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- Mar 18 2019
United States: IRS refunds on track to disappoint
Income tax refunds are running roughly 5% behind the 2018 pace, well below analysts’ expectations for increases ranging from $20 billion to $75 billion. We think the shortfall may narrow over the rema...
- Mar 18 2019
United Kingdom: Monetary policy to remain in stasis
The economy’s recent performance has been broadly in line with the MPC’s expectations. But public pronouncements by some Committee members on downside risks have indicated a dovish shift around the pa...
- Mar 15 2019
United States: Macro Musings: Looking for green shoots
Incoming data continue to paint a confusing picture of the economy during the first quarter. Households are reopening their wallets and purses, but factories are shutting down output. Home sales are w...
- Mar 15 2019
United States: FOMC meeting preview – Scaling back expectations
The Fed has paused monetary policy tightening as it “patiently” assesses the economic landscape amid increasing global crosscurrents. Thus, policymakers will keep the fed funds target range steady at...
- Mar 15 2019
Global: Growth indicator softened further, but not alarmingly so
Our advanced-economy (AE) growth indicator fell in February, continuing the recent downward trend. Despite the broad-based weakness, the moderate level still points to a gentle rather than sharp slowd...
The Global Chemical Industry: Catalyzing Growth and Addressing Our World's Sustainability Challenges
Our global analysis finds that the chemical industry, its supply chain and payroll-induced impacts, made an estimated $5.7 trillion contribution to world GDP in 2017, and supported 120 million jobs.
SME Pulse 2019: Strategies to boost the bottom line
Approaching 2019, SMEs are confident they can continue to prosper, despite economic uncertainty, disruptive technologies, and threats to global trade. This year highlights a notable shift in attitudes... more
The economic contribution of the UK downstream oil sector
The UK downstream oil sector supported 300,000 jobs and a £21.2 billion contribution to UK GDP in 2016. In this report we explore the vital role that the downstream oil sector plays within the UK econ... more
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In the media
We have cut our 2019 global GDP forecast as we expect the ongoing soft patch will linger for longer. But we still expect stronger growth in H2 2019 and into 2020 as monetary & fiscal policy offer support and some temporary negative forces abate: bit.ly/2HKQ5ft
Analysis by @nafezouk is highlighted by @FTAlphaville. The compression of EMBI spreads has stalled in March, largely driven by frontier markets: on.ft.com/2HGhe2L via @FinancialTimes
Our advanced economy leading indicator fell again in February, continuing the recent downward trend. But the moderate level points to a gentle - rather than sharp - slowdown in the advanced economies, which is consistent with our current forecast: bit.ly/2HFoxb2
Our new report released to celebrate National Fragrance week (18-24 March) finds the fragrance industry made a £7.1 billion contribution to UK GDP in 2018. It supported 126,700 jobs and was responsible for raising £2.1 billion in tax receipts bit.ly/2HDrXuX
Our 250 economists have updated our monthly forecasts - download a FREE EXEC SUMMARY: bit.ly/2Tyhc4c. Sharply lower global trade growth and signs that weakness is spreading mean we see 2019 global GDP growth of 2.5%, versus 2018's 3%. But we still see stronger H2 growth.
RT @GregDaco: Spoke to @sechaney about slowdown in #IndustrialProduction:
"Weak #manufacturing data reflect headwinds including slower glo…
RT @BostjancicKathy: While the Fed pauses policy tightening, focus for next week's #FOMC meeting will be on downward revisions to economic…