| 22 July 2010 | Why have G7 unemployment rates diverged? | Since the onset of the recession in 2008, there has been a sharp divergence in the performance of labour markets across the G7 economies. Although one may expect that these cross-country variations in labour market performance would be related to differences in the depth of the recent recession, this is not the case. Econometric evidence suggests that the relationship between unemployment and output varies considerably between the G7 economies and through time. Our results confirm that the performance of labour markets during the recent recession has been unusual, particularly for the US and Germany. This article examines the reasons underlying these differential labour market developments and compares prospects for a cyclical recovery in employment. |
| 5 July 2010 | China – labour becomes more demanding | Recent weeks have seen a rise in labour unrest in China with the outbreak of a series of seemingly connected strikes. With rising CPI inflation, wage demands are increasing. This could mark the beginning of a shift towards the greater bargaining power of labour. In turn, this could help to rebalance the economy towards greater consumption as a share of GDP, as the dependence on exports becomes a less viable high-growth strategy for the long term in the wake of subdued global demand. |
| 7 June 2010 | Oil price outlook to 2030 | Over the next few year, oil demand will still be largely driven by the pace of the world economic recovery but with other factors beginning to play an increasingly important role, including efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the growing importance of gas and increasing use of alternative energy sources such as nuclear and biofuels. Meanwhile, new oil resources are expected to be in more remote and less accessible areas, thereby involving greater exploitation and transportation costs and longer lead times. The medium-term supply and demand trends are expected to result in world oil prices rising by about 2.5% pa in real terms over the period to 2020. In the longer term the pace of demand growth is expected to ease and, as a result, so will the rate of increase in oil prices. |
| 11 May 2010 | What now for the ‘peripheral’ Eurozone countries? | Over the weekend the EU put together a large-scale package worth up to €720 billion aimed at stabilising all the ‘peripheral’ Eurozone countries, in the face of mounting contagion risks. This came on top of an earlier financial support package for Greece worth €110 billion. The latest move has brought some relief to bond markets, but major challenges remain. Investors remain concerned about the capacity of Greece to stick to the immense fiscal adjustment needed in the face of a very deep recession and mounting social unrest. With the debt/GDP ratio set to keep rising to almost 150% in the next few years, concerns remain that some kind of debt restructuring or default cannot be avoided. For the other peripherals, too, the outlook remains bleak – while the immediate threat of a collapse in their debt markets has been averted, years of fiscal austerity and slow growth remain ahead. |
| 26 March 2010 | Is Greece heading for default? | Greece has slid into a serious fiscal crisis over the last few months. A ballooning budget deficit and high levels of government debt have raised questions in the minds of investors about the sustainability of the country’s public finances. The spread between Greek bond yields and those in Germany has risen to the highest level in more than a decade. As well as fiscal problems, Greece also suffers from weak external competitiveness, and now faces a series of policy choices all of which look unpalatable. Attempting to 'tough it out' with a sharp fiscal adjustment and deflation of wages could deepen the recession still further and founder in the face of social tensions. The 'nuclear option' of default and devaluation could tackle external adjustment but would cause immense financial disruption and negative contagion effects on the Eurozone and the rest of the world. Against this background, pressure for a bailout has been rising but so far the other EU countries have stopped short of announcing explicit financial support for Greece. The key risk period could be April-May, when a large volume of Greek debt matures. |
| 22 February 2010 | Is the recovery sustainable in the US and Europe? | Following the worst recession since the 1930s, the US, UK and Eurozone economies have all now returned to positive growth. With the boost from policy stimulus and the inventory cycle peaking, however, this raises questions about the sustainability of the current rebound. The key features of the adjustments underway in these economies suggests that there will be a wide divergence in the pace of expansion over the coming two years, reflecting differences in the structural problems to be addressed and national policy responses in the wake of the crisis. While the recoveries in both the US and Europe will be relatively muted compared to recent historical experience, the US is likely to be the growth leader, reflecting the more dynamic nature of its economy and financial sector. |
