Track record: Oxford Economics continues to outperform other global forecasters, August 2013
The weak and uneven recovery after the peak of Great Recession has been a tough time for households and businesses alike. But it has been also a challenging period for economists to provide accurate and timely forecasts aligned with the unusually weak recovery in almost all major economies.
Two key aspects of Oxford Economics’ forecasting methodology have helped us stay on top of emerging trends during the weak recovery aftermath the crisis. First, we update our forecasts monthly, and even more frequently when necessary. Second, we rely on our Global Economic Model – the world's most widely used integrated macroeconomic model – to analyse the impact of alternative economic and financial scenarios. As a result, we quickly assessed the severity of the downturn, highlighting that "Only in the US are significant upside risks to growth visible. There, more progress has been in adjusting the balance sheets of banks and consumers and monetary policy has been more effective. The Fed’s additional asset purchases into 2013 could contribute to surprisingly strong growth by the end of the year.” Equally, our leading-edge model has enabled us to predict subsequent developments in the global economy with greater accuracy than most other forecasters.
Forecast performance compared
2008 - 2012
(average absolute forecast divergence for real GDP growth)
|Note: Forecasts made in December for year ahead.|
Figures for Consensus, EIU and Global Insight are taken from Consensus Economics