As the global economy prepares to move onto the next phase in the post-crisis recovery, with Fed policy tightening imminent, the risks to global growth remain significant. Key risks relate to: developments in China; the impact of Fed rate tightening at a time of relative weakness in other parts of the world; and longer-term structural slowdown in the forms of secular stagnation or an emerging market middle-income trap. Risks remain very much skewed to the downside.
In this executive summary report of the quarterly Global Scenarios Service, we explore these downside risks, as well as a potential global growth upside surprise, through a number of alternative scenarios quantified using the Oxford Global Economic Model.
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