International macroeconomics
Oxford Economics provides detailed analysis and briefings on developments and prospects in the global economy. Our forecasts cover over 175 countries. But the main focus of our work is supporting our clients' investment, marketing and policy decisions by advising on the 'big issues' affecting the major economies.
Our international macro service includes:
- Forecasts for a wealth of macro indicators up to 10 years ahead
- Monthly forecast updates
- Regular outlook conferences
- Reports setting out clearly the key drivers of global economic performance
- Scenario analysis illustrating the implications of the major risks to the global economy
- Telephone and email support from our team of economists
In addition, we can provide consultancy advice on a wide range of client decisions related to the international economy, including financial markets, trade and capital flows, and energy markets.
Forecast reports
Our forecast reports provide a concise overview of the key drivers in the global economy and identify the main macroeconomic opportunities and risks for business and policy:
- Country briefings - new on-line briefings every day covering economic and politic developments and prospects in over 175 countries, linked to our forecast databank. View example briefs:
- World Economic Prospects - a quarterly report detailing the outlook for 22 major economies in detail (view sample)
- World Economic Prospects Monthly Review - timely analysis of developments and prospects in the major economies (view sample)
- Emerging Markets Economic Outlook - a quarterly review of developments and prospects for the key emerging economies (view sample)
- World Long-Term Economic Prospects - projections for the major economies over the next 10 years (view sample)
- US Weekly Brief - high frequency analysis of the latest economic news in the US (view sample)
- Eurozone Weekly Brief - high frequency analysis of the latest economic news in the Eurozone (view sample)
- Emerging Markets Weekly Brief - highlighting the latest economic news in the leading emerging economies (view sample)
- Commodity Price Monitor - a monthly report on developments and prospects in energy and other commodity markets (view sample)
Outlook conferences
Our outlook conferences are a highly effective way to keep up-to-date on the major issues facing the global economy. They provide you with the opportunity to discuss the key risks that could impact on your business with our team, and to interact with peers from a diverse range of organisations.
Our presentations provide a non-technical overview of the analysis underpinning our forecasts. And we encourage a lively debate through Q&A with our senior economists.
Issues addressed at recent events include:
- Will high oil prices destabilise the world economy?
- Will the global imbalances trigger a crisis?
- How far will US interest rates rise?
- Can Eurozone economic performance improve?
- The Chinese revaluation - what next and what impact?
Forthcoming events:
Wednesday, 17 September 2008 (Lion Court Conference Centre, London) ; Covering: International Macro; UK Macro;
World & UK Economic Outlook Briefing
Wednesday, 26 November 2008 (Lion Court Conference Centre, London) ; Covering: International Macro; Emerging Markets;
International Macro & Emerging Markets Outlook Conference
Presentations from previous conferences.
Forecast databank
Our forecast databank provides immediate access to a wealth of economic data, forecasts and analytical tools:
- Macro forecasts for over 175 countries
- Thousands of series available
- Forecasts up to 10 years ahead
- Historic data available from 1980
- View data/forecasts on-screen or download in spreadsheet format
- On-line graphics and analysis tools
Scenario analysis
Oxford Economics is uniquely placed to provide rigorous, quantitative analysis of global economic scenarios and risks. Our Global Macro Model provides the ideal framework in which we can explore issues such as:
- What would be the implications of oil prices hitting $100 pb?
- How would a revaluation of the Chinese currency affect the world economy?
- How damaging would an Avian flu epidemic be?
- Is the US housing market overvalued and what if it crashes?
- What would the implications of trade liberalisation be for the EU?
As well as advising on the implications of such risks and their likelihood, we are also able to offer tailored advice on their implications for your markets and your business.
Country coverage
Our forecasts cover over 175 countries. The information available is particularly detailed for the 45 major economies covered in our Global Macro Model, with our forecasts updated on a monthly basis.
Our forecast process
Oxford Economics' forecast process combines detailed country analysis by our experienced economists with the rigour and consistency provided by our Global Macro Model.
