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April 2019 / May 2019

  • Early-2019 prospects are downbeat and there is good reason for near-term caution. But latest data offer hope that global growth is steadying.
  • Trade and manufacturing gauges look to be beginning to stabilise, while global services activity has picked up. China credit data is strengthening and global trade tensions seem to be easing.
  • With the US Fed set to hold rates for the rest of this cycle, looser financial conditions and other policy support should buoy growth and see a modest acceleration in H2 2019.
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Latest Analysis

  • Apr 25 2019

    Turkey: CBRT on hold, dilutes hawkish message

    The CBRT kept the key rate unchanged at 24% for the fifth straight meeting in April, in line with the prevailing consensus. The removal from the statement of the pledge to deliver further tightening i...

  • Apr 25 2019

    Populist risks across global economies swing both ways

    Our global survey highlights expansionary fiscal policies and tighter influence over central banks as two common features of populist governments globally. We see benefits of such pro-growth fiscal po...

  • Apr 25 2019

    Germany: Berlin has less fiscal space than you think

    Weakening growth, a gloomy external backdrop and sizeable fiscal surpluses have prompted calls for Germany to loosen its fiscal policy. We doubt that material changes are imminent, though, and continu...

  • Apr 25 2019

    Sweden: Riksbank takes a dovish turn

    In light of continued uncertainties surrounding the growth outlook, central banks have become increasingly dovish in recent months. Today the Riksbank followed suit. The next repo rate hike was pushed...

  • Apr 25 2019

    Japan: BoJ prepares for longer battle with low inflation

    The Bank of Japan (BoJ) clarified its forward guidance stance today announcing that it will maintain current short- and long-term interest rates “at least until spring”. It also adopted measures to im...


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  • If #BrentCrude hits $100 a barrel by end-2019, the level of global GDP falls 0.6% relative to our baseline forecasts by Q4 2020 - with large oil-importing #emergingmarkets such as the #Philippines, #China, #India and #Argentina hardest hit.

  • We see increased risks of markedly higher #oilprices. Although #Saudi Arabia will likely boost production to partly offset the US ending waivers on imports from #Iran, spare capacity is being drained:

  • Weakening growth, a gloomy external backdrop and sizeable fiscal surpluses have prompted calls for #Germany to ease fiscal policy. We doubt changes will come as Berlin’s fiscal room for manoeuvre is limited - surpluses are mainly at state and local level:

  • ... That said, populist policies also endanger global and domestic policy institutions. And while some of these arguably may be overdue for reform, our preferred changes may not be the ones targeted by #populists.

  • Our survey highlights expansionary #fiscal policies and tighter influence on #centralbanks as key common features of #populist governments globally. We see benefits of such pro-growth fiscal policies, which cld succeed in warding off the threat of deflation in some economies...

  • Our survey of key characteristics of policies under #populism drawn from 17 countries focuses on economic policies and institutions. Among the current crop of #populist administrations, #Hungary tops the table followed by #Turkey, #Italy and the US:

  • #LondonEconomy faces a 2nd yr of weak growth. We see London GVA growth of 1.8% in 2019, vs 1.7% in 2018. The UK capital’s consumer spending growth is set to slow by 1.1 points, to 2.5%, and #houseprices to fall for a second year, by 1%: