http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/OE_Main.asp Oxford Economics Latest News and Reports en-us http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/oerss.jpg http://www.oxfordeconomics.com 334 131 http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/latinamerica/cuba/dailybriefings/cubadb150411.pdf Ruling party congress to affirm moves to decentralise and encourage private business to boost growth and tourism, while likely offshore oil strikes could also improve outlook http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/westerneurope/euroxii/dailybriefings/exiidb150411.pdf Monetary policy tightening to proceed very slowly as economy remains weak, core inflation is subdued and peripheral economies face mounting pressures http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/westerneurope/italy/dailybriefings/italdb150411.pdf Early data for Q1 confirm domestic demand remains weak, with GDP seen growing just 1.1% this year despite better than expected progress on deficit reduction http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/easterneurope/kazakhstan/dailybriefings/kazadb150411.pdf Huge election win for Nazarbayev after opposition boycott may ensure stability, with GDP growing by about 6% this year and next on high oil and copper revenues http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/on-line%20services/general/emweekly/em_weekly_150411.pdf China – tightening to stave off overheating risks http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/on-line%20services/general/euroweekly/ezweek150411.pdf ECB raises rates and Portugal seeks help http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/latinamerica/brazil/dailybriefings/brazdb130411.pdf Hope of more benign inflation pressures may see just one more rate rise, but GDP growth seen slowing to 4.2% this year and longer-term potential constrained http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/africa_middleeast/egypt/dailybriefings/egypdb130411.pdf Elections set for September but risk of political and policy drift before then; tourism collapsed in Q1, but seen recovering to support GDP growth of 3.5% in 2011/12 http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/westerneurope/france/dailybriefings/frandb130411.pdf Strong 0.7% rise in Q1 GDP now expected as output and consumption climb, lifting full-year forecast to 1.8%, while inflation stays comfortably below 2% http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/westerneurope/netherlands/dailybriefings/nethdb130411.pdf Domestic support for growth to build slowly, but GDP still seen rising only 1.7% this year as squeeze on real wages continues despite low inflation http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/africa_middleeast/angola/dailybriefings/angodb120411.pdf Renewed rise in oil output and high revenues to lift GDP growth to 7% this year with external surplus rising strongly, bringing prospect of credit rating upgrade http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/africa_middleeast/bahrain/dailybriefings/bahrdb120411.pdf Political tensions seen cutting GDP growth to about 3.5%, with activity in finance and services weaker but support from public spending and manufacturing http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/westerneurope/germany/dailybriefings/germdb120411.pdf GDP growth forecast raised to 2.6% as early data for Q1 suggest strong industrial activity and labour market improves; possible downside risk from banking sector http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/asia_pacific/southkorea/dailybriefings/skordb110411.pdf Strong Q1 but growth expected to be less robust during rest of 2011 and, with inflation at 4.7% in March, further interest rate hikes are expected in Q2 http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/easterneurope/ukraine/dailybriefings/ukradb110411.pdf Industrial exports lift Q1 growth above 4.5% budget target and help steady UAH; but IMF delay over stalled pension reform needs resolution to keep deficit reduction on track http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/latinamerica/uruguay/dailybriefings/urugdb110411.pdf Growth seen slowing to about 5% this year, but with inflation now over 8% interest rates look set to climb further and rising imports to lift current account deficit http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/on-line%20services/general/usweekly/usweek110411.pdf Budget brinkmanship http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/africa_middleeast/ghana/dailybriefings/ghandb080411.pdf Ghana: Oil output to lift GDP growth to 10-12% this year, reducing fiscal and current account deficits, but hopes of sustained single-digit inflation likely to be thwarted http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/africa_middleeast/kuwait/dailybriefings/kuwadb08411.pdf Growth still seen at 5% this year despite mounting political tensions as oil revenues rise sharply, boosting public spending and lifting current account surplus to 40% of GDP http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/on-line%20services/general/emweekly/em_weekly_080411.pdf Gradual monetary tightening continues http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/on-line%20services/general/euroweekly/ezweek080411.pdf Raising rates now is