| 22 December 2009 | Monetary policy to remain loose to support recovery | The global economic recovery has broadened out over the last few months and there has also been a marked turnaround in the health of the global banking sector. Against this background, there has been growing interest in when and how central banks will reverse their current highly accommodative policies. In our view, central banks are likely to be cautious about embarking on exit strategies given patchy economic growth, unfavourable monetary conditions and the risk of causing a sharp rise in borrowing costs. We see large-scale moves toward unwinding monetary stimulus as likely to be delayed until late next year - and possibly beyond. |
| 21 December 2009 | SWFs on the rise again in 2010 | SWFs have been hit hard over the past 18 months by the global financial crisis and subsequent recession. But with the recovery now under way and the emerging markets continuing to outpace the developed countries, SWFs are likely to display renewed vigour in 2010-11 as the leading emergers and oil producers post larger surpluses and again rapidly accumulate assets. SWFs have also learnt from the experience of the downturn and are acquiring sector expertise to position themselves for the global upturn and, over time, will alter investment strategy in line with the underlying shift in economic power from the developed to the emerging economies. |
| 26 October 2009 | Are global capital flows on the rebound? | Global capital flows dropped steeply in the wake of the financial crisis, with significant repercussions for real economy developments and a big impact on exchange rates. These effects now seem to be unwinding, with a strong rebound in capital flows over recent months. For some countries, inflows have returned to near pre-crisis levels and this should improve the chances of a solid economic recovery. The normalisation of capital flows has also been associated with a weaker dollar as 'safe haven' flows have reversed and dollar-based carry trades have resumed. But with rates low across the major economies, and likely to rise faster in the US than elsewhere, the dollar's role as a 'funding currency' may not last. On the bond market side, flows into US treasuries have remained quite strong, but are unlikely to be strong enough to prevent US bond yields rising steeply by 2011-2012. |
| 24 September 2009 | Leaders and laggards, on the way down and up | As the world economy seems to have reached its trough, we look back at how the crisis has unfolded. One striking feature has been how quickly the downturn has spread across countries. As a result the most affected countries turned out not to be the ones most exposed to finance and housing but rather the ones most exposed to the world trade. Looking forward, the recovery is expected to be sluggish and bumpy in most places but slower in some countries than others. We forecast the recovery to be most drawn out in Italy, Japan and Germany as these countries are hit by weak demand for investment goods and are characterised by relatively low potential growth. |
| 1 September 2009 | Can India catch up with China? | Although both the emerging market giants, China and India, are currently experiencing slower growth as a result of the global financial crisis and subsequent deep world recession, it is hoped that together they can help lead the world recovery. China’s economic growth has outpaced that of India since the 1970s and many expect this differential to persist over the medium term. But with the world economy probably facing a period of slower growth and lower trade flows than in recent years, this article revisits the long-term growth prospects of both countries and asks whether India can begin to catch up with China in the race to challenge the US as the world’s leading economic power. |
| 1 August 2009 | Valuing the effects of Great Barrier Reef bleaching | A study of the economic value of Australia's Great Barrier Reef and the cost of coral bleaching for the Great Barrier Reef Foundation |
| 25 June 2009 | Why are US home foreclosures so high? | US mortgage foreclosures have risen to extraordinary heights in recent months, with the scale of the distress in the US mortgage market much greater than in the UK. Key factors behind this divergent performance include laxer underwriting standards in the US and the widespread existence of 'non-recourse’ loans. The latter allow borrowers in negative equity to walk away from their mortgage debt and sap the incentive to remain current on ‘underwater’ loans. As a result, steep house price falls can generate a sharp rise in foreclosures even without high interest rates or unemployment. In the UK, by contrast, there are strong incentives for home owners to remain in their properties, even when in negative equity. |