Our forecast process involves:
- On-going monitoring of developments by our country economists
- A series of forecast meetings at the start of each month to discuss the important news that might change our forecast and to agree forecasts for key global assumptions (eg the oil price)
- Country economists then prepare an initial forecast
- These forecasts are combined and the Oxford Global Model solved to produce a new world forecast, taking into account all of the interactions between different countries (eg through trade, exchange rates, asset prices etc)
- Country economists review the new forecasts and make modifications reflecting their interpretation of recent data and leading indicators (eg from business surveys)
- The Oxford Global Model is then solved again and there is a series of iterations towards a new global forecast
- Senior staff continually review the forecast as it evolves to ensure its consistency
- The forecast is made available to clients on the day it is completed via our website, along with an updated dataset for the Oxford Global Model
Senior International Macro Economists
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| Kiran Ahmed joined Oxford Economics as an Economist in August 2007. She is part of the industry forecasting team and her work on the International Industry Model primarily involves the metals and intermediate goods sectors. Kiran has also been involved in consultancy work including a bespoke project for Airbus, an economic and social impact study for the Corporation of London and a study for the UK Film Council investigating the economic consequences of film tax relief changes.
Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Kiran worked for three years at CRU, a major metals & mining consultancy, as an analyst in the Aluminium team. During her time there, she contributed to primary aluminium demand analysis and downstream supply & demand analysis for the team’s regular products and was the editor of one of the team’s monthly publications.
Kiran also worked on consultancy projects and contributed to the production of CRU’s macroeconomic forecasts.
Kiran was educated at Kingston University where she obtained a BA(Hons) in Economics and at Nottingham University where she obtained an MSc in Economics.
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| Pablo has been a senior economist at Oxford Economics since 2001, working as part of the macroeconomic team. He is responsible for the analysis and forecast of the Latin American economies. Pablo has also been managing a series of consultancy projects related to the tourist sector, including the development Tourism Satellite Accounts for a number of countries and regions. He is co-creator of the Oxford Latin American Economic History Database (OxLAD), a comprehensive dataset covering twenty countries in the region for the period 1900-2000. Pablo has a D.Phil. in Economics and a M.Sc. in Development Economics from the University of Oxford. He also has an undergraduate degree in System Engineering from the Universidad de los Andes, Venezuela. Before joining OEF he was research fellow at St. Antony’s College, Oxford, where he worked on issues related to developing countries. He is fluent in English and Spanish and has an intermediate level of Portuguese. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Matteo Carrozza is an Economist at Oxford Economics where he is responsible for monitoring and forecasting developments in the South African, African and OPEC economies. He is also in charge of maintaining the Oxford Economics’ global macro-econometric model for these countries. He has also worked on a macroeconomic modelling of 175 countries for Swiss Re. Matteo read Economics at the University of Edinburgh, from where he graduated with an upper-second class degree in 2003. He then obtained a DEA (Diplôme des Hautes Etudes, a two-years Master’s degree) in International Economics at the Graduate Institute of International Studies of Geneva in 2005 where he wrote a thesis on the effect of FDI on growth. In his final year he was an intern at the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNCTAD, where he analysed the effect of FDI in Nigeria. After graduating he worked for one year at the economics department of Caterpillar. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Adrian Cooper is responsible for coordinating and managing Oxford Economics’ global economic analysis, forecasting and consultancy activities, and overseeing its team of economists based in Oxford, London and Philadelphia. He has led Oxford Economics’ work on a wide array of consultancy projects, ranging from policy advice to government departments in Europe, Africa and Asia to detailed analysis of the economic impact of particular industries and investment proposals. Adrian also heads up Oxford Economics’ detailed forecasting work on the UK economy. Adrian spent the first seven years of his career with HM Treasury, England. During this time, he worked on the analysis of tax and other economic policy changes as part of the preparations for the UK Budget. He was also the coordinator of the government's macroeconomic forecast for two years. Prior to joining Oxford Economics in 1994, Adrian was UK economist for James Capel & Company, responsible for analysing and forecasting the UK economy for institutional investors, as well as briefing Capel's own traders. Adrian was educated at the University of Bristol, England, where he gained a first class degree in Economics; and at the London School of Economics and Political Science, England, where he achieved a distinction in the MSc in Economics and won the Ely Devons prize for outstanding performance in the degree examinations. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Victoria Cunningham joined Oxford Economics as an economist in October 2007. She is part of the macroeconomic team, and is responsible for monitoring and forecasting economies using Oxford Economics global model - in particular the Philippines and Thailand. She also regularly writes country briefs for developing countries, and participates in consultancy projects.