a policy mistake http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/easterneurope/lithuania/dailybriefings/lithdb070411.pdf Weaker net exports cast doubt on official forecast of 5.8% GDP growth this year; outturn closer to 4% and inflation above 3% cast doubt on euro qualification in 2012 http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/asia_pacific/maldives/dailybriefings/malddb070411.pdf Central bank sees GDP growth of up to 12% this year as oil output rises strongly, with high revenues to cut the current account deficit sharply and boost public finances http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/africa_middleeast/iraq/dailybriefings/iraqdb060411.pdf Central bank sees GDP growth of up to 12% this year as oil output rises strongly, with high revenues to cut the current account deficit sharply and boost public finances http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/easterneurope/russia/dailybriefings/russdb060411.pdf High oil prices to lift GDP growth to just over 5% this year from 4% in 2010, but inflation still at 9.5% in March to bring more monetary policy tightening soon http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/africa_middleeast/syria/dailybriefings/syridb060411.pdf Political unrest to hit tourism and FDI, cutting 2011 GDP growth to only 2.5% from 4.5% last year and earlier hopes of 5-6%, but high oil prices are reducing external deficit http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/easterneurope/latvia/dailybriefings/latvdb050411.pdf Rating upgrades open way to investment revival and orderly exit from IMF support, but depend on continued fiscal tightening that will keep GDP growth below 3.5% in 2011 http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/africa_middleeast/turkey/dailybriefings/turkdb050411.pdf March tightening suggests central bank more aware of risks but, given still strong growth, policy will have to be tightened steadily this year, dampening prospects in 2012 http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/easterneurope/turkmenistan/dailybriefings/turmdb050411.pdf Growth of 12% seen this year after 9% in 2010, on stronger regional demand, higher FDI and gas investment, with current account moving into small surplus http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/africa_middleeast/cape%20verde/dailybriefings/capvdb040411.pdf Tourism revival and public spending driving growth of GDP of 5.5% this year after 4.3% in 2010, but close links with weak EU economy may restrain prospects http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/latinamerica/cayman%20islands/dailybriefings/caymdb040411.pdf GDP again fell by over 4% in 2010, but gradual recovery in tourism and financial services to deliver growth of about 2% this year, with inflation subdued http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/easterneurope/kyrgyzstan/dailybriefings/kyrgdb040411.pdf Economy to rebound in 2011 with 6% GDP growth driven by rising commodity output and prices and helped by more stable politics, although 20% inflation is worrying http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/on-line%20services/general/usweekly/usweek040411.pdf The positive March labor market report included some negatives http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/africa_middleeast/chad/dailybriefings/chaddb280311.pdf Little risk of any spill-over from Libya, with Deby poised for another win in April election; rising oil output lifted GDP growth to 6% in 2010, with 4-4.5% seen this year http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/latinamerica/chile/dailybriefings/childb280311.pdf Strong domestic demand lifted GDP by 5.1% in 2010, with continued investment and consumer demand to deliver 6% growth this year but with rising inflation risks http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/asia_pacific/malaysia/dailybriefings/maladb280311.pdf Signs of slowing output and exports in recent months but GDP growth still seen at 5.3% in 2011 after 7.2% last year, with rate rises to resume soon http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/africa_middleeast/qatar/dailybriefings/qatadb280311.pdf No sign of domestic political unrest despite regional tensions, with GDP growth seen at 13.5% in 2011 and current account surplus rising strongly on high oil and gas revenues http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/on-line%20services/general/usweekly/usweek280311.pdf A negative signal from the orders data? http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/westerneurope/iceland/dailybriefings/iceldb250311.pdf Growth of just 2% seen this year after recovery stalled in Q4 2010; investment reviving, but under threat if 9 April vote rejects new bank compensation deal http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/westerneurope/iceland/dailybriefings/iceldb250311.pdf Growth of just 2% seen this year after recovery stalled in Q4 2010; investment reviving, but under threat if 9 April vote rejects new bank compensation deal http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/africa_middleeast/uae/dailybriefings/uaemdb250311.pdf With few signs of local unrest, regional tensions may boost UAE prospects, with rising oil prices and output to lift GDP growth to over 4% and boost government spending