Global Economics
Oxford Economics provides detailed analysis and forecasts on developments and prospects in the global economy. Our forecasts cover over 175 countries. But the main focus of our work is supporting our clients' investment, marketing and policy decisions by advising on the 'big issues' affecting the major economies.
Our international macro service includes:
- Forecasts for a wealth of macro indicators up to 25 years ahead
- Monthly forecast updates
- Regular outlook conferences
- Reports setting out clearly the key drivers of global economic performance
- Scenario analysis illustrating the implications of the major risks to the global economy
- Telephone and email support from our team of economists
In addition, we can provide consultancy advice on a wide range of client decisions related to the international economy, including financial markets, trade and capital flows, and energy markets.
Forecast reports
Our forecast reports provide a concise overview of the key drivers in the global economy and identify the main macroeconomic opportunities and risks for business and policy:
- Country economic forecasts - new on-line forecasts every day covering economic and politic developments and prospects in over 175 countries, linked to our forecast databank. View example forecasts:
- World Economic Prospects Monthly Review - timely analysis of developments and prospects in the major economies (view sample)
- Emerging Markets Economic Outlook - a quarterly review of developments and prospects for the key emerging economies (view sample)
- World Long-Term Economic Prospects - projections for the major economies over the next 10 years (view sample)
- US Weekly Brief - high frequency analysis of the latest economic news in the US (view sample)
- Eurozone Weekly Brief - high frequency analysis of the latest economic news in the Eurozone (view sample)
- Emerging Markets Weekly Brief - highlighting the latest economic news in the leading emerging economies (view sample)
- Commodity Price Monitor - a monthly report on developments and prospects in energy and other commodity markets (view sample)
Outlook conferences
Our outlook conferences are a highly effective way to keep up-to-date on the major issues facing the global economy. They provide you with the opportunity to discuss the key risks that could impact on your business with our team, and to interact with peers from a diverse range of organisations.
Our presentations provide a non-technical overview of the analysis underpinning our forecasts. And we encourage a lively debate through Q&A with our senior economists.
Issues addressed at recent events include:
- What will be different after the Great Recession?
- What are the challenges for the next UK government?
- How will the fiscal tightening impact the recovery?
- Which G2 will matter by 2020?
- Is it an L, a U, a V, a W or a square root?
Forthcoming events:
Thursday, 9 September 2010 (One Great George Street, Westminster, London) ; Covering: International Macro; UK Macro;
World and UK Economic Outlook Briefing
Thursday, 16 September 2010 (Washington DC) ; Covering: International Macro;
International Outlook Conference
Friday, 17 September 2010 (New York) ; Covering: International Macro;
International Outlook Conference
Thursday, 18 November 2010 (Eurosites George V, Paris) ; Covering: International Macro;
International Macro & Regional Outlook Briefing
Friday, 19 November 2010 (Hilton Frankfurt) ; Covering: UK Regional Analysis; International Macro;
International Macro & Regional Outlook Briefing
Wednesday, 24 November 2010 (One Great George Street, Westminster, London) ; Covering: International Macro; Emerging Markets;
International Macro & Emerging Markets Outlook Conference
Presentations from previous conferences.
Forecast databank
Our forecast databank provides immediate access to a wealth of economic data, forecasts and analytical tools:
- Macro forecasts for over 175 countries
- Thousands of series available
- Forecasts up to 25 years ahead
- Historic data available from 1980
- View data/forecasts on-screen or download in spreadsheet format
- On-line graphics and analysis tools
Scenario analysis
Oxford Economics is uniquely placed to provide rigorous, quantitative analysis of global economic scenarios and risks. Our Global Macro Model provides the ideal framework in which we can explore issues such as:
- What would be the implications of oil prices hitting $150 pb?
- How would a revaluation of the Chinese currency affect the world economy?
- How damaging would an Avian flu epidemic be?
- What is the impact of government budget cuts on economic growth and the operation of monetary policy?
- What would the implications of trade liberalisation be for the EU?
As well as advising on the implications of such risks and their likelihood, we are also able to offer tailored advice on their implications for your markets and your business.
Country coverage
Our forecasts cover over 175 countries. The information available is particularly detailed for the 45 major economies covered in our Global Macro Model, with our forecasts updated on a monthly basis.
Our forecast process
Oxford Economics' forecast process combines detailed country analysis by our experienced economists with the rigour and consistency provided by our Global Macro Model.
