Global Economics
Highlights
Credit Crunch Watch:
Stress levels fell more significantly over the last week, with all components of the index contributing to the decline. Notably, the week also saw some quite significant narrowing in peripheral Eurozone country bond spreads – probably partly a reaction to the relatively benign outcome of the bank stress tests. Improved sentiment toward these countries removes one of the key factors that pushed up stress previously
30 July 2010
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Why have G7 unemployment rates diverged?
Since the onset of the recession in 2008, there has been a sharp divergence in the performance of labour markets across the G7 economies. Although one may expect that these cross-country variations in labour market performance would be related to differences in the depth of the recent recession, this is not the case. Econometric evidence suggests that the relationship between unemployment and output varies considerably between the G7 economies and through time. Our results confirm that the performance of labour markets during the recent recession has been unusual, particularly for the US and Germany. This article examines the reasons underlying these differential labour market developments and compares prospects for a cyclical recovery in employment.
22 July 2010
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Is a soft patch ahead or a renewed slump?
Concerns about a slide back into recession and possible deflation have heightened in recent weeks due to weak data releases and continued financial sector stresses. The threat of a slide into deflation looks greatest in the Eurozone where serious concerns have arisen about the health of the banking sector, but downside risks have also increased in the US and growth is moderating in Asia. A major credit event would have significant repercussion for the global economy, risking a 'double dip' scenario and pressuring central banks to step in again with increased stimulus.
16 July 2010
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Country Economic Forecasts
These concise reports provide regular analysis and forecasts on economic conditions and policy developments in 190 countries. They include downloadable spreadsheets covering 10-year forecasts and 20 years of historical data for key economic indicators.
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