Victoria was educated at Oxford University, where she studied Philosophy, Politics and Economics; and at the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London where she obtained an MSc in Development Economics. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Victoria worked as the senior economist in the Debt Management Division of the Ministry of Finance in Guyana and as an analyst at the Bank of England.
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| Keith Edmonds is a senior economist at Oxford Economics, working as part of its international industries team, analysing global trends in the motor vehicle and high-tech sectors as well as the tourism sector, whilst also covering macroeconomic trends in Mexico and Chile. He has led Oxford Economics’ work on a wide array of consultancy projects, including the production of detailed Tourism Satellite Accounts, models for particular industries and studies of charity legacy income. He also coordinates Oxford Economics’ annual forecast for the global tourism industry which covers 175 countries. Prior to joining Oxford Economics in June 2001, Keith worked as a professional economist for fifteen years in London, mainly in City investment banks, and was deputy head of research at the Japanese bank Mizuho International (formerly the Industrial Bank of Japan) from 1994-2000 and a senior economist at NatWest Markets (from 1989-94). His primary focus was on forecasting European economic and monetary developments, in particular analysing the development of Europe’s single currency and enlargement projects. Keith was educated in 1979-82 at King’s College, Cambridge, England, where he gained an upper second class degree in Economics; and in 1982-83 at the University of Sussex, England, where he achieved an MA in Development Economics. He then spent 1983-85 working in Uganda’s Ministry of Planning and Economic Development in Kampala and has maintained an interest in Africa subsequently through several vacations there. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Sian Fenner is a Senior Economist in Oxford Economics, having joined from the Australian Federal Treasury. She is responsible for forecasting and monitoring a number of economies including Australia, South Africa and Indonesia as well as non-oil commodity prices. She is also responsible for a number of forecasting related projects, including projecting global world trade of commodities and shipping freight rates for a major shipping company; forecasting London house prices and identifying leading indicators for the property market for a major investor.
She spent the first six years of her career as an economist at the Australian Federal Treasury. Her principle roles centred around macroeconomic forecasting, building and maintaining economic models and accessing risks to the macroeconomy for a number of countries and sectors. She has published a number of articles for the Australian Treasury including: Developments in Crude Oil Markets and Recent Productivity Outcomes and Australia’s Potential Growth. She was educated at La Trobe University Australia, where she received a scholarship for her honours year and graduated with a first class honours in Economics, majoring in econometrics. She has since commenced her Masters in Economics at the Australian National University. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Dmitry Gourov joined Oxford Economics as an Economist in September 2006. He is responsible for monitoring and forecasting developments in the Eastern European economies, with a focus on Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania. He also covers Oxford Economics' forecasts and analyses on 100 small and intermediate emerging economies. Having used the Oxford Economics’ global model, he has developed the necessary skills to help forecast key variables, concerning a whole host of economies. Dmitry was educated at Tilburg University, the Netherlands, where he gained a BSc in International Economics and Finance and a MSc in Economics. He also spent a trimester studying abroad at Trinity College Dublin, Ireland as part of the Socrates exchange programme. Apart from English, Dmitry is fluent in Russian, Dutch and Byelorussian, and has a good knowledge of German. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Simon Knapp is a senior economist at Oxford Economics, responsible for monitoring and forecasting developments across the emerging market economies (Oxford Economics currently forecasts over 140 emerging economies). He is editor and co-ordinator of the Emerging Markets Outlook quarterly document and the Emerging Markets Watch monthly updates. He has also worked extensively on consultancy projects related to this area, such as assessing China’s future commodity demands and forecasting oil demand in the emerging markets. Simon joined Oxford Economics in 2001. He spent the first eleven years of his career working as an economist in the investment banking subsidiary of Barclays Bank (BZW and Barclays Capital). This period included five years working as a UK economist, responsible for analysing and forecasting the UK economy for institutional investors, as well as briefing BZW’s own traders; five years as a global economist, responsible for generating new research used by the rest of the BZW Strategy department; and eighteen months as European economist. Simon was educated at the London School of Economics, where he gained an upper second class degree in Economics and subsequently an MSc in Economics. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Andrea Lépine joined Oxford Economics as an economist in May 2007. She is part of the macroeconomic forecasting team, and is responsible for monitoring and forecasting the French, Belgian and Portuguese economies using Oxford Economics’ global model. She also regularly writes briefs for emerging countries, and participates in different consultancy projects.