Our forecast process involves:
- On-going monitoring of developments by our country economists
- A series of forecast meetings at the start of each month to discuss the important news that might change our forecast and to agree forecasts for key global assumptions (eg the oil price)
- Country economists then prepare an initial forecast
- These forecasts are combined and the Oxford Global Model solved to produce a new world forecast, taking into account all of the interactions between different countries (eg through trade, exchange rates, asset prices etc)
- Country economists review the new forecasts and make modifications reflecting their interpretation of recent data and leading indicators (eg from business surveys)
- The Oxford Global Model is then solved again and there is a series of iterations towards a new global forecast
- Senior staff continually review the forecast as it evolves to ensure its consistency
- The forecast is made available to clients on the day it is completed via our website, along with an updated dataset for the Oxford Global Model
Senior International Macro Economists
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| Kiran Ahmed joined Oxford Economics as an Economist in August 2007. She is part of the industry forecasting team and her work on the International Industry Model primarily involves the metals and intermediate goods sectors. Kiran has also been involved in consultancy work including a bespoke project for Airbus, an economic and social impact study for the Corporation of London and a study for the UK Film Council investigating the economic consequences of film tax relief changes.
Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Kiran worked for three years at CRU, a major metals & mining consultancy, as an analyst in the Aluminium team. During her time there, she contributed to primary aluminium demand analysis and downstream supply & demand analysis for the team’s regular products and was the editor of one of the team’s monthly publications.
Kiran also worked on consultancy projects and contributed to the production of CRU’s macroeconomic forecasts.
Kiran was educated at Kingston University where she obtained a BA(Hons) in Economics and at Nottingham University where she obtained an MSc in Economics.
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| Pablo has been a senior economist at Oxford Economics since 2001, working as part of the macroeconomic team. He is responsible for the analysis and forecast of the Latin American economies. Pablo has also been managing a series of consultancy projects related to the tourist sector, including the development Tourism Satellite Accounts for a number of countries and regions. He is co-creator of the Oxford Latin American Economic History Database (OxLAD), a comprehensive dataset covering twenty countries in the region for the period 1900-2000. Pablo has a D.Phil. in Economics and a M.Sc. in Development Economics from the University of Oxford. He also has an undergraduate degree in System Engineering from the Universidad de los Andes, Venezuela. Before joining OEF he was research fellow at St. Antony’s College, Oxford, where he worked on issues related to developing countries. He is fluent in English and Spanish and has an intermediate level of Portuguese. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Neil Blake is Director of Economic Analysis at Oxford Economics. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Neil was in charge of economic forecasting and consultancy for Experian having previously been a founding director of Business Strategies Ltd. He has also worked for Wharton Econometrics (Global Insight) and the University of East Anglia. He holds degrees from the Universities of York and Warwick.
At Business Strategies and Experian Neil developed a suite of models that include macroeconomic, regional and sub-regional, labour market, local impact, consumer market, property, occupational change, commuting patterns, household formation and demographics. He has also directed Experian Business Strategies European Regional research programme. In earlier work with Wharton Econometrics (WEFA) he also worked on World Modelling systems and foreign exchange forecasts. Current responsibilities include overseeing international regional and industry modeling, UK economic forecasting and input to public sector consultancy.
Altogether, Neil has been involved in economic forecasting for nearly twenty-five years. He has particular interests in the interpretation and use of survey information in economic analysis and in the supply-side analysis of national and regional economies. Dr. Blake has published on a wide range of subjects including economic growth, regional economic modelling, economic history and the use of survey data in economic analysis and forecasting. He was also part of a joint Treasury/DTI/ODPM working group on how to deliver the Government’s Regional Economic Performance Public Service Agreement and has worked on both the Lyons Review on the location of government employment and the Barker Review of the economic effects of restrictions on housing supply and is currently a member of the Department for Community and Local Government’s expert panels on "Neighborhoods, Cities and Regions" and "Housing Market and Planning". ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Charles Burton has had a long career in business economics. He began his career in 1974 as an economist for Beecham Pharmaceuticals, before joining the Confederation of British Industry in 1975. He spent 10 years at the CBI, where he ran the CBI's business surveys and economic forecasting teams. Latterly as Deputy Director of Economics, he was also responsible for the CBI's economic policy representations. Between 1985 and 1988, he was in charge of the economic forecasting and consultancy business of Wharton Econometrics in the UK and N Europe. In 1988, he was one of the founding directors and Chief Executive of Business Strategies Ltd, a leading independent forecasting and consulting operation. After its acquisition by Experian in 2002, he was the global MD for the Business Strategies division within Experian. He joined Oxford Economics in April 2008 as the Director of Business Development. He is also a Fellow and council member of the Society of Business Economists and non-executive Chairman of the Lewis Charles Sofia Property Fund Ltd. He is a member of the Scottish Government's Economic Consultants Advisory Group. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Adrian Cooper is responsible for coordinating and managing Oxford Economics’ global economic analysis, forecasting and consultancy activities, and overseeing its team based in Oxford, London, Belfast, Paris, New York, Philadelphia, Singapore and the UAE. He has led Oxford Economics’ work on a wide array of consultancy projects, ranging from policy advice to government departments in Europe, the US, Africa and Asia to detailed analysis of the economic impact of particular industries and investment proposals.