| 22 June 2009 | Could swine flu tip the world into deflation? | Health experts agree that, while the current flu epidemic that started in Mexico in April 2009 may weaken during the summer, it could re-appear in the autumn, possibly in a stronger form. Using historical benchmarks of previous flu pandemics and of the SARS episode, we estimate the economic impact of a global flu pandemic. We estimate that world GDP would be cut by around US$2.5trillion in the six months of the pandemic or 3.5% of 2009 GDP. That a pandemic is likely to hit the world economy just as it starts to recover from recession could result in the economic impact being larger than would otherwise have been the case, and this could tip the global economy into deflation. |
| 1 May 2009 | Slump in wealth to hinder global recovery prospects? | Since the credit crunch began in Q3 2007, there has been a dramatic slump in the prices of many financial assets. Global equity prices have dropped some 40-50% from their peaks in the major economies and by as much as 70% in some emerging markets. This has led to a very substantial drop in global financial wealth. Oxford Economics estimates than total financial wealth has fallen some US$28 trillion, or 14% from its peak. But developments in financial wealth only represent part of the story, as households also hold significant non-financial assets, mostly in the form of housing. A significant concern for the medium term is that house price cycles tend to last much longer than those in financial assets, weighing on consumer spending for a number of years. |
| 24 April 2009 | Assessing the slowdown in China | Growth in China has slowed dramatically over the past year from a blistering pace of over 13% in 2007 to just 6.1% in 2009 Q1. A turning in the domestic investment cycle has been coupled with a dramatic slowdown in external demand. Despite an unprecedented fiscal package, in the near term we expect growth to dip below 6% but it should begin to recover strongly towards the end of this year as the fiscal stimulus comes on stream, rising to 10% by end-2010. Nevertheless, more fundamental downside risks remain if rising unemployment leads to social instability or if an increase in loss-making investments uncovers weakness in the banking sector. By looking at what has driven the recent slowdown and how this compares with previous downturns, we can shed light on China’s prospects going forward and the major risks. |
| 25 March 2009 | How far away is a global recovery? | There is now little doubt that the global economy is set for its worst year since the end of WWII, with world GDP forecast to fall more than 2% in 2009. Significant uncertainties nevertheless remain about how deep and protracted the recession will be. Weakness in house and equity prices could drag on for some time, unemployment is rising fast, and the financial sector remains in a dysfunctional state. The process of corporate and household retrenchment already under way is likely to continue for some time. Taylor rule analysis suggests short-term interest rates need to be negative, supporting the shift toward 'quantitative easing' now under way. Eventually this and other stimuli will produce a strong recovery - but not until 2011. |
| 20 March 2009 | Financial Crisis Puts Strains on Eurozone Unity | With the Eurozone having slid rapidly into recession and some member countries severely hit by the impact of the credit crunch, there are mounting concerns about a possible debt default by one or more member states, which in turn might threaten the existence of the Eurozone. This article examines the current economic strains within the Euro area and considers whether these factors, which might deter some EU members from joining, could ultimately lead to a breakdown in the euro. |
| 1 March 2009 | The economic contribution of ports to the UK economy | •A study on the economic impact of ports for British Ports Association (BPA) and United Kingdom Major Ports Group Limited (UKMPG). |
| 11 February 2009 | Economic Linkages between the UK and the rest of the EU | Oxford Economics has undertaken a study detailing the economic ties between the UK and the rest of the EU, and where possible, quantifying them according to a number of parameters, such as trade, labour force, tourism, FDI, portfolio investments and banking. |
| 6 February 2009 | US Deflation? New Methods of Forecasting Consumer Prices | Inflation has fallen sharply in recent months and deflation seems to be threatening the world economy. In this article, Janine Aron and John Muellbauer discuss new research on inflation forecasting, which achieves better results, especially at predicting turning points. Their evidence suggests that while annual US consumer price inflation will soon be negative, the risks of serious deflation are low. Core inflation is quite unlikely to drift into negative territory. |
