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- Sep 12 2018
United States: Yield curve – don’t discard the term premium
The debate over the implications of a yield curve inversion has intensified amid this economic cycle characterized by a low neutral fed funds rate, low inflation, and compressed bond term premium As w...
- Sep 12 2018
Assessing the risks from high house prices
The elevated level of global house prices is showing signs of weighing on prices, with potentially negative implications for growth. Our set of cross-country risk indicators points to housing market d...
- Sep 11 2018
United States: US Executive Briefing - September 2018
The economy appears to be firing on all cylinders this summer with real GDP growth approaching 3% y/y and the labor market continuing to deliver strong job growth. Strong consumer outlays, solid busi...
- Sep 11 2018
Rising global imbalances to lift banks’ loans, hit bond demand
Widening global imbalances will increase liquidity for global banks and tighten it in global bond markets.
- Sep 11 2018
United Kingdom: Carney conundrum reaches a resolution
The Chancellor’s decision to extend Mark Carney’s tenure as Governor of the Bank of England beyond what had been the planned departure date of next June was unsurprising given recent speculation. But ...
The Fiscal Impact of Immigration on the UK
European migrants living in the UK contribute £2,300 more to public purse each year than the average adult, suggesting a net contribution of £78,000 to the exchequer over their lifespan in the UK.
Data and Digital Platforms | Driving Tourism Growth in Asia Pacific
Destinations and policymakers should embrace digital platforms and data-driven innovation, to drive tourism performance.
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In the media
RT @NKCAfrica: #SouthAfrica Headline CPI surprised to the downside with lower food prices and no sign of secondary price effects the main f…
RT @NKCAfrica: #Kenya review period expires without agreement on new IMF programme. Parliament’s decision to retain caps on interest rates…
The @guardian highlights our analysis of the fortunes of #G20 economies after #Lehman. While some Asia economies were unscathed, it took the US 3 yrs for GDP to return to pre-Lehman levels, the UK 5 years - and Italy has yet to return to the prior peak: bit.ly/2OAnyJP
In this @WEF blog post, Naveen Menon, Cisco's ASEAN president, discusses OE's report with Cisco on how #technology will displace 28m #ASEAN workers' jobs by 2028, but will create new demand for workers, too, with #reskilling the key challenge: bit.ly/2xx7Mbq
Extreme house price valuations are concentrated in a group of relatively small economies, though valuations also look high - albeit below 2007 levels - in the UK and France: bit.ly/2NTieUP
In this @WEF blog post, Naveen Menon, Cisco's ASEAN president, discusses OE's report with Cisco on how #technology will displace 28m #ASEAN workers' jobs by 2028, but will create new demand for workers, too, with #reskilling the key challenge: bit.ly/2QJktJ9
In full US-China #tradewar, OE modelling shows US and Chinese exports fall ~30% but three-quarters of China's $100bn export drop offset by rising exports to rest of world while RoW #exports to US rise $50bn with gains for Asian exporters: bit.ly/2QItK3S