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LATEST GLOBAL OUTLOOK
February 2019 / March 2019

  • A manufacturing- and trade-driven soft patch persists, with China a key factor. But global recession risks are low - we forecast 2019 global growth of 2.7%.
  • China's imports should revive in Q2, with world trade stronger than in 2012-16, while markets have rebounded. We see US rates on hold until Q3 with just one 2019 hike. Lower bond yields and weaker inflation will limit policy tightening elsewhere.
  • Global growth will pick up in H2 as China stabilises while Europe and EMs strengthen.
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Latest Analysis

  • Feb 15 2019

    United States: Macro Musings

    The financial markets received a mixed bag of news this week, but were cheered by favorable developments on the trade and political fronts. Stock prices surged as legislators passed spending bills tha...

  • Feb 15 2019

    United States: Some policy risks to abate for now

    Some policy risks to the economy are receding for now. President Trump is expected to sign the spending bill that will prevent another government shutdown, and US-China trade negotiators are making en...

  • Feb 15 2019

    United States: Fed Balance sheet – shift toward an active policy tool

    While the FOMC is still formally reviewing its operational framework for conducting monetary policy, recent Fed communication raises the strong possibility that balance sheet reduction ceases by the e...

  • Feb 15 2019

    Sustained growth in EMs calls for thrift and innovation

    Emerging Markets (EMs) with sustained fast growth are distinguished by rapid capital accumulation – mainly domestically financed – and robust total factor productivity (TFP) growth. We find that susta...

  • Feb 15 2019

    Sustained growth in EMs calls for thrift and innovation

    Emerging Markets (EMs) with sustained fast growth are distinguished by rapid capital accumulation – mainly domestically financed – and robust total factor productivity (TFP) growth. We find that susta...

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