| 2 January 2009 | Global imbalances – forgotten but not gone | Concerns about large global imbalances have been superseded over the past 18 months by the financial crisis, the subsequent dramatic shifts in the global economy and mounting fears of deflation. But the massive monetary and fiscal stimulus now being seen in some countries means that the international debate about imbalances is likely to resume once the recovery gets under way. Surplus countries such as China and the oil-producing countries – as well as Germany and Japan – will need to do more to boost domestic demand and address exchange rate concerns if the process of globalisation is to continue and moves towards protectionism are to be avoided. |
| 2 January 2009 | Financial crisis update | Government intervention in the form of bank bailouts and rescue packages in many countries appears to have brought some stability to the financial system. However, the financial crisis has impacted on the real economy more severely than expected. With the global economy and world trade set to contract in 2009, making it the worst year since 1945, and deflation threatening, how are the authorities responding and what is the growth and inflation outlook for the leading economies? |
| 22 December 2008 | Does recession threaten to become deflation? | The global downturn is set to be much more severe than seemed likely at the end of Q3, with output, orders and exports having dropped sharply in recent weeks. Consumption continues to weaken, but plunging investment demand is rapidly taking over as the key factor dragging down the global economy. A dramatic worsening of the jobs picture is also under way, and a rapid slowdown in world trade is helping to spread the downturn to previously fast growing emerging markets. GDP is set to fall by around 2% in the major economies in 2009, and as short-term interest rates fall towards zero, policymakers are increasingly exploring alternative policy approaches to fight the recession and the risk of deflation. |
| 23 October 2008 | The implications of the financial crisis for global growth | Recent weeks have seen the most serious wave of financial turmoil since the credit crunch began. The extent of the distress in financial markets prompted policymakers to propose dramatic action to shore up the global banking system including direct recapitalisation of banks and state guarantees for interbank lending. The fluidity of the situation has also significantly increased the risks around forecasts. Our current forecast suggests growth will be around zero in the US, UK and Eurozone next year, with a recovery in 2010. In an alternative downside scenario where the financial sector takes longer to recover and asset prices fall more steeply, the major economies could face the deepest recession since the early 1980s. We consider this alternative only slightly less likely than our central forecast. |
| 1 October 2008 | After Paulson – where next for global growth? | September saw the most serious wave of financial turmoil since the credit crunch began in the summer of 2007, threatening to intensify the downturn in the real economy. The extent of the distress in financial markets has prompted the US Treasury to propose a massive bailout plan, but the plan has run into political opposition. Even if a plan is passed, growth in the major economies looks set to weaken further than we previously expected in 2009 and recover more slowly in 2010. Without a bailout plan, central banks may be forced to cut rates to very low levels to absorb the impact of debt deflation, and the major economies could face the deepest recession since the early 1980s. |
| 18 September 2008 | Financial sector turmoil points to downside growth risks | September has seen the most serious wave of
financial turmoil since the credit crunch began in the
summer of 2007. In the month to date, the US
authorities have moved to take over mortgage giants
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to prevent their
collapse and have also been also obliged to
effectively nationalise giant insurer AIG. There has
also been the actual collapse of Lehman Brothers –
the fourth biggest investment bank in the US – and
the hasty sale of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America. |
| 11 September 2008 | Will the bailout of Freddie & Fannie halt the slide towards recession? | The US government has tried to bring stability to its mortgage market with a massive bailout and effective nationalisation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Another positive factor for the global economy is growing signs that inflation may be peaking in both the major economies and emerging markets. This opens up a window for rate cuts in the UK and Eurozone in 2009, and a longer period of low rates in the US. But the relief from mounting inflationary pressures cannot come too soon, as consumer retrenchment seems to be gathering pace and the corporate sector is stepping up job cuts. The US, Eurozone and UK are set to remain weak over the coming quarters and the slowdown is likely to increasingly impact on countries in Asia and central Europe reliant on net exports. |
