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Comprehensive five year house
price forecasts for England and Wales
Forecasts of house and apartment prices in England and Wales
The UK’s number one property website Rightmove and leading economic forecaster Oxford Economics have partnered to create the most comprehensive and data driven five year house price forecast for England and Wales. The data set behind the forecast is the most complete of its kind, using unique Rightmove data and its granular indices of historical price growth, set alongside economic growth projections and analytics developed using the Oxford Economics models of global, UK and regional economic activity.
The combined expertise of Rightmove and Oxford Economics creates a robust and complementary dataset, and on this foundation Oxford Economics have built a model that provides a five year view of prices down to postcode level, split by property type. Data will be updated on a quarterly basis and will be made available by Rightmove and Oxford Economics to a wide range of clients, including investors, house builders, housing associations, mortgage lenders and government.
What the service includes
Medium-range forecasts. Five-year forecasts of prices of houses and flats to the 2-digit level, in 107 postcode areas in England and Wales.
Historical trends. Data go back to 2000, to allow analysis of historical trends.
Outputs based on key socio-economic drivers, such as short-term price dynamics, affordability, market correction, rental yield 'premia', and interest and exchange rates (for London postcodes).
Large data set. The database includes over 66 million data points, with records for more than 15 million properties
How the data can be applied
Statistically robust and accurate residential property forecasts can add value in many ways, such as:
Organisations that already have in-house forecasting expertise can utilise the Rightmove/Oxford Economics forecasts as an independent and robust validation measure, and also where the integration of alternative core economic assumptions would be beneficial.
There are three core ways to use the Portfolio Outlook Model:
Input: A portfolio of properties
Output: Current and forecast values for the next 20 quarters, along with confidence intervals
Bespoke Analyses / Reports
Used when the most detailed information possible is needed on a specific area/type of property/range of properties with a certain forecast outcome
Postcode area averages
Input: A list of target postcode areas
Output: Forecast percentage changes for each postcode area based upon the average property in each area
Who will benefit from granular house forecasts
Mortgage Lenders: Initial Lending Decision (especially interest-only); Portfolio monitoring (Capital adequacy – Basel II / III – Internal MI); Assisting decision making with arrears and forbearance.
Property Investors: Evaluation of RMBS pools; Shared equity investment decision; BTL portfolio; PRS evaluation, decision making and monitoring.
Property Developers: Development site and plot Assessment; Monitoring portfolio and land bank value and performance; Financial planning.
Regulators and Government: Bespoke Analyses (e.g. housing bubbles); SHMAs for Local Authorities; Council Tax planning.
For more information or to place an order, please fill in the form to the right, or contact George Armitage at Oxford Economics.