Andrea graduated at the Université de Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne in France, where she obtained a Master’s degree in International and Development Economics in 2006. She also spent one year studying abroad through the CREPUQ exchange program at the Université de Montréal in Quebec, Canada. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Andrea was an intern at Euler Hermes, a credit insurance company, where she was responsible for economic forecasting for Greece, Portugal and Switzerland. Andrea is fluent in English, French and Portuguese, and has a good understanding of Spanish. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Scott Livermore oversees the day-to-day running of Oxford Economics’ international macroeconomic forecasting services. This involves supervising Oxford Economics’ team of forecasters and taking a lead role in directing the outlook at a global level, while ensuring consistency between the individual country forecasts. He has a specific forecast interest in the Eurozone and German economies. Scott also takes a lead role in a number of Oxford’s consultancy projects. Recent consultancy projects that Scott has worked on include developing macroeconomic models for the governments of Azerbaijan and Egypt, analysing the economic impact of R&D spending by the aerospace sector and assessing the implications of trade liberalisation and CAP reform in the EU. After completing a degree in Philosophy, Politics and Economics at St. Edmund Hall, Oxford University and a M.Sc. in Economics at University College London, Scott joined Oxford Economic Forecasting in 1997. During his initial five years at Oxford Economic Forecasting, he worked as a country analyst for a number of European countries and participated in numerous consultancy projects for a variety of international organisations (including the World Bank, IMF and EC), governments and multi-national companies using both Oxford Economics’ Global Macromodel and building specialised economic models. Scott rejoined Oxford Economics in 2005 as a senior economist after spending two years at the Ministry of Finance in the Slovak Republic assisting to prepare the medium-term macroeconomic framework and developing the analytical capacity of the Ministry of Finance to prepare macroeconomic forecasts. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Hetal Mehta is an economist at Oxford Economics and is part of the international macroeconomic forecasting team. She is responsible for monitoring and forecasting a number of countries including Ireland, the Netherlands and Malaysia. Hetal also writes weekly briefs for the UK economy and works on a number of consultancy projects. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Hetal spent a year working for HM Treasury where she was a member of the World Forecast Branch. There she monitored economic events and conducted research relating to both the US and Latin American economies. A significant part of her work comprised of assisting in briefing for the Chancellor and senior Treasury officials. She also developed a new econometric trade forecasting model for the US, Japan and euroarea, and contributed to the Chancellor’s budget. Hetal has also worked as a policy analyst and researcher for the government department previously known as the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (now known as Communities and Local Government) for 18 months. Her work involved providing analysis and briefing to Ministers on key cross-Departmental regional issues such as the Lyons Review and Regional Funding Allocations as wells as drafting Ministerial correspondence and Parliamentary answers. She was also heavily involved in the Select Committee inquiry into regional government. Hetal read Economics at the University of Bath, where she graduated with an upper-second class degree and subsequently obtained an MSc in Economics. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| David Oxley joined Oxford Economics as an Economist in September 2007 and is part of the macroeconomic forecasting team. He is responsible for monitoring and forecasting a number of countries using Oxford Economics’ Global Model, with a focus on Hungary, Poland and Finland. He also works on a number of consultancy projects and has assisted with model development.
David graduated from Queen Mary College, University of London with a first class honours degree in Economics, and won the Drapers Company Prize for academic achievement in his final year. He also spent one semester studying in the USA at Muhlenberg College, Pennsylvania. Following his undergraduate studies, David obtained an MSc in Economics from University College London, where he was awarded the Gaitskell Scholarship.