| 21 July 2008 | Will capacity problems keep commodity prices high? | Although global demand for oil and minerals has been strong in recent years, driven by buoyant emerging markets such as China and India, supply constraints have become an increasingly important factor behind the rise in oil prices to record levels of almost US$150 pb. And it is the lack of supply response, in contrast to previous periods of high prices, that has caught the markets by surprise. So while world growth is slowing in response to the credit crunch and surging oil prices, commodity prices appear set to remain high for some time. |
| 20 July 2008 | The outlook for world food prices | World food prices have surged some 80% since the beginning of 2006. This rise has been due to a ‘nexus’ of demand and supply side factors including the weaker dollar, higher oil prices, climatic conditions, and fast growth and a changing diet in emerging markets. Most significant of all has been the huge expansion of demand for crop products for use in making biofuels. Currency effects and the impact of supply shocks should fade, but many of the demand-side factors look likely to be more long-lasting. Sustained high prices could open the door for significant reforms in farm policy, but in the near-term the most effective way of easing market conditions would be via a rethink of biofuels policy. |
| 30 June 2008 | A prolonged period of below-trend growth now seems unavoidable | The global growth outlook has deteriorated in recent weeks. A critical element in this changed outlook has been developments in commodity prices, both oil and food prices. The sharp rise in these prices represents a further ‘tax’ on household spending, which is already weakening in much of the industrialised world. And in the emerging markets, where food prices in particular make up a much larger share of the consumer basket, the scale of the threat to consumer purchasing power is even higher. On the back of rising commodity prices, our inflation forecasts for the major economies have also risen notably in recent months, and rising inflation expectations have sharply reduced the scope for central banks to react to slower growth by cutting rates. With consumer spending also under pressure from weaker asset prices and the threat of rising unemployment, the global slowdown is likely to be more prolonged than we thought likely a few months ago. |
| 30 January 2008 | The economic significance of Sovereign Wealth Funds | Although sovereign wealth funds currently account for less than 2% of the US$165 trillion global total of traded securities, their importance may climb sharply in the next few years. With leading emerging markets such as China, Russia and some Middle East countries continuing to outgrow the developed economies and investing increasing amounts of their surpluses in the west, concerns about the power and investment strategies of these sovereign funds will mount. Coupled with the ongoing shift of manufacturing and financial sector jobs away from the west, this could trigger rising trade tensions and protectionism. But any move to restrict these investment flows, which represent a partial return to state capitalism after decades of privatisation in the west, would appear to defy economic logic, especially as the capital injections into western banks seen recently could help to stave off the impact of the credit crunch. |
| 20 December 2007 | Credit crunch weighs on growth and threatens more severe damage | As 2007 draws to a close, financial markets remain volatile and the impact of the credit crunch is increasingly being felt. High levels of interbank rates have had a knock-on effect on lending rates to households and firms, and credit standards have also been tightened by banks, posing a risk to investment and consumption going forward.This has prompted further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, and cuts by the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada. Central banks have also added further large volumes of liquidity to interbank markets. Asset prices remain under pressure, with weaker house prices posing a particular risk to global growth, but emerging markets continue to show few signs of a growth impact from the recent financial market turmoil. A plausible downside scenario for global growth in 2008-2009 would see significantly below trend growth across the major industrial countries. Over the last month, the odds on this scenario materialising, rather than the baseline, have risen. |