Adrian spent the first seven years of his career with HM Treasury, England. During this time, he worked on the analysis of tax and other economic policy changes as part of the preparations for the UK Budget. He was also the coordinator of the government's macroeconomic forecast for two years. Prior to joining Oxford Economics in 1994, Adrian was UK economist for James Capel & Company, responsible for analysing and forecasting the UK economy for institutional investors, as well as briefing Capel's own traders.
Adrian was educated at the University of Bristol, England, where he gained a first class degree in Economics; and at the London School of Economics and Political Science, England, where he achieved a distinction in the MSc in Economics and won the Ely Devons prize for outstanding performance in the degree examinations. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Patrick Dennis is a senior economist at Oxford Economics responsible for monitoring and forecasting a number of countries including many in the Middle East, Southern Africa, and SE Asia. Recently joined in November 2008, (though he has freelanced for Oxford Economics for many years) Patrick has over 25 years experience as an economist in the City. His first job was as a government statistician attached to HM Customs and Excise involved in interpreting and analysing the overseas trade statistics. He moved to the City in 1981 joining National Westminster Bank, principally as an UK economist specialising in inflation, money supply and the public finances but also had a spell in market research. Patrick moved in 1985 and became chief economist and head of research at Industrial Bank of Japan where he spent over 10 years covering everything from the macroeconomic analysis of the UK and Eurozone to country risk in Europe, Middle East and Africa, financial market trends and banking research. Patrick spent a further 7 years at Fuji bank and the merged Mizuho bank as a senior economist in charge of their country risk activities in Europe, Middle East, Africa and Central Asia. Patrick developed sophisticated country risk models and early warning indicators of currency crises that were adopted across the group. He also was responsible for credit supervision for all sovereign and quasi-sovereign transactions. Patrick spent another brief spell at Royal Bank of Scotland as a senior country economist before moving to his most recent job as Senior Economist at the City of London Corporation, the local authority for the ‘Square Mile.’ Patrick did his first economics degree at Leeds University before studying for an MPhil in economics at Oxford University. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Keith Edmonds is a senior economist at Oxford Economics, working as part of its international industries team, analysing global trends in the motor vehicle and high-tech sectors as well as the tourism sector, whilst also covering macroeconomic trends in Bulgaria and Romania. He has led Oxford Economics’ work on a wide array of consultancy projects, including the production of detailed Tourism Satellite Accounts, models for particular industries and studies of charity legacy income. He also coordinates Oxford Economics’ annual forecast for the global tourism industry which covers 181 countries.
Prior to joining Oxford Economics in June 2001, Keith worked as a professional economist for fifteen years in London, mainly in City investment banks, and was deputy head of research at the Japanese bank Mizuho International (formerly the Industrial Bank of Japan) from 1994-2000 and a senior economist at NatWest Markets (from 1989-94). His primary focus was on forecasting European economic and monetary developments, in particular analysing the development of Europe’s single currency and enlargement projects.
