Evidence-based analysis for the aviation sector
Some of our clients
Air France-KLM, Air Transport Action Group, Airport Munich, Auckland Airports, Austrian Airlines, British Airways, British Airways, Changi Airport Group, Dubai airports, Emirates, Etihad Airways, Eurocontrol, Flybe, IATA, LHR Airports Ltd, Malaysian Airline Systems Berhad, National Air Traffic Services, Oman Air, South African Airlines, and United Airlines.
Airlines and airports are critical infrastructure assets for modern, globally linked economies. Every year, they fly more than 2.5 billion passengers and 50 million tonnes of freight. They help to facilitate long-term growth by providing access to international markets, supporting tourism, encouraging investment, and helping to enhance national productivity. At the same time, aviation is an economic engine that can generate long-term economic prosperity for local and national economies, with an annual turnover of more than $1 trillion, and directly employing over 5.5 million workers.
Macro matters to airlines and airports as economic shifts, changes in regulation, geopolitical uncertainty, and technological advancement have the power to the transform the future of aviation. To help executives and government leaders understand the challenges, opportunities and risks that loom ahead, Oxford Economics’ team of economists and industry experts draw on the latest models and analytical tools to provide valuable decision support on some of today’s most critical aviation issues, including:
- The likelihood and impact of economic, political, market, and regulatory changes
- Long-term forecasts of macroeconomic trends in more than 200 countries and 3,000 cities and regions worldwide
- The outlook for energy prices under a base forecast and alternative scenarios
- Future market trends for travel between cities and countries
- Forecasts for tourism activity in 185 countries
- Best practices for managing risks and exploiting new market opportunities
How airlines and airport clients use our analysis:
- Track economic prospects in origin and destination markets under a base forecast and alternative economic scenarios, using our country, industry and city-level forecasts.
- Draw on our timely analysis of the macroeconomic environment, to monitor external drivers and shocks that will have an impact on travel, shipping, and tourism.
- Analyze long-term developments in market share for key outbound markets in more than 180 countries.
- Incorporate Oxford Economics’ country, industry, and tourism analysis in annual forecasting and strategic planning, and as part of the due diligence process.
- Include Oxford scenario analysis in their long-term strategic planning, hedging strategies and risk management.
- Measure the economic impact to the national economy of an airline, infrastructure project, tax, or legislation, or the impact on the sector of policy changes or economic shocks.
Examples of custom research projects for airlines and airports
- Explaining Dubai’s aviation model. This report, commissioned by Emirates and Dubai Airports, measures the contribution of the aviation sector to Dubai’s economy. It shows the sector’s economic footprint in terms of direct contribution to GDP and jobs supported, the benefits of purchases of goods and services from local businesses, and the catalytic benefits of aviation to travel and tourism, financial, and professional services.
- Economic and social benefits of air transport in 58 countries for the Air Transport Action Group’s (ATAG) “Benefits of Aviation” initiative, with global and regional figures including case studies of how aviation connects people, drives economic and social progress, provides access to global markets, generates trade and tourism, and creates links between developing and developed markets.
- Measuring the economic value of South African Airlines to the national economy as a core component of the airline’s Long Term Turnaround Strategy. The reports show how SAA as a state-owned airline fulfils its mandate of being profitable while contributing to South African GDP, job creation, and skills development.
- Demonstrating the value of nights flights at Heathrow Airport, (link) where we assessed the total contribution of Heathrow Night Quota Period (NQP) flights to the national economy. The project assessed the direct contribution in terms of value added, jobs created, and tax revenue generated, and also measured indirect and induced impacts of goods and services purchased from other sectors of the economy through the supply chain to airlines and the airport.
- Creation of custom forecasts for European GDP to 2031 to gauge the growth of EU traffic zones, with benchmarks against global traffic regions.
- Modeling the impact of oil price shocks to show the effects of a “Peak Oil” scenario on energy prices.
- Supply of custom data feeds for use in internal planning and resourcing, including long term projections of economic activity under alternative scenarios.
Find out more
To find out more, including how we can adapt our economic modelling, forecasts, monitoring, or scenarios to meet the needs of your organisation or sector, please contact your nearest Oxford Economics office.