| 5 November 2007 | How hard will the credit crunch hit the economy? | Financial markets have been in turmoil over the summer, as fear of default risk in the US subprime mortgage market has spilled over. Investor fears have been exacerbated by uncertainty about the scale and distribution of losses associated with subprime exposures. The concern is that if the pressure on banks persists, their next step will be to cut back on lending to the household and corporate sectors, creating a ‘credit crunch’. A full-blown credit crunch would have a significant negative impact on growth in the major economies relative to our baseline forecasts. Such an outcome seems some way off at present, but the scale of the downside risk does appear to be having an impact on central bank thinking, and further monetary policy action may well prove necessary to head off growth risks. |
| 11 October 2007 | High commodity prices are here to stay | World commodity prices have risen strongly in the last few years, driven primarily by the surge in oil prices to record highs but with prices of metals and industrial materials also climbing steeply and food prices setting new record highs. Although there have been some supply issues that have played a part in this price surge, a key driver has been the strength of global demand, with rapidly-growing economies such as China and India accounting for a large chunk of the increase in demand in recent years - in particular for energy and metals. Oil prices have recently approached US$80 pb and it seems increasingly likely that high commodity prices are here to stay |
| 16 August 2007 | Food price inflation – a worry for the Emergers? | Emerging Markets Economic Outlook, Summer 2007 |
| 23 July 2007 | Where is the risk in global financial markets? | The positive global macroeconomic picture of recent years has led to rapid growth in the supply of and demand for risky assets, at prices which have offered little insurance against even a moderate worsening in financial market conditions. LBO market activity has exceeded its 1980s peak, and a surge in issuance of low-grade corporate debt has increased the risk of a sharp rise in default rates. Problems in the US subprime mortgage market, which could spark a broader sell-off in the structured products sector, pose a threat to the wider economy. The exposed markets have been key drivers of the rapid recent growth of financial sector activity in the US and the UK. Given the importance of the financial sector in the US and the UK, a downturn in these risky markets could have a significant impact on growth. |
| 22 June 2007 | Are current low risk spreads sustainable? | The recent signs of more widespread inflation, rising short-term interest rates and higher bond yields are raising doubts about whether the surge in credit growth seen in recent years is starting to go into reverse. Monetary conditions are clearly getting tighter in most leading economies, and the big question mark is whether recent falls in bond and equity markets are a temporary correction in a still-favourable financial market backdrop or whether it marks the start of a major reversal of the decline seen in credit spreads over the last five years. Emerging markets have been particularly favoured in recent years and emerging market assets may also be vulnerable to a shift in investor sentiment to greater risk aversion. But a consequence of improved fundamentals is that there is less risk of contagion, meaning that a generalised emerging market slump and a wholesale widening of risk spreads is much less likely than in the past. |
| 16 April 2007 | The global outlook for M&A activity | World Economic Prospects, Spring 2007 |
| 14 February 2007 | 2006- a buoyant year for FDI flows | Emerging Markets Economic Outlook, Winter 2006/07 |
| 21 December 2006 | How long will the Eurozone upswing last? | World Economic Prospects, Winter 2006/07 |
| 10 October 2006 | Rising oil prices and their impact on the emergers | Emerging Markets Economic Outlook, Summer 2006 |
| 10 October 2006 | Would a slump in US house prices derail the global economy? | World Economic Prospects, Autumn 2006 |
| 9 August 2006 | India: A Five-Year Outlook (2006 Update) | Joint study on India with Oxford Analytica |
| 19 July 2006 | Rising oil prices and their impact on the emergers | Emerging Markets Economic Outlook, Summer 2006 |
| 26 June 2006 | Where are oil prices heading? | World Economic Prospects, Summer 2006 |
| 16 June 2006 | UK & Emerging Markets Outlook Conference, London Thursday 15th June 2006: | Presentations available to download here |
| 26 April 2006 | Capital flows and the emergers in 2005 | Emerging Markets Economic Outlook, Spring 2006 |
| 19 January 2006 | Brazil & Turkey: How much have their fiscal positions improved? | Emerging Markets Economic Outlook, Winter 2005/2006 |
