Linking industry forecasts to our global economic assumptions and projections
Our industry model uses demand as its key input. Other variables, such as exchange rates and commodity prices, are used when appropriate. These data points run off our latest economic forecasts and generate projections of output by industry and sub-sector.
The model is based on 2,000 indices, prices and input-output tables, and it makes use of NACE industrial classifications. Industrial coverage includes manufacturing and services sectors in 67 economies. Training and support are included in the subscription fee.
What the service includes:
- Comprehensive industry coverage. For each country, we include 85 manufacturing industries, ten service sectors and other relevant series (eg, car sales, steel production). The model, which uses NACE classifications, focuses on forecasting output or value-added by industry.
- Advanced model structure. The industry model is designed to produce forecasts of indices of real net output by industry based on an input-output framework (through an allocation of investment, consumption and export trends for each industry, considering industry linkages). The model is built around quarterly data for 25 countries and annual data for the remaining 42 countries from 1980 to 2021 or 2036. The model is closely integrated with the Oxford Global Macro Model. This structure allows the user to perform scenario analysis to assess the impact of macroeconomic shocks on key industries.
- Regularly updated. To ensure the timeliness of our model, we update the historical data and forecasts every quarter, and we feed in the latest monthly macroeconomic data. Each economist reviews the industry forecasts from the model to make sure they are consistent with our global assumptions and country projections.
- User-friendly and flexible. The Global Industry Model, which runs on Windows-based software, is an easy-to-use tool for economists and non-economists. The model is flexible, and it is possible to change or add equations and variables for deeper analysis. It has graphing capability and allows Excel data downloads. The subscription also gives you access to our economists and industry analysts to answer any questions.