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LATEST GLOBAL OUTLOOK
January 2019 / February 2019

  • Recent market upsets suggest heightened concern over a substantial global slowdown or even a recession.
  • We see this as an over-reaction to weakening data. Downside risks have risen, but our 2019 forecast is little changed at 2.7%, from 3% in 2018.
  • While tighter financial conditions will pinch growth, jobs market strength and weaker inflation, driven by cheaper oil, point to solid household spending. But sustained market weakness would risk global growth below post-crisis lows.
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Latest Analysis

  • Jan 23 2019

    Japan: BoJ on hold while revising down inflation forecast again

    The Bank of Japan (BoJ) today announced that it will leave monetary policy unchanged while board members have again revised down their inflation forecasts. Amid rising concern about the pace of global...

  • Jan 23 2019

    Concerns about China’s consumers are largely overdone

    A rash of headline stories on Chinese consumers downgrading their consumption by cutting discretionary spending (cars in particular) and turning to cheaper substitutes has led to concerns about China’...

  • Jan 22 2019

    United States: Fed to achieve balance sheet normalization in mid-2020

    We forecast that the Fed’s balance sheet normalization will continue to proceed gradually until June 2020. The System Open Market Account (SOMA) balance should decline to $3.2trn, down from $4.26trn a...

  • Jan 21 2019

    Remember 2001? Global debt risks for 2019

    In the context of rising policy rates and slowing growth, we identify a number of areas of credit risk globally, considering factors such as concentrations of highly-indebted borrowers, declining over...

  • Jan 21 2019

    Eurozone: Taking a stand on risks

    The ECB council’s view on the balance of risk to the growth outlook will be the focus at its first meeting of the year. At the margin, we see the ECB finally giving in and acknowledging that risks to...

  • World's Most Competitive Cities

    World's Most Competitive Cities

    Oxford Economics' custom research was recently featured in the fourth edition of the World's Most Competitive Cities (published by Conway). The report examines the economic fundamentals supporting dir... more

  • Digital Innovation in Financial Services

    Digital Innovation in Financial Services

    Oxford Economics surveyed 90 technology executives in the financial services sector, including meaningful samples from the retail banking, insurance, and capital markets subsectors. The study found 68... more

  • The impact of the aluminium sector on the UAE economy

    The impact of the aluminium sector on the UAE economy

    Production of aluminium and of semi-finished aluminium products supports just over 60,000 jobs in the UAE, once supply chain linkages and employee spending impacts are taken into account. This is asso... more

  • GCC Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2017

    GCC Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2017

    New analysis from Oxford Economics show that incidence of illicit tobacco across four GCC markets (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Oman) has increased in recent years - having been just 1.2% of Total Co... more

  • Accenture Innovation Maturity Index 2018

    Accenture Innovation Maturity Index 2018

    Oxford Economics surveyed 150 C-suite executives from 11 industries across the UAE and Saudi Arabia in mid-2018. The objective was to learn how large companies are prepared to respond to disruptive ch... more

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  • #BankofJapan #BoJ left policy unchanged while board members again revised down inflation forecasts. Amid rising concern about global economic momentum and with a consumption tax hike in Oct'r, BoJ has no choice but to hold policy at least 'til Q2 2020: bit.ly/2sFwq7T

  • RT @GregDaco: Tomorrow will be Day 33 of #GovernmentShutdown — longest ever! NABE @business_econ is hosting a great webinar to highlight e…

  • In #Canada, key factors that drove gains in house prices and household debt are unwinding. Interest rates are rising, tighter policy is constraining mortgage credit, and growth is slowing. Overstretched households remain a genuine risk: bit.ly/2FFIbDN

  • RT @Accenture: With so much available data on the workforce, it’s important to remember who’s at the center of it—people. We’re sharing mor…

  • RT @jortpossel: .@Accenture is at #WEF19. Join us as we talk #ResponsibleAI, #FutureWorkforce and #InternetOfTrust. New blog post: https://…

  • In #China, weaker external and internal demand saw growth slow in Q4 to 6.4% y/y, from Q3's 6.5% and weakest since 1990. 2018 growth was 6.6%, after revised 6.8% in 2017. But pro-growth policy is gaining momentum. We see activity finding a floor arnd Q2: bit.ly/2MknxcV

  • Our 250 economists have updated our monthly forecasts - download a FREE EXEC SUMMARY: bit.ly/2DnL89G. Market upsets suggest anxieties over a global slowdown but we see this as over-reaction to soft data. Our 2019 f/cast is little changed at 2.7%, from 3% in 2018.