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| Vanessa Rossi is Director of International Economics at Oxford Economics. She has led Oxford Economics’ work on a wide array of consultancy projects, specialising in international economics and model development. Projects range from policy advice and modelling exercises for government departments and international organisations in Europe, the US and Asia to detailed economic impact studies and scenario analysis. She also heads up Oxford Economics’ analysis and forecasting work on the Chinese economy. Vanessa rejoined Oxford Economics in 1994, having previously been a research director of Swiss Bank Corporation, London (now UBS). During her previous employment with OEF in the mid-1980s, as senior economist, she was responsible for international model development, scenario analysis and forecasts. Vanessa is a frequent speaker and panellist at international conferences and workshops. Ms Rossi returned to Oxford Economics in 1994, particularly helping to develop coverage of China and the emerging market economies, banking sector and financial market analysis, energy market models and related analysis linked to consultancy projects and presentations. During her previous employment with OEF in the mid-1980s, as senior economist, she was responsible for international model development, scenario analysis and forecasting. In 1987, Mrs Rossi left OEF to join Swiss Bank Corporation London (now UBS), firstly as Chief European Economist and then as Research Director. In the early 1980s, Ms Rossi was employed as an economist with the Economics and Financials Affairs Directorate of the European Commission. Ms Rossi is co-author of a book on financial markets and she has contributed to publications on the Chinese economy, the economic impacts of Kyoto and carbon trading, assessments of SARS and related health risks and international bond market trends amongst other articles on international economics and model analysis. Vanessa has extensive experience in international economic analysis and the construction and application of econometric and financial models in the government, university and private sectors. Ms Rossi gained her first degree, with distinction, in mathematics, economics and statistics from Birmingham University (1975) followed by a Masters degree from Warwick University (1976) where she specialised in mathematical economics. She subsequently spent several years as a graduate student and research assistant at Princeton University, USA, funded by Fulbright and Princeton University scholarships. She is currently an associate fellow of Chatham House. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Adam Slater is a senior economist at Oxford Economics, responsible for contributing to and helping to communicate OE's global macroeconomic view including writing for and helping edit OE's regular publications. He has a particular interest in developments in financial markets, and specific forecast interests in the the Japanese, Swedish and Danish economies. He is also involved in Oxford Economics' work on a variety of consultancy projects.
Before joining Oxford Economics, he spent more than ten years working as an economist and strategist in the City of London for Nomura, Rabobank and Calyon. During this period, he was responsible for analyzing a wide variety of economies in both the developing and the industrialised world. He also covered financial market developments, including developments in currency and bond markets, and worked directly with traders and salespeople to elaborate strategies for use internally and for dissemination to customers.
Adam gained a first class degree in Economics from the University of Bath and also holds an MPhil from Cambridge University. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Lea Tyler manages the day-to-day operations at Oxford Economics USA, the US subsidiary of Oxford Economics. In addition to her managerial role, she forecasts the US and Canadian economies. She is also responsible for the continual development of those two country models and client training and technical support in the US. Prior to joining Oxford Economics in 1990, Lea was a senior economist at The WEFA Group (now Global Insight). In her last position there, she was responsible for managing the US short-term forecast, coordinating the US forecast with industry and international forecasts, and contributing to the development of the US quarterly model. She also served as economics editor, responsible for the quality of writing and economic consistency in the company’s publications. Lea has a bachelor’s degree in mathematics from the University of Rochester and has undertaken graduate studies in economics at Temple University. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| John Walker is Chairman of Oxford Economics, which he founded in 1981. From 1973 to 1977, John worked in the UK Treasury where he became an economic adviser in the short-term forecasting division. He then worked for the consultancy arm of The Economist Newspaper, before becoming a Special Adviser to the EEC Commission in Brussels in 1980, where he was co-ordinator of the forecasts for all the EEC countries and related forecasts for the USA and Japan. John returned to the UK in 1983 to work full-time for Oxford Economic Forecasting. He has headed Oxford's move into international forecasting, developing strong links with economists around the world and co-ordinating the development of the PC versions of the Oxford models that are now widely used in the UK and the rest of the world. As well as being a much-respected commentator on global economic prospects, John leads major consultancy projects with government departments and multinational companies from Europe and the United States on issues ranging from international capital flows to developments in the Middle East economies. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||