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- Nov 28 2018
United States: Labor supply keeps on giving and giving
The labor force participation rate has stabilized in a remarkably narrow range over the past four years. Many now question how sustainable this is, given that the unemployment rate is at a 49-year low...
- Nov 28 2018
United Kingdom: Government’s Brexit study adds little to the debate
The Government’s analysis of the economic impact of Brexit was a curious affair, failing to model the scenario which looks most likely if the withdrawal agreement is implemented. We agree with the not...
- Nov 27 2018
Oil worries unlikely to affect consumer spending in the GCC
We expect consumer spending in the three major Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait to face fewer headwinds in 2019 than this year. Job creation and wage growth...
- Nov 27 2018
Assessing the macro impact of October’s market reversals
The bull market of recent years may cushion the macro impact of October’s market reversals. But the impact could be relatively strong if the market moves represent a sustained downgrade to fundamenta...
- Nov 27 2018
Japan: Rising inbound tourism to help revitalise weak services
Low productivity and weak pricing power in Japan’s services sector have been major factors in the economy’s stagnant growth and persistently low inflation. But the boom in the country’s inbound touris...
The impact of a 'no-deal' Brexit on travel and tourism
A “no-deal” Brexit would cause a 5% drop in UK outbound travel and tourism trips in 2020, because of the stifled economic backdrop and impact of a weaker pound. Ireland and Spain would be the hardest... more
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In the media
Structural change in corporate savings is a threat to global growth. Firms’ net savings are up 2-3ppts of GDP since early 90s. Many factors - but incentives to execs to prioritise stock buybacks over investment risk a long-term, low-growth feedback loop: bit.ly/2S5Zbpb
Against consensus - but as we forecast - in #Russia, the central bank #CBR ordered another rate rise on Friday, to 7.75%. With a weaker ruble and impending Jan'y VAT hike set to take inflation to 6% in H1 '19 vs a 4% CBR target, the move isn't surprising: bit.ly/2S3WCE4
In 2019, the key theme for #USeconomy will be the search for a "soft-landing". Headwinds from higher input and borrowing costs, #protectionism and slowing global expansion will bring US growth down to 2% by end-2019. Our top calls for the new year: bit.ly/2EAjgkv
Our 250 economists have updated our monthly forecasts - download a FREE exec summary here: bit.ly/2S6ilLL. The world economy will end 2018 on a soft note, but we expect the global expansion to regain momentum in 2019, with 2.8% global growth, after 3.0% for 2018.
RT @GregDaco: About 50% economists surveyed by @WSJ expect the #Fed to pause rate increases in the first half of 2019. Most see 2 rate hike…
RT @GregDaco: US #retail sales top estimates w/ 0.2% rise in Nov despite -2.3% #gasoline stations sales Core sales +0.9% after +0.7%in Oct!…
RT @GregDaco: Looking at momentum, #retail sales up 4.2% y/y while core sales +4.4%. These data point to solid consumer spending in Q4 arou…