http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/on-line%20services/general/emweekly/em_weekly_250311.pdf Solid outlook for ASEAN in 2011 http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/on-line%20services/general/euroweekly/ezweek250311.pdf Higher ECB rates could widen Eurozone divergence http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/westerneurope/austria/dailybriefings/oestdb240311.pdf GDP growth seen holding just above 2% this year despite weak consumer demand and slowing exports as domestic output and investment continue to expand http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/westerneurope/greece/dailybriefings/greedb240311.pdf Fiscal deficit reduction proceeding well but more austerity measures this year are likely to see GDP fall a further 4%, adding to doubts about tax revenues http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/africa_middleeast/oman/dailybriefings/omandb240311.pdf Political risks rising but policy measures should help contain unrest; GDP growth seen at 4.7% in 2011 as high oil revenues boost spending and current account surplus http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/latinamerica/peru/dailybriefings/perudb240311.pdf Presidential elections in April likely to be inconclusive, with second-round vote seen in June; continued strong GDP growth brings more rate hikes as inflation edges higher http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/easterneurope/romania/dailybriefings/romadb240311.pdf Exports remain strong but weak domestic demand to hold 2011 GDP growth down to just over 1%, before picking up to 4% in 2012 as domestic demand improves http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/latinamerica/argentina/dailybriefings/argedb230311.pdf Strong private consumption and investment drove growth of 9.2% in 2010, but pushing up inflation and leading to sharp fall in external surpluses http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/easterneurope/bosnia/dailybriefings/bosndb230311.pdf Growth picking up from about 1% in 2010, led by exports, but energy costs drive inflation higher and progress at risk from post-election political splits http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/africa_middleeast/cotedivoire/dailybriefings/cdivdb230311.pdf Gbagbo refusal to stand down after election defeat brings risk of civil war, with GDP growth seen slowing to zero as sanctions bite and aid flows halt http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/easterneurope/croatia/dailybriefings/croadb220311.pdf Weak end to 2010, with Q4 GDP down 0.7% year-on-year, 19% unemployment and subdued consumer demand to hold growth to only about 1% this year http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/easterneurope/georgia/dailybriefings/geordb220311.pdf GDP growth to slow to 5.5% this year, after 6.7% rebound in 2010 relied on fiscal deficit, which now needs reduction for debt sustainability, but lifted inflation to 13.7% in Q1 http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/africa_middleeast/rwanda/dailybriefings/rwandb220311.pdf GDP growth put at almost 7.5% last year, up from 6% in 2009, on higher commodity production and prices, with FDI and aid attracted by ongoing reforms http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/easterneurope/uzbekistan/dailybriefings/uzbedb220311.pdf GDP growth stayed above 8% last year and seen rising to 9% this year as surging export revenues, fiscal stimulus and FDI inflows continue to boost activity http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/latinamerica/aruba/dailybriefings/arubdb210311.pdf Re-opening of Valero oil refinery and rising tourism to lift GDP growth to about 8% this year after 3.7% decline in 2010, with current account returning to surplus http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/asia_pacific/hongkong/dailybriefings/hongdb210311.pdf Strong domestic demand and pick-up in exports from mainland China now seen driving growth of 6% this year, down only modestly from 6.8% in 2010 http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/africa_middleeast/israel/dailybriefings/isradb210311.pdf Strong consumer demand and investment drove 1.9% rise in Q4 GDP, delivering 2010 growth of 4.6%, with only slight slowdown seen this year despite regional tensionsWeak exports led to fall in Q4 GDP and, together with weak consumer confidence and likely rise in rates, mean growth in 2011 is now forecast at only 2% http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/westerneurope/italy/dailybriefings/italdb210311.pdf Manufacturing still recovering but very weak consumer demand to hold GDP growth to only about 1% this year, with output still well below pre-crisis peak http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/on-line%20services/general/usweekly/usweek210311.pdf What will be the impact of the Tohoku earthquake? http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/westerneurope/denmark/dailybriefings/denmdb180311.pdf Weak exports led to fall in Q4 GDP and, together with weak consumer confidence and likely rise in rates, mean growth in 2011 is now forecast at only 2% http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/asia_pacific/indonesia/dailybriefings/indodb180311.pdf Consumer spending growing strongly, seen keeping GDP growth