| 19 January 2006 | Brazil & Turkey- how much have their fiscal positions improved? | Emerging Markets Economic Outlook, Winter 2005/06 |
| 19 January 2006 | China: Assessment of the GDP revisions and their implications for current forecasts | Emerging Markets Economic Outlook, Winter 2005/2006 |
| 9 January 2006 | Brazil: A Five Year Outlook | Joint study on Brazil with Oxford Analytica |
| 19 December 2005 | Trade liberalisation and CAP reform in the EU | World Economic Prospects, Winter 2005 |
| 19 December 2005 | Trade liberalisation and CAP reform in the EU | Special feature article from the Winter 2005/06 World Economic Prospects |
| 24 October 2005 | OEF commentary on Avian Flu | |
| 21 October 2005 | Trade liberalisation and CAP reform in the EU: | A report by OEF for Open Europe |
| 19 October 2005 | Investment trends in the emergers & the US current account deficit | Emerging Markets Economic Outlook, Autumn 2005 |
| 18 October 2005 | Investment trends in the emergers and the US current account deficit | Emerging Markets Economic Outlook, Autumn 2005 |
| 23 September 2005 | The economic and social benefits of air transport: | A special report by OEF for ATAG |
| 21 September 2005 | Focus on Emerging Markets: | A series of workshops and briefings on Emerging Markets in partnership with Chatham House |
| 20 September 2005 | The Economic Contribution of the UK Film Industry: | A special report by OEF for the UK Film Council and Pinewood Shepperton plc |
| 18 July 2005 | Can domestic demand sustain GDP growth in the emerging market economies? | Emerging markets Economic Outlook, Summer 2005 |
| 29 June 2005 | The economic impact of express carriers in Europe | A special report by OEF for the European Express Association |
| 29 June 2005 | Does Italy’s plight threaten European Monetary Union ? | World Economic Prospects, Summer 2005 |
| 22 June 2005 | China : A Five-Year Outlook | Joint study on China with Oxford Analytica |
| 20 May 2005 | OEF China Briefing Note, May 2005: | China raises tax on garment exports-but this is unlikely to appease US and EU |
| 20 April 2005 | The European Union at 25: A Five-Year Outlook | A comprehensive examination of the key drivers and risks across European economies and business sectors |
| 19 April 2005 | What are the chances of a current account crisis in the Emerging Markets? | Emerging Markets Economic Outlook, Spring 2005 |
| 12 April 2005 | The Chinese Economy: Risky Reporting | A Briefing paper by OEF for the Chatham House International Economics Programme |
| 22 February 2005 | Indonesia : A Five-Year Outlook | Joint study on Indonesia with Oxford Analytica |
| 21 January 2005 | Latin Americas current account turnaround | Emerging Markets Economic Outlook, Jan 2005 |
| 23 December 2004 | The falling dollar- a step towards global rebalancing? | World Economic Prospects, Winter 2004/05 |
| 23 December 2004 | Fiscal Policy in the Eurozone: Stimulus or Consolidation? | Feature article by Chris Allsopp |
| 1 October 2004 | Key Issues for Emerging Markets: | Setting out the main risks for Asia, Eastern Europe, Latin America and Africa that we will be monitoring in coming months |
| 24 September 2004 | Would a sharp slowdown in China derail the global economy? | World Economic Prospects, Autumn 2004 |
| 19 July 2004 | Is the Chinese slowdown on track? | Emerging markets Economic Outlook, Summer 2004 |
| 28 June 2004 | Just how strong is global growth? | World Economic Prospects, Summer 2004 |
| 17 June 2004 | Erik Britton's presentation to the Manufacturing Excellence Conference, 17th June 2004: | Available to download |
| 24 May 2004 | Erik Britton's presentation to AMT Spring Business Conference, 20th May 2004: | Presentation available to download |
| 24 May 2004 | Erik Britton's presentation to CASG meeting, 20th May 2004: | Presentation available to download |
| 23 April 2004 | The impact of EU accession on Central and Eastern European Economies: | Presentation by Adrian Cooper to Air Cargo Economics Conference, Prague, 22 April, available to download |
| 22 April 2004 | Emerging Asia ex. China: Looking to domestic demand rather than net trade | Emerging Markets Economic Outlook April 2004 |
| 26 March 2004 | Enlargement approaches - how big a boost for the EU? | World Economic Prospects, Spring 2004 |
| 21 October 2003 | Explaining the wide variation in Asian export growth this year | Emerging Markets Economic Outlook, October 2003 |
| 8 October 2003 | Assessing the impact and cost of SARS across the Asian economies: | We put the cost of SARS for Asia at $20bn in lost GDP and as much as $60bn in terms of lost business revenues. This special report presents the findings of an OEF study commissioned by the ADB. |
| 26 August 2003 | Will oil prices fall sharply in 2004? | World Economic Prospects, Autumn 2003 |
