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Global macro themes and asset views chartbook, June 2018
In our global macro chartbook for June, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets, and link to our research highlights over the last month.This month, the risks from rising glo...
Argentina: Finance minister to lead BCRA, but don’t panic!
The appointment of now ex-finance minister, Luis Caputo, as the new governor of Argentina’s central bank (BCRA) after the shock resignation of Federico Sturzenegger sounds bad for BCRA independence. B...
China’s slowdown and US tariffs come at bad time
The surprising resilience of China’s growth this year has been a very helpful buffer for the global economy amid various emerging headwinds. But yesterday’s economic data suggest that the slowdown in ...
Italy: Populists’ spending plans to test limited fiscal space
Guessing what sort of economic agenda will ultimately emerge from Italy’s new populist government can be tricky, given the opposing aims of the two coalition parties and those of the finance minister....
Eurozone: ECB delivers dovish QE exit in light of mounting risks
The ECB has delivered its long-awaited QE exit. Asset purchases will continue at a reduced pace of €15bn in Q4 and end in December. That hawkish decision was accompanied by “dovish sweeteners”. The en...
Maximizing Mobile Value: Is BYOD holding you back?
Mobile work is a strategic priority for many companies, but the fundamental decisions that enable it are too often based on short-term thinking and ad hoc policies.
To better understand the value o... more
Chatbots are here to stay
Companies must become intelligent enterprises to thrive and grow in the coming years. Conversational bots powered by AI will play an important role in that transition.
The economic impact of lending through Funding Circle
One lasting effect of the global financial crisis has been the emergence and expansion of non-bank sources of finance for small businesses. With banks restricting their lending to SMEs during the ensu... more
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In the media
RT @GregDaco: As @OxfordEconomics had anticipated, Trump upped the ante by threatening to impose 10% #tariffs on $200bn of imports from Chi…
RT @GregDaco: Impact on US economy could be worse since #tariffs on $250bn would directly impact consumer goods, affect US multinationals i…
RT @GregDaco: An examination of bilateral #tariffs (via @WTO) between the US and its trading partners does not reflect severely unequal tre…
EC gave the go-ahead for #EU #tariffs on €2.8bn of US imports in retaliation for US tariffs on metal imports from the EU. ~1% of all EU goods imports from the US will be hit - but that makes up only 0.02% of EU GDP so the economic impact is close to nil: bit.ly/2yyCiFs
RT @BenMayEconomist: Italian government bonds (2017) v sub prime (2008) https://t.co/BIPaPjlVRI
RT @OliverRakau: Today EU Comm. gave expected green light to retaliatory tariffs on US imports. But they are unlikely to discourage the US…
RT @GregDaco: Perhaps the most obvious point to make is that in a low tariff world there is more to lose from rising trade tensions than to…