Keith was educated in 1979-82 at King’s College, Cambridge, England, where he gained an upper second class degree in Economics; and in 1982-83 at the University of Sussex, England, where he achieved an MA in Development Economics. He then spent 1983-85 working in Uganda’s Ministry of Planning and Economic Development in Kampala and has maintained an interest in Africa subsequently through several vacations there. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Doug Godden is a senior economist at Oxford Economics, working on both international industry forecasts and economic consultancy projects. Since joining the company in May 2009, his forecasting work has focused mainly on the construction sector, including a major contribution to the ‘Global Construction 2020’ project as well as inputs to the quarterly forecasting round. His consultancy work to date has covered various aspects of UK fiscal policy as well as the medium-term prospects for London’s economy. Doug joined Oxford Economics from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), where he spent 21 years in various economics-related positions – including Head of Economic Analysis from 2001 until 2007, during which time he was responsible for overseeing the organisation’s forecasting and economic survey outputs in addition to its Budget and other policy work. His final two years at the CBI, as Head of Economic and Fiscal Policy, were focused mainly on UK Budget policy matters. His earlier CBI career involved spells in both the Economic Analysis team, where he looked after the Industrial Trends Survey amongst other things, and in the Economic Policy team, where he was responsible for wide-ranging project work including fiscal and monetary policy matters, savings and investment issues, and aspects of European economic and monetary union. He also spent time on secondment at the Foreign Office’s European Union Department (1999-2000), and as Head of the CBI’s Enterprise Group, charged with looking after the organisation’s work in support of small and medium-sized enterprises (2000-01). Doug graduated from University College London in 1985 with a First Class BSc (Econ) degree in Economics. He went on to study at Brasenose College, Oxford, gaining the degree of Master of Philosophy (MPhil) in Economics in 1987. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Andrew Goodwin is a Senior Economist at Oxford Economics. He is responsible for forecasting and monitoring the UK economy and manages a number of related consultancy projects. Andrew contributes regular articles to a number of our publications and also co-ordinates the production of the quarterly UK Economic Outlook document.
Prior to joining Oxford Economics in August 2008, Andrew spent three years working for Experian where he managed the Regional Planning Service. He was responsible for producing UK macroeconomic forecasts from the national level down to local authorities and communicating the house view to clients. He also managed a range of consultancy projects for private and public sector clients, ranging from quantifying demand for major utility companies to analysing how changes in the macroeconomic environment impact on individual household balance sheets and spending patterns. Prior to joining Experian, Andrew spent four years as a Senior Economist at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) where he was responsible for producing the UK forecast, in addition to providing analysis for the CBI Industrial Trends Survey and CBI Distributive Trades Survey. Andrew was educated at the University of Surrey, where he gained an upper second class degree in Business Economics with Computing. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Simon Knapp is a senior economist at Oxford Economics, responsible for monitoring and forecasting developments across the emerging market economies (Oxford Economics currently forecasts over 140 emerging economies). He is editor and co-ordinator of the Emerging Markets Outlook quarterly document and the Emerging Markets Watch monthly updates. He has also worked extensively on consultancy projects related to this area, such as assessing China’s future commodity demands and forecasting oil demand in the emerging markets. Simon joined Oxford Economics in 2001. He spent the first eleven years of his career working as an economist in the investment banking subsidiary of Barclays Bank (BZW and Barclays Capital). This period included five years working as a UK economist, responsible for analysing and forecasting the UK economy for institutional investors, as well as briefing BZW’s own traders; five years as a global economist, responsible for generating new research used by the rest of the BZW Strategy department; and eighteen months as European economist. Simon was educated at the London School of Economics, where he gained an upper second class degree in Economics and subsequently an MSc in Economics. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Scott Livermore oversees the day-to-day running of Oxford Economics’ international macroeconomic forecasting services. This involves supervising Oxford Economics’ team of forecasters and taking a lead role in directing the outlook at a global level, while ensuring consistency between the individual country forecasts. He has a specific forecast interest in the Eurozone and German economies. Scott also takes a lead role in a number of Oxford’s consultancy projects. Recent consultancy projects that Scott has worked on include developing macroeconomic models for the governments of Azerbaijan and Egypt, analysing the economic impact of R&D spending by the aerospace sector and assessing the implications of trade liberalisation and CAP reform in the EU. After completing a degree in Philosophy, Politics and Economics at St. Edmund Hall, Oxford University and a M.Sc. in Economics at University College London, Scott joined Oxford Economic Forecasting in 1997. During his initial five years at Oxford Economic Forecasting, he worked as a country analyst for a number of European countries and participated in numerous consultancy projects for a variety of international organisations (including the World Bank, IMF and EC), governments and multi-national companies using both Oxford Economics’ Global Macromodel and building specialised economic models. Scott rejoined Oxford Economics in 2005 as a senior economist after spending two years at the Ministry of Finance in the Slovak Republic assisting to prepare the medium-term macroeconomic framework and developing the analytical capacity of the Ministry of Finance to prepare macroeconomic forecasts. