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February 2019 / March 2019

  • A manufacturing- and trade-driven soft patch persists, with China a key factor. But global recession risks are low - we forecast 2019 global growth of 2.7%.
  • China's imports should revive in Q2, with world trade stronger than in 2012-16, while markets have rebounded. We see US rates on hold until Q3 with just one 2019 hike. Lower bond yields and weaker inflation will limit policy tightening elsewhere.
  • Global growth will pick up in H2 as China stabilises while Europe and EMs strengthen.
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