but central banks may be better placed to do so this time around. Crucially though, this relies on central banks being willing and able to use unconv...

  • Feb 12 2019

    With Moody’s upgrade, Russia is still under-rated

    Moody’s upgrade of Russia’s sovereign credit rating to investment grade (Baa3, from Ba1) was long overdue, coming nearly a year after Russia regained investment grade status from both Fitch and S&...

  • Feb 11 2019

    Australia: No bite from Hayne but credit conditions remain tight

    As we anticipated, from an economic perspective the final report from the Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, Superannuation and Financial Services Industry (Hayne report) was all ‘bark’...

  • Feb 11 2019

    Soft landings: Lessons from history

    The evidence from the post-war period is that soft economic landings are relatively rare. What’s more, peaks in the US, UK and German/eurozone policy rates have on average been followed by a recession...

  • US outlook - 2019 top calls

    US outlook - 2019 top calls

    We set out our view of US economic prospects for 2019 and some of the key issues for businesses as they seek to navigate current uncertainties and meet the year's challenges

  • World's Most Competitive Cities

    World's Most Competitive Cities

    Oxford Economics' custom research was recently featured in the fourth edition of the World's Most Competitive Cities (published by Conway). The report examines the economic fundamentals supporting dir... more

  • Digital Innovation in Financial Services

    Digital Innovation in Financial Services

    Oxford Economics surveyed 90 technology executives in the financial services sector, including meaningful samples from the retail banking, insurance, and capital markets subsectors. The study found 68... more

  • The impact of the aluminium sector on the UAE economy

    The impact of the aluminium sector on the UAE economy

    Production of aluminium and of semi-finished aluminium products supports just over 60,000 jobs in the UAE, once supply chain linkages and employee spending impacts are taken into account. This is asso... more

  • GCC Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2017

    GCC Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2017

    New analysis from Oxford Economics show that incidence of illicit tobacco across four GCC markets (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Oman) has increased in recent years - having been just 1.2% of Total Co... more

EXPANDED US STATE, METRO AND COUNTY FORECASTS

We now offer comprehensive forecasts and analysis for more than 3,500 sub-national economies in the US, spanning all 50 states, 382 metro areas and 3,142 counties.

Learn more

new service: Sovereign risk tool

A rigorous and transparent framework to measure the vulnerability of 166 countries to a sovereign crisis or a sovereign distress.

Learn more

African Forecasting Service

Comprehensive analysis of national and urban economics in Africa.

Learn more

EVENTS

We run an extensive, worldwide programme of illuminating forums and roundtables with presentations from our economic experts.

What's on?

See all tweets

Latest tweets

  • Leading indicators suggest emerging markets (EM) start 2018 with strong momentum, supported by still-robust world t… https://t.co/9y3Riw5oFl

  • Forward Thinking https://t.co/LtGbS0CCgF by @OxfordEconomics https://t.co/kPwKTR5zeP

  • Big shifts in the #DigitalWorkplace may transform our cities. When looking to relocate, 43% of respondents among 50… https://t.co/P9JXIAITLp

  • RT @EY_ITEMClub: .@EY_ITEMClub expects 2018 to be a very challenging year for the housing market with activity likely to be weak and house…

  • RT @EY_ITEMClub: . @EY_ITEMClub believes 3.1% in Nov was peak for inflation and 3.0% in Dec marks the start of a downward trend - we expect…