Case Studies
Economic risk assessments
Oxford Economics' Global Macro Model provides a rigorous framework for analysing the impact of alternative scenarios and major threats to economies. For example, it suggests that the minimum cost of a global Avian flu pandemic would be $400 billion of lost GDP
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Influencing government policy
We help companies' corporate affairs and strategy teams make the case for economic policies or for investment proposals. For example, a report, prepared for the UK Film Council and Pinewood Shepperton, assesses the different ways in which the film industry contributes to the UK economy, and the importance of the new Film Tax Relief for the competitiveness of film production in the UK.
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Transportation Policy Analysis
Grand Bahama Island shoulders the most expensive air service in the Caribbean. Our Tourism Economics team examined causes behind these costs and identified opportunities for revamping service agreements and operations to secure efficient and growing air service.
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Investment Feasibility
Developers of a 800-acre mixed resort needed to correctly define their product mix, pricing, and evaluate competition. A market study by our Tourism Economics group has positioned our client to attract partners and capital to move forward quickly.
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Current Highlights
Credit Crunch Watch:
The financial stress indicator was unchanged this week, with a further easing of liquidity conditions in money markets offset by higher equity volatility and wider high-yield bond spreads. Developments in mortgage spreads were mixed – 30-year spreads declined again, while 1-year ARM spreads widened further. Mortgage rates overall remain only moderately below the levels prevailing just before the credit crunch hit – despite the Fed Funds rate having been cut to 1%. Meanwhile, monetary conditions loosened slightly. The yield curve is now almost as steep as the peak levels of 1992 and 2003, but the loosening effect on monetary conditions continues to be partially offset by the strength of the dollar. 14 November 2008
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The implications of the financial crisis for global growth
Recent weeks have seen the most serious wave of financial turmoil since the credit crunch began. The extent of the distress in financial markets prompted policymakers to propose dramatic action to shore up the global banking system including direct recapitalisation of banks and state guarantees for interbank lending. The fluidity of the situation has also significantly increased the risks around forecasts. Our current forecast suggests growth will be around zero in the US, UK and Eurozone next year, with a recovery in 2010. In an alternative downside scenario where the financial sector takes longer to recover and asset prices fall more steeply, the major economies could face the deepest recession since the early 1980s. We consider this alternative only slightly less likely than our central forecast. 23 October 2008
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Sectoral Outlook Briefing Service
We are publishing new on-line briefings providing detailed forecasts for prospects in over 80 industrial sectors across 77 different countries. The new service provides:
- Forecasts for output growth on an annual basis over the next 10 years for over 80 sectors
- Charts and tables highlighting key industrial output trends, past and future
- Access to our Sectoral Forecast Databank, offering historical data and ten-year forecasts to download for your own analysis and reports
- Forecasts derived from our highly-disciplined forecasting process using our Global Industrial Model
Poland China
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Country Briefing Service
We are publishing new on-line country briefings every day covering economic and political developments and prospects in over 175 countries, linked to our forecast databank:
- Tailor-made for busy executives, the briefings tell you everything you need to know for your business planning
- Access to our Macro Forecast Databank, offering historical data and ten-year forecasts for a host of economic and social indicators plus detailed tourism statistics
- Forecasts derived from our highly-disciplined forecasting process using our Global Model (the most widely used commercial model in the world)
Thailand Germany Czech Republic
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Analysis for Better Decisions
Oxford Economics - formerly Oxford Economic Forecasting - is a world-leader in quantitative analysis and rigorous economic forecasting. Our evidence-based approach to economic analysis helps businesses, governments and international organisations make the right investment, policy and market decisions.
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