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LATEST GLOBAL OUTLOOK
June - July 2019

  • Intensified trade tensions and sombre data, with downbeat gauges of activity and trade volumes, leave us more pessimistic over prospects. We expect global growth to weaken from 2018’s 3.2% to 2.7% both this year and next.
  • Hopes for détente over trade may be scuppered by recent moves that have raised downside risks and are likely to hit investment.
  • We see oil prices weakening and more dovish central banks, with the Fed cutting US interest rates by a quarter-point by Q4. But the benefits may be offset by further dollar strength.
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  • Organisational culture is critical to business performance influencing outcomes in collaboration, customer satisfaction and retention - and financial results. Our model developed with @GrantThornton tracks how key aspects of culture map into performance: bit.ly/2XMYNyF

  • In our view, chances #China will use US Treasury bond holdings as a #tradewar weapon against the US are remote. We find vast sales are needed for significant impact, it wld devalue one-third of China's foreign reserves, and spell other high-risk fallout: bit.ly/2WHaHsH

  • #China is v unlikely to act on its threat to cut #rareearth exports to the US in retaliation in the #tradewar. China is the largest producer of rare earths but has no monopoly. Any action wld likely lead to trade diversion and stimulate alternative supply: bit.ly/2wYvrBC

  • After next week's #Fed meeting, we expect the #FOMC to leave US rates unchanged but very dovish forward guidance to come from members and Fed Chairman Powell aimed at placating fractious markets. We see a quarter-point cut in the Fed Funds rate in Dec'r: bit.ly/2wToW37

  • #Japanification risk is back on the agenda given a slowing world economy. Japan’s struggle to drag its economy out of an entrenched cycle of #deflation is cautionary tale for other economies like the #eurozone, showing the enormity of policy effort needed: bit.ly/2WJT0sy

  • We identify conspicuous areas of growing #EM vulnerability, inc rising sovereign and corporate debt, and opaque lending practices by #China. But while global volatility and yields stay low, risks shd be confined to a few sovereigns whose domestic policies have gone off-track.

  • Our survey of key characteristics of policies under #populism drawn from 17 countries focuses on economic policies and institutions. Among the current crop of #populist administrations, #Hungary tops the table followed by #Turkey, #Italy and the US: bit.ly/2IjdFQi