The leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis

June - July 2019

  • Intensified trade tensions and sombre data, with downbeat gauges of activity and trade volumes, leave us more pessimistic over prospects. We expect global growth to weaken from 2018’s 3.2% to 2.7% both this year and next.
  • Hopes for détente over trade may be scuppered by recent moves that have raised downside risks and are likely to hit investment.
  • We see oil prices weakening and more dovish central banks, with the Fed cutting US interest rates by a quarter-point by Q4. But the benefits may be offset by further dollar strength.
Download free summary

Oxford Economics is a leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis, with the world’s only fully integrated economic model and 250 full-time economists, we help our clients track, analyse, and model country, industry, and urban trends.

Learn more

Our economists and thought leadership specialists are expert at applying advanced economic tools to provide valuable insights into today’s most pressing business, financial, and policy issues.

Learn more

Latest Analysis

We now offer comprehensive forecasts and analysis for more than 3,500 sub-national economies in the US, spanning all 50 states, 382 metro areas and 3,142 counties.

Learn more

Following the recent release of our Sovereign Risk Tool, we have introduced a complementary tool measuring currency risk.

Learn more about the FX Risk Tool and Sovereign Risk Tool

Comprehensive analysis of national and urban economics in Africa.

Learn more

We run an extensive, worldwide programme of illuminating forums and roundtables with presentations from our economic experts.

What's on?

See all tweets

Latest tweets

  • Organisational culture is critical to business performance influencing outcomes in collaboration, customer satisfaction and retention - and financial results. Our model developed with @GrantThornton tracks how key aspects of culture map into performance:

  • In our view, chances #China will use US Treasury bond holdings as a #tradewar weapon against the US are remote. We find vast sales are needed for significant impact, it wld devalue one-third of China's foreign reserves, and spell other high-risk fallout:

  • #China is v unlikely to act on its threat to cut #rareearth exports to the US in retaliation in the #tradewar. China is the largest producer of rare earths but has no monopoly. Any action wld likely lead to trade diversion and stimulate alternative supply:

  • After next week's #Fed meeting, we expect the #FOMC to leave US rates unchanged but very dovish forward guidance to come from members and Fed Chairman Powell aimed at placating fractious markets. We see a quarter-point cut in the Fed Funds rate in Dec'r:

  • #Japanification risk is back on the agenda given a slowing world economy. Japan’s struggle to drag its economy out of an entrenched cycle of #deflation is cautionary tale for other economies like the #eurozone, showing the enormity of policy effort needed:

  • We identify conspicuous areas of growing #EM vulnerability, inc rising sovereign and corporate debt, and opaque lending practices by #China. But while global volatility and yields stay low, risks shd be confined to a few sovereigns whose domestic policies have gone off-track.

  • Our survey of key characteristics of policies under #populism drawn from 17 countries focuses on economic policies and institutions. Among the current crop of #populist administrations, #Hungary tops the table followed by #Turkey, #Italy and the US: