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International Macroeconomics

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefings Archive

3 September 2010Slower growth in prospect but downside risks limited in the absence of a major global shock
27 August 2010Latin America – mixed picture on interest rates and growth in the short term
20 August 2010Emerging EU economies – robust industry in Q2 but GDP more variable and outlook is also mixed
13 August 2010Further signs of moderating growth in many economies but outlook should remain solid provided major developed economies avoid “double-dip”
6 August 2010China: Manufacturing slows but robust consumption drives a shift towards the service sector
30 July 2010Monetary tightening to continue in Brazil despite Q2 “soft patch” of activity and inflation data
23 July 2010More emergers now starting to tighten monetary policy – but the pace and necessity of adjustment varies widely
16 July 2010After a very strong Q1 in East Asia and Brazil, growth is now moderating but the outlook still looks solid
9 July 2010It’s not been all bad news – upward revisions to 2010 growth forecasts in the emergers during H1
2 July 2010China – labour becomes more demanding
25 June 2010Danger of overheating likely to lead to 12% interest rates in Brazil by end-year
18 June 2010Middle East economic outlook – prospects still relatively upbeat despite some headwinds
11 June 2010Some signs of moderating growth in East Asia after very strong Q1. Emerging Europe continues to lag
4 June 2010CEE economies – recovery remains modest
24 May 2010Surging growth and rising inflation trend point to another sizeable rate hike in Brazil in June
17 May 2010Strong recovery in ASEAN continued in Q1
10 May 2010Robust domestic-led growth continues in China, Brazil & India – prompting higher rates. Elsewhere the need for tighter policy is less pressing
4 May 2010Deteriorating trade positions in China, India & other Asia offset by soaring surpluses in Russia & OPEC
26 April 2010Surging domestic demand and above target inflation to trigger first hike in Brazilian interest rates
19 April 2010China lurches into trade deficit in March
12 April 2010China and India take a bigger share of FDI to the emergers in 2009
6 April 2010Pressure on China, India and Brazil to tighten monetary policy but rates are still edging lower in parts of the CEE
29 March 2010Tighter monetary policy looming in Brazil, given rising inflation and buoyant growth. Getting close to deal on Argentina’s debt
22 March 2010Middle East economic outlook – region set to perform relatively strongly in 2010
15 March 2010A tale of two recoveries – buoyant Asia, sluggish CEE
8 March 2010Uncertainty about China rises but regional recovery to persist. Struggling CEE remains the weakest area
1 March 2010Latin America – edging back towards normality
22 February 2010Very wide variation in the pace of industrial recoveries – Asia leading, Emerging Europe far behind and Latin America in-between
15 February 2010Greece to follow many emerging EU economies along the hard path of fiscal adjustment
8 February 2010Strong end to 2009 in Asia, but risks to outlook if China’s exit from huge stimulus is not deftly handled. Signs of recovery broadening out in several key economies
1 February 2010Strong recovery in Brazil prompting speculation about first interest rate rise; signs that Mexico’s recovery is becoming more broadly based
25 January 2010Russia still lagging behind the other BRICS; Poland’s outperformance of the rest of the CEE continues, while Hungary is still stuck in recession
18 January 2010India – robust long-term growth prospects provided that large budget deficit is reduced and the benefits of growth are more widely shared across society
11 January 2010Buoyant Asian growth continues, solid Brazil, mixed picture elsewhere but trade starting to pick up
21 December 2009Middle East outlook – robust growth expected in 2010, notwithstanding impact of Dubai
14 December 2009Strong domestic demand growth in Q3 in China, India & Brazil – and outlook remains positive
7 December 2009The Dubai crisis – implications for the UAE, the Gulf and the emerging markets
30 November 2009Brazil continues to be centre stage…
23 November 2009What are the main risks to the recoveries in emerging East Asia?
16 November 2009Budget deficits – signs of stabilisation in most emergers but South Africa’s position has worsened significantly
9 November 2009Asia continued to recover strongly in Q3 but elsewhere performance was much less uniform
2 November 2009Some emergers are now considering the start of their “exit strategies” from loose monetary policy
26 October 2009Latin America – heavy capital inflows reflect Brazil’s growing influence in the world economy
19 October 2009Resumption of heavy capital flows to the emergers puts upward pressure on exchange rates
12 October 2009A strong start to the recovery re-ignites investors’ enthusiasm for emerging market assets
5 October 2009Seasonally adjusted GDP rose in a majority of large emergers in Q2 – with gains particularly big in Asia, boosted by both higher export & domestic demand
28 September 2009Decisive move out of recession in Brazil in Q2; Mexico lagging behind but hopes of a pick-up in Q3
14 September 2009Strong Chinese lending growth in H1 in sharp contrast to developments in other emergers
7 September 2009Strong pick-up in Asia in Q2 and some positive signs elsewhere…but recovery will not be smooth
1 September 2009Mexico still in deep recession in Q2 but hopes of solid recovery in 2010 provided US economy stabilises and imports start to pick up
24 August 2009Who has benefited from the pick-up in Chinese imports?
17 August 2009Aggregate emerging markets’ GDP returns to growth in Q2, led by China. Mixed picture elsewhere, but as many countries are showing signs of improvement as remain weak
10 August 2009Upgrades to Asian growth in 2009, led by China; but large parts of the rest of the world are still struggling
3 August 2009Latin America – major easing in monetary policy probably at an end and solid recovery in Brazil may have started in Q2
27 July 2009Fairly widespread fall in headline inflation, though picture on underlying inflation more mixed; but the recession will soon drive all measures lower
20 July 2009Central and Eastern Europe – emerging region hardest hit by global crisis due to structural weaknesses in many countries & dependence on exports to weak EU
13 July 2009Burst of growth in parts of Asia in Q2, but recession deepened in a number of other key emergers
6 July 2009Sharp changes in Chinese manufacturing sentiment may have magnified swings in industrial output in the rest of Asia over the last year
29 June 2009Latin America – interest rate cuts continue; severe recession in Mexico driven by plunge in consumer spending and sliding exports and investment
22 June 2009Some encouraging signs but crucial pick-up in global trade remains elusive
8 June 2009Improvement in financial conditions & business confidence continues. Less destocking may boost GDP in Q2 but pick-up in exports still awaited
1 June 2009Latin America – widespread moves to larger budget deficits & falling interest rates but the global crisis has hit Mexico much harder than Brazil
26 May 2009Middle East – weighed down by lower oil prices and production cuts but still on course for marginal GDP growth this year
18 May 2009FDI flows to the emergers – down but not out
11 May 2009Significant improvement in sentiment and signs of stabilisation in some economies but others are still shrinking rapidly
5 May 2009On average, financial conditions improving and some signs of stabilising in real economies – but how do countries compare to the average position?
27 April 2009Latin America – orthodox macro policies have enabled access to new IMF funds and scope to fight recession with significant policy easing
20 April 2009Fiscal policy boosts in the non-Asian emergers – generally significant though not as big as in Asia. However, Hungary has had to tighten aggressively
6 April 2009Zero growth now in prospect for 2009, probably the worst performance since the 1930s, though some countries are at least showing a few positive signs
30 March 2009Brazilian authorities accentuate the positive as G20 nears, but even large interest rate cuts will not prevent a contraction in 2009
23 March 2009Budget balances under strain not just from fiscal policy boosts but also rapidly sliding revenues
16 March 2009Emerging Asian fiscal policy: a limited boost, but China could yet do more
9 March 2009The need to ease policy but also retain credibility
2 March 2009Emerging Europe: Between a rock and a hard place
23 February 2009Latin America on brink of recession
16 February 2009Assessing the slowdown in China
9 February 2009No signs of improvement in January - prospects of deep recession will spur more rapid easing of policy
2 February 2009Middle East economies hit by oil price plunge, lower output and credit crunch, but regional growth should still be positive in 2009
26 January 2009Scope to cut interest rates may help stave off (or at least limit) recession in Latin America
19 January 2009Highly uncertain outlook after an awful 2008Q4
12 January 2009Slump in activity seen in all regions in Q4…with parts of Asia severely hit by plunging sales to China
5 January 2009Dreadful data in November suggest large falls in Q4 GDP in much of emerging Asia
15 December 2008Relative to trend, aggregate growth performance in 2009 will be even weaker than in 1998
8 December 2008Q4 data point to a very sharp slowdown across the emergers and justify further policy easing
1 December 2008Latin America – trying to limit the damage of the global crisis but stubborn inflation is constraining ability to cut interest rates
24 November 2008Varied response of monetary policy to crisis so far – but pressure growing for more to cut rates
17 November 2008Signs of a very sharp and widespread slowdown in Q4
10 November 2008Succession of major real and financial shocks undermine growth across the emergers – with some particularly badly hit