| 9 July 2003 | EUREN report, | July 2003: A joint forecast for the European economy with five leading European Institutes, including analysis of a possible credit crunch in Germany and the rise of the Euro. |
| 26 June 2003 | The US trade deficit: Will a weak dollar help? | World Economic Prospects, Summer 2003 |
| 26 June 2003 | Is the World economy set for recovery? | World Economic Prospects, Summer 2003 |
| 24 April 2003 | Constraining the US trade deficit: issues for the emerging markets | |
| 24 March 2003 | War and the global economy | World Economic Prospects, Spring 2003 |
| 24 March 2003 | US federal budget: deficits as far as the eye can see? | World Economic Prospects, Spring 2003 |
| 20 January 2003 | Assessing the economic cycle in major emerging markets | Emerging Markets Economic Outlook, Winter 2002/03 |
| 20 January 2003 | China displaces Japan in Asian imports league | Emerging Markets Economic Outlook, Winter 2002/03 |
| 16 December 2002 | China displaces Japan in Asian imports league | World Economic Prospects, Winter 2002 |
| 16 December 2002 | Growth to falter in 2003 | World Economic Prospects, Winter 2002 |
| 28 October 2002 | The economic impact of military action against Iraq: | How would a new Gulf War affect the world economy? |
| 21 October 2002 | Brazil on the edge | Emerging Markets Economic Outlook, Autumn 2002 |
| 24 September 2002 | Germany - the next Japan? | World Economic Prospects, Autumn 2002 |
| 24 September 2002 | Do weak share prices threaten the global economy? | World Economic Prospects, Autumn 2002 |
| 22 July 2002 | Brazil: Walking the tightrope | Emerging Markets Economic Outlook, Summer 2002 |
| 27 June 2002 | Has the global recovery run out of steam? | World Economic Prospects, Summer 2002 |
| 27 June 2002 | What are the implications of a weaker dollar? | World Economic Prospects, Summer 2002 |
| 22 April 2002 | Asia recovery in 2002 | Emerging Markets Economic Outlook, Spring 2002 |
| 25 March 2002 | FDI - down but not out | World Economic Prospects, Spring 2002 |
| 25 March 2002 | How strong a global recovery? | World Economic Prospects, Spring 2002 |
| 16 January 2002 | Prospects for the World Economy: | Presentation by John Walker to the Society of Business Economists |
| 16 January 2002 | Argentina's New Economic Policy: | What are the prospects following the debt default and devaluation? |
| 17 December 2001 | The contribution of the ICT sector to the cycle | World Economic Prospects, Winter 2001 |
| 14 December 2001 | What is happening to Germany? | World Economic Prospects, Winter 2001 |
| 14 December 2001 | Japan - Is there any way out? | World Economic Prospects, Winter 2001 |
| 22 October 2001 | A sharp synchronised cycle | World Economic Prospects, Autumn 2001 |
| 19 October 2001 | US and Eurozone productivity | World Economic Prospects, Autumn 2001 |
| 12 September 2001 | The economic impact of 11 September | Special report by OEF |
| 28 June 2001 | Global risks | World Economic Prospects, Summer 2001 |
| 15 June 2001 | Malaysia: | Currency risks highlighted. |
| 15 June 2001 | Korea: | Risks of rising unemployment and weaker world trade. |
| 15 June 2001 | Argentina: | Could a new peg help? |
| 15 June 2001 | OEF Scenario: | Half way to another Asian crisis? |
| 15 June 2001 | Philippines: | An investment slump? |
| 15 June 2001 | Indonesia: | Oil and debt risks. |
| 30 March 2001 | The UK Budget | World Economic Prospects, Spring 2001 |
| 28 March 2001 | Goldilocks: What happens when the bears get home? | World Economic Prospects, Spring 2001 |
| 28 March 2001 | Who is hit hardest by equity price falls? | World Economic Prospects, Spring 2001 |
| 28 March 2001 | Threats from Japan and Asia: deflation and debts? | World Economic Prospects, Spring 2001 |
| 1 January 2001 | Turkey: | 2001 recession likely but risk assessments point to upside as well as downside potential. |
| 1 January 2001 | The OEF Emerging Market Models | null |
| 18 December 2000 | Would a US recession derail the World economy? | World Economic Prospects, Winter 2000/01 |
| 18 December 2000 | The impact of the rise in oil prices on the World economy | World Economic Prospects, Winter 2000/01 |
| 18 December 2000 | The $/€ exchange rate: Lessons from history? | World Economic Prospects, Winter 2000/01 |
| 22 September 2000 | How serious are US financial imbalances? | World Economic Prospects, Autumn 2000 |
| 26 June 2000 | Where now for Latin America? | World Economic Prospects, Summer 2000 |
| 26 June 2000 | The impact of the new economy | World Economic Prospects, Summer 2000 |
| 22 March 2000 | How rapidly is Europe changing? | World Economic Prospects, Spring 2000 |
| 15 December 1999 | Can the US continue to power the US economy? | World Economic Prospects, Winter 1999/00 |
| 20 July 1999 | Asian export growth and currency appreciation: further to go yet? | Emerging Markets Economic Outlook, Summer 1999 |
| 2 July 1999 | Financial imbalances still a threat | World Economic Prospects, Summer 1999 |
