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LATEST GLOBAL OUTLOOK
February 2019 / March 2019

  • A manufacturing- and trade-driven soft patch persists, with China a key factor. But global recession risks are low - we forecast 2019 global growth of 2.7%.
  • China's imports should revive in Q2, with world trade stronger than in 2012-16, while markets have rebounded. We see US rates on hold until Q3 with just one 2019 hike. Lower bond yields and weaker inflation will limit policy tightening elsewhere.
  • Global growth will pick up in H2 as China stabilises while Europe and EMs strengthen.
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Latest Analysis

  • Feb 14 2019

    United States: Credit growth: not alarming but a drag on spending

    While household debt climbed to a new record in 2018, topping $13.5 trillion, debt as a share of income has been declining steadily since the financial crisis. Based on our analysis of recent trends i...

  • Feb 14 2019

    Italy: Yields alone won’t derail Italian debt dynamics

    Concerns about an imminent Italian debt crisis are overblown in our view. Our new in-house debt-sustainability tool shows that an insulated rise in Italian bond yields of a similar magnitude to that o...

  • Feb 14 2019

    Spain looks headed to the polls again

    Spain will likely hold a snap general election, after the government failed to gather enough support to pass its 2019 budget in congress. This would be the third general election for Spain in the past...

  • Feb 13 2019

    United States: Recession odds reach post-recession high

    Unsurprisingly, given global economic and financial stress in early January, recession odds rose to a new post-GFC high. However, the odds of a downturn still remain comfortably below critical thresho...

  • Feb 13 2019

    Sweden: Riksbank in a holding pattern

    The Riksbank kept the repo rate unchanged at -0.25% in their February meeting, in line with expectations. Their repo rate forecast also remains unchanged from December, which indicates a rate hike of...

  • US outlook - 2019 top calls

    US outlook - 2019 top calls

    We set out our view of US economic prospects for 2019 and some of the key issues for businesses as they seek to navigate current uncertainties and meet the year's challenges

  • World's Most Competitive Cities

    World's Most Competitive Cities

    Oxford Economics' custom research was recently featured in the fourth edition of the World's Most Competitive Cities (published by Conway). The report examines the economic fundamentals supporting dir... more

  • Digital Innovation in Financial Services

    Digital Innovation in Financial Services

    Oxford Economics surveyed 90 technology executives in the financial services sector, including meaningful samples from the retail banking, insurance, and capital markets subsectors. The study found 68... more

  • The impact of the aluminium sector on the UAE economy

    The impact of the aluminium sector on the UAE economy

    Production of aluminium and of semi-finished aluminium products supports just over 60,000 jobs in the UAE, once supply chain linkages and employee spending impacts are taken into account. This is asso... more

  • GCC Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2017

    GCC Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2017

    New analysis from Oxford Economics show that incidence of illicit tobacco across four GCC markets (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Oman) has increased in recent years - having been just 1.2% of Total Co... more

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