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- Sep 18 2018
India: Long-term INR outlook: real gain, nominal pain
Debates on the rupee’s (INR) fair value have taken centre stage in recent months, with the currency hitting new lows against the US dollar. While this matters little for the short-term outlook, it has...
- Sep 18 2018
Ramping up the US-China trade war
The latest announcement of further US tariffs on imports from China, and China’s vow to retaliate, mark a major escalation of their conflict that will hit global economic growth beyond what we current...
- Sep 18 2018
United States: Trump declares trade war on China!
President Trump announced on Monday that the US would impose further tariffs on $200 billion of imports from China. The new duties come on top of the 25% tariffs on $50 billion of imports implemented ...
- Sep 17 2018
United States: More evidence of upward pressure on wages
Leading indicators point to building wage pressures amid an increasingly tight labor market. With an increasing share of small companies planning to raise compensation and a record number of workers v...
- Sep 17 2018
United States: US Executive Podcast -- September 2018
Gregory Daco, Chief US Economist, and Kathy Bostjancic, Chief US Financial Economist, discuss the US economic outlook with a focus on economic resilience, momentum heading into 2019, Hurricane Flore...
The Fiscal Impact of Immigration on the UK
European migrants living in the UK contribute £2,300 more to public purse each year than the average adult, suggesting a net contribution of £78,000 to the exchequer over their lifespan in the UK.
Data and Digital Platforms | Driving Tourism Growth in Asia Pacific
Destinations and policymakers should embrace digital platforms and data-driven innovation, to drive tourism performance.
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In the media
RT @NKCAfrica: #SouthAfrica Headline CPI surprised to the downside with lower food prices and no sign of secondary price effects the main f…
RT @NKCAfrica: #Kenya review period expires without agreement on new IMF programme. Parliament’s decision to retain caps on interest rates…
The @guardian highlights our analysis of the fortunes of #G20 economies after #Lehman. While some Asia economies were unscathed, it took the US 3 yrs for GDP to return to pre-Lehman levels, the UK 5 years - and Italy has yet to return to the prior peak: bit.ly/2OAnyJP
In this @WEF blog post, Naveen Menon, Cisco's ASEAN president, discusses OE's report with Cisco on how #technology will displace 28m #ASEAN workers' jobs by 2028, but will create new demand for workers, too, with #reskilling the key challenge: bit.ly/2xx7Mbq
Extreme house price valuations are concentrated in a group of relatively small economies, though valuations also look high - albeit below 2007 levels - in the UK and France: bit.ly/2NTieUP
In this @WEF blog post, Naveen Menon, Cisco's ASEAN president, discusses OE's report with Cisco on how #technology will displace 28m #ASEAN workers' jobs by 2028, but will create new demand for workers, too, with #reskilling the key challenge: bit.ly/2QJktJ9
In full US-China #tradewar, OE modelling shows US and Chinese exports fall ~30% but three-quarters of China's $100bn export drop offset by rising exports to rest of world while RoW #exports to US rise $50bn with gains for Asian exporters: bit.ly/2QItK3S