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Hetal Mehta is an economist at Oxford Economics and is part of the international macroeconomic forecasting team. She is responsible for monitoring and forecasting a number of countries including Ireland, the Netherlands and Malaysia. Hetal also writes weekly briefs for the UK economy and works on a number of consultancy projects. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Hetal spent a year working for HM Treasury where she was a member of the World Forecast Branch. There she monitored economic events and conducted research relating to both the US and Latin American economies. A significant part of her work comprised of assisting in briefing for the Chancellor and senior Treasury officials. She also developed a new econometric trade forecasting model for the US, Japan and euroarea, and contributed to the Chancellor’s budget. Hetal has also worked as a policy analyst and researcher for the government department previously known as the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (now known as Communities and Local Government) for 18 months. Her work involved providing analysis and briefing to Ministers on key cross-Departmental regional issues such as the Lyons Review and Regional Funding Allocations as wells as drafting Ministerial correspondence and Parliamentary answers. She was also heavily involved in the Select Committee inquiry into regional government. Hetal read Economics at the University of Bath, where she graduated with an upper-second class degree and subsequently obtained an MSc in Economics. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Fabio Ortolani is a member of the international macroeconomic forecasting team. He is responsible for monitoring and forecasting a number of countries, mainly in Central Europe, and reports the Eurozone data for a weekly publication. Since he joined Oxford Economics as an economist in January 2009, Fabio has been involved in several projects. In particular, he has contributed to the construction and estimation of models for house prices, equilibrium exchange rates and commodity prices among others. Fabio obtained a degree in International Economics and an MSc in Econometrics from the University of Rome. He also gained an MSc in Finance and Economics from the London School of Economics in 2008. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Adam Slater is a senior economist at Oxford Economics, responsible for contributing to and helping to communicate OE's global macroeconomic view including writing for and helping edit OE's regular publications. He has a particular interest in developments in financial markets, and specific forecast interests in the the Japanese, Swedish and Danish economies. He is also involved in Oxford Economics' work on a variety of consultancy projects.
Before joining Oxford Economics, he spent more than ten years working as an economist and strategist in the City of London for Nomura, Rabobank and Calyon. During this period, he was responsible for analyzing a wide variety of economies in both the developing and the industrialised world. He also covered financial market developments, including developments in currency and bond markets, and worked directly with traders and salespeople to elaborate strategies for use internally and for dissemination to customers.
Adam gained a first class degree in Economics from the University of Bath and also holds an MPhil from Cambridge University. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Lea Tyler manages the day-to-day operations at Oxford Economics USA, the US subsidiary of Oxford Economics. In addition to her managerial role, she forecasts the US and Canadian economies. She is also responsible for the continual development of those two country models and client training and technical support in the US. Prior to joining Oxford Economics in 1990, Lea was a senior economist at The WEFA Group (now Global Insight). In her last position there, she was responsible for managing the US short-term forecast, coordinating the US forecast with industry and international forecasts, and contributing to the development of the US quarterly model. She also served as economics editor, responsible for the quality of writing and economic consistency in the company’s publications. Lea has a bachelor’s degree in mathematics from the University of Rochester and has undertaken graduate studies in economics at Temple University. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| John Walker is Chairman of Oxford Economics, which he founded in 1981. From 1973 to 1977, John worked in the UK Treasury where he became an economic adviser in the short-term forecasting division. He then worked for the consultancy arm of The Economist Newspaper, before becoming a Special Adviser to the EEC Commission in Brussels in 1980, where he was co-ordinator of the forecasts for all the EEC countries and related forecasts for the USA and Japan. John returned to the UK in 1983 to work full-time for Oxford Economic Forecasting. He has headed Oxford's move into international forecasting, developing strong links with economists around the world and co-ordinating the development of the PC versions of the Oxford models that are now widely used in the UK and the rest of the world. As well as being a much-respected commentator on global economic prospects, John leads major consultancy projects with government departments and multinational companies from Europe and the United States on issues ranging from international capital flows to developments in the Middle East economies. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Honwae is an economist in the consultancy division of Oxford Economics, working on projects for public and private sector clients. Prior to joining Oxford Economics he spent 4 years at Experian in the economic modelling team, where his work included economic impact modelling, producing UK sub-regional forecasts and bespoke forecasting. He also worked for one year at the Department for Transport in the team responsible for the department’s transport model. Honwae has an undergraduate degree in Economics from Royal Holloway, University of London and an MSC in Economics from the University of Warwick. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||