above 6% this year, but interest rates set to rise further with inflation close to 7% http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/africa_middleeast/saudi%20arabia/dailybriefings/sauddb1803111.pdf Political risks rising but unrest should be contained, with GDP now seen growing 5.3% in 2011 as oil revenues surge and public spending accelerates http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/on-line%20services/general/emweekly/em_weekly_180311.pdf Political and inflation risks threaten the previously optimistic growth outlook in the GCC http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/on-line%20services/general/euroweekly/ezweek180311.pdf What will be the impact of the Tohoku earthquake? http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/latinamerica/ecuador/dailybriefings/ecuadb170311.pdf Referendum giving Correa more powers set for May; high oil prices to lift growth to3.7% in 2011, with small current account surplus and lower fiscal deficit http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/africa_middleeast/turkey/dailybriefings/turkdb170311.pdf Strong demand and output growth, high bank lending and widening current account deficit suggest that monetary policy needs to be tightened much more decisively http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/westerneurope/belgium/dailybriefings/belgdb160311.pdf Slightly stronger Q4 meant GDP rose 2.1% in 2010, above Eurozone average, with similar pace seen this year as exports weaken and political deadlock continues http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/asia_pacific/brunei/dailybriefings/brundb160311.pdf Oil price recovery restored growth of around 1% in 2010, with slow expansion to continue this year as heavy external investment keeps inflation pressures down http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/westerneurope/switzerland/dailybriefings/switdb160311.pdf Economy gathered pace at end 2010 and GDP now seen growing 2.4%, slightly below 2010 as export performance is hit by strong CHF http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/latinamerica/venezuela/dailybriefings/venedb160311.pdf GDP decline in 2010 revised down to 1.4% and rise in oil output to drive growth of 2% this year, but non-oil sector still weak and inflation still close to 30% http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/latinamerica/brazil/dailybriefings/brazdb140311.pdf Pace of activity eased at end-2010, but full-year growth still 7.5%; growth to slow to just over 4% this year as rate rises continue and spending cuts may be coming http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/namerica/canada/dailybriefings/canadb140311.pdf Strong Q4 meant 2010 GDP growth was 3.1% and, with high oil prices boosting exports, 2011 growth forecast raised to 2.9% despite strong CAD http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/westerneurope/france/dailybriefings/frandb140311.pdf Inflation of 1.8% still below Eurozone average but set to climb further on higher oil prices although labour market slack means little sign of wage pressures http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/asia_pacific/japan/dailybriefings/japadb140311.pdf Some signs of stronger growth in early 2011 after 0.3% GDP fall in Q4 2010, but earthquake devastation will weigh on activity before reconstruction gathers pace http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/westerneurope/norway/dailybriefings/norwdb140311.pdf Strong oil sector lifted GDP by 2.4% on the quarter in Q4 but full-year expansion just 0.4%; pick-up to 3.1% seen in 2011, as oil revenues boost budget surplus http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/westerneurope/norway/dailybriefings/norwdb140311.pdf Strong oil sector lifted GDP by 2.4% on the quarter in Q4 but full-year expansion just 0.4%; pick-up to 3.1% seen in 2011, as oil revenues boost budget surplus http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/westerneurope/uk/dailybriefings/britdb140311.pdf Survey data point to 0.9% rebound in GDP in Q1 this year after weather-related 0.6% fall in Q4, but rising inflation means rates may rise sooner than earlier expected http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/on-line%20services/general/usweekly/usamdb110311.pdf Outlook for the US economy – the good news and the bad news http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/on-line%20services/general/usweekly/usamdb110311.pdf Outlook for the US economy – the good news and the bad news http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/easterneurope/serbia/dailybriefings/serbdb080311.pdf Likely IMF standby renewal to support growth of 3% in 2011 but high inflation and mounting public protest may slow reforms needed for private investment recovery http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/asia_pacific/southkorea/dailybriefings/skordb080311.pdf Surging start to 2011 with exports, output and sales all strong, but rising prices will act as a check so 3.8% GDP growth still expected http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/hilfe/asia_pacific/thailand/dailybriefings/thaidb080311.pdf GDP rose strongly in Q4 2010 and this year started well with consumption, investment and exports all rising in January, likely to bring another rate rise this month