Case Studies
Oxford Economics' Sponsorship of OXONIA Distinguished Speaker Seminar Series
Oxford Economics is pleased to be sponsoring this series of talks by distinguished speakers in Oxford, which our clients can attend.OXONIA, The Oxford Institute for Economic Policy, provides a global forum for engaging a broad consortium of those in the public policy community into the analysis, discussion, and dissemination of policy issues, with the aim of encompassing innovative academic research into the broad public policy framework.
more
Economic risk assessments
Oxford Economics' Global Macro Model provides a rigorous framework for analysing the impact of alternative scenarios and major threats to economies. For example, it suggests that the minimum cost of a global Avian flu pandemic would be $400 billion of lost GDP
more
Influencing government policy
We help companies' corporate affairs and strategy teams make the case for economic policies or for investment proposals. For example, a report, prepared for the UK Film Council and Pinewood Shepperton, assesses the different ways in which the film industry contributes to the UK economy, and the importance of the new Film Tax Relief for the competitiveness of film production in the UK.
more
Transportation Policy Analysis
Grand Bahama Island shoulders the most expensive air service in the Caribbean. Our Tourism Economics team examined causes behind these costs and identified opportunities for revamping service agreements and operations to secure efficient and growing air service.
more
Investment Feasibility
Developers of a 800-acre mixed resort needed to correctly define their product mix, pricing, and evaluate competition. A market study by our Tourism Economics group has positioned our client to attract partners and capital to move forward quickly.
more
Current Highlights
Oxford Economics' Blog
Despite signs of slowing, there is still cause for optimism
A number of weaker than expected indicators suggest that the economy is slowing down as it did in H1 last year. However, some of the weakness probably reflects a payback from the mild winter boost to activity and this payback is probably near completion. And the discouraging indicators are contradicted by others that remain relatively reassuring.
Growth is expected at 2.3% in 2012Q2 but should strengthen moderately in the second half of the year. A mild stumble is expected early in 2013 due to fiscal tightening, but on an annual basis growth should pick up to 2.7% next year from 2.4% this.
Read more here: Article
Break-up fears intensify again
Concern about a possible Eurozone break-up has intensified following the inconclusive outcome of the Greek elections. Our baseline continues to assume that a break-up is avoided but should Greece decide to leave the Eurozone (by reneging on the terms of its second bailout), pressure on other peripheral countries would be immense.
Read more here: Article
Emerging middle class to drive global growth
Consumers in the G7 countries have been the primary source of demand in the global economy for the last 25 years, and over the same period the emerging markets have established an increasing share in the supply of goods to the world.
But following the global financial crisis of 2008/09, the Eurozone is struggling under the weight of huge debts and the US is growing only modestly. In these areas, consumer spending is expected to be very subdued, while in contrast growth in the emerging markets is forecast to far outpace that in the advanced economies. Oxford Economics forecasts for household incomes show that the number of emerging market households enjoying higher incomes will grow sharply over the next ten years; indeed, the number of households in the emerging markets enjoying an income of over US$30,000 will more than double to 149m by 2020, overtaking the US (120m) and the Eurozone (116m).
Read more here: Article
14 May 2012learn more
Once again the global recovery is threatened by rising oil prices
Our baseline forecast assumes that the oil price drifts back down over the next two years as the risk premium embedded in it falls. However, there is clearly a risk that due to tensions in the Middle East the oil price does not fall back as assumed but rises sharply instead.
To get a feel for the magnitude and distribution of the potential impact on the global economy we have modelled a spike in the oil price to $200 in the winter of 2012/13. Such a sharp rise in the oil price has the potential to change 2013 from being a year of moderate growth for the US economy to one of virtually no growth at all. It could push the UK into a mild recession in 2013 and worsen the Eurozone recession. Indeed, conditions could be sufficiently dire to trigger a break-up of the Eurozone.
Emerging markets would be unable to fully shield themselves. Unlike the developed economies, they have scope to use fiscal policy to reduce the impact of the oil price spike on their economies. However, because higher oil prices have more serious inflationary consequences for emerging economies, some would probably respond to a rise in the oil price to $200 by reversing their current monetary policy easing cycle.
23 March 2012learn more
International Industry Services: Service Enhancements
We have made some important changes to the Oxford Economics Industry Service. The result of these changes is that we can now offer a fully comprehensive industry service within the context of our linked global macroeconomic forecasts. Please Click Here to view the power point presentation and summary of changes.
19 March 2012learn more
By-Country Industry Forecast Service
We are publishing new on-line reports providing detailed forecasts for prospects in over 80 industrial sectors across 68 different economies. The new service provides:
- Forecasts for output growth on an annual basis over the next 10 years for over 80 sectors
- Charts and tables highlighting key industrial output trends, past and future
- Access to our Sectoral Forecast Databank, offering historical data and ten-year forecasts to download for your own analysis and reports
- Forecasts derived from our highly-disciplined forecasting process using our Global Industrial Model
Poland China
See full range of countries covered ....
Country Economic Forecast Service
We are publishing new on-line country economic forecasts every day covering economic and political developments and prospects in over 175 countries, linked to our forecast databank:
- Tailor-made for busy executives, the forecasts tell you everything you need to know for your business planning
- Access to our Macro Forecast Databank, offering historical data and ten-year forecasts for a host of economic and social indicators plus detailed tourism statistics
- Forecasts derived from our highly-disciplined forecasting process using our Global Model (the most widely used commercial model in the world)
Thailand Germany Czech Republic
See full range of countries covered ....
Analysis for Better Decisions
Oxford Economics - formerly Oxford Economic Forecasting - is a world-leader in quantitative analysis and rigorous economic forecasting. Our evidence-based approach to economic analysis helps businesses, governments and international organisations make the right investment, policy and market decisions.
learn more