3 November 2008Q&A: The financial crisis
27 October 2008Latin America gets caught up in the global financial turmoil – prompting some to increase state control
20 October 2008Which of the emergers are most reliant on exports to the rapidly slowing developed economies?
13 October 2008Credit crunch-induced flight from emerging market assets has been fairly indiscriminate to date
6 October 2008Severity of credit crunch in developed economies will hit growth in emergers – with exports and investment to come under pressure
29 September 2008Latin America - monetary policy still biased towards tightening despite global financial turmoil and G7 weakness
22 September 2008Worsening in credit crunch will dent emergers but lower commodity prices should provide some offset
8 September 2008Signs that inflation is peaking in the emergers but policy will have to remain cautious for some time
1 September 2008Monetary policy still being tightened in Latin America in an effort to get inflation back to target
26 August 2008Global headwinds are starting to hit growth in Central Europe, particularly in the 2004 EU entrants
18 August 2008How fast is emerging Asia slowing?
11 August 2008High inflation forcing interest rate hikes in many countries despite real income squeeze and weakening global trade
4 August 2008Exchange rate developments reinforce anti-inflationary monetary policy in most of Latin America & Europe but more mixed in Asia
28 July 2008Looking at real interest rates, monetary policy stance looks loose in Asia compared to Latin America and emerging Europe
21 July 2008With inflation well above target, monetary policy is being tightened across much of Latin America
14 July 2008Widespread tightening in monetary policy - in response to disturbingly high levels of inflation
30 June 2008Latin America - monetary policy in Mexico and Brazil remains focused on bringing inflation under control
23 June 2008Growth to come under increasing pressure as real incomes get squeezed, policy tightens and world trade slows – with East Asia ex China, Turkey and South Africa most vulnerable
16 June 2008Reduced fuel subsidies add to inflation pressures in India, Indonesia and Malaysia – and further moves in these three and in China are likely by end-year or early 2009 if oil reaches $150pb
9 June 2008With inflation still moving higher, boosted in some cases by cuts to oil subsidies, there’s increasing pressure for tighter monetary policy - at the same time as consumers are already feeling the squeeze
2 June 2008Brazil achieves investment grade status but above-target inflation now leading to a series of interest rate hikes
27 May 2008Central and Eastern Europe – growth outlook more varied now and risks may increase unless inflation is brought under control
19 May 2008Inflation is diverging from trend much more in the emergers than in the developed economies – particularly in parts of Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Vietnam
12 May 2008Inflation targets - reinforcing pressure on central banks to resist second-round effects of rising food and oil prices
6 May 2008Many emergers still tightening monetary policy (or about to) as inflation concerns pre-dominate
28 April 2008Latin America - fairly solid growth outlook, rising inflation is main challenge at the moment
21 April 2008Strong rise in FDI flows in 2007, particularly to the commodity producers. FDI flows may be crucial this year for those with large current account gaps
14 April 2008Growth still quite strong; inflation remains the key concern for the emergers, with many countries still tightening policy
31 March 2008Latin America - withstanding global turmoil…for now at least…but Brazil’s external surpluses shrinking fast because of strong demand
25 March 2008Despite weak US demand, Asian export growth remains quite strong, while rising commodity prices are driving up import bills sharply
17 March 2008The GCC economy - persistently high oil prices should ensure solid growth, a large current account surplus and expanding SWFs
10 March 2008Inflation still key concern. Asian exports remain robust. Risks for Turkey & South Africa increase
3 March 2008Latin American regional focus - main markets show resilience but current accounts start to weaken
25 February 2008South Africa - economic outlook under pressure from inflation, current account deficit and power crisis
18 February 2008Central & eastern Europe: some are now feeling the impact of the credit crunch and it could get worse...
11 February 2008Markets under pressure but BRIC domestic demand very strong; inflation remains a general threat
4 February 2008Latin American focus - US developments worrying for Mexico, less so for Brazil and Argentina
28 January 2008Financial markets battered by volatility stemming from the credit crunch but economies still robust
21 January 2008Despite cuts to emergers’ GDP in PPP terms, it will exceed that of the major developed economies soon
14 January 2008Buoyant emergers are a support to the developed economies, but also to each other
7 January 2008Slightly slower growth in prospect this year, though BRICs offer support; inflation poses risks for some
17 December 2007Emerging Asia should remain decoupled from US, EU and Japan provided OECD slowdown is not too severe
14 December 2007Central banks coordinate action to alleviate pressures on short-term markets
10 December 2007Strong domestic momentum should protect BRICs from all but very severe slowdown in the US and EU
3 December 2007Latin American regional focus - resilient but not immune to the repercussions of the credit crunch
26 November 2007How great are the inflation pressures in the emergers outside of food and oil prices?
19 November 2007CPI inflation has picked up across most emergers – but this is largely down to rising food prices
12 November 2007Robust growth maintained in most emergers in Q3, but some significant downside risks persist
5 November 2007Latin American regional focus: outlook still quite robust as markets benefit from US rate cuts
29 October 2007Exchange rates - how much have the emergers moved against the weakening US$ since 2002?
22 October 2007High external debt and large current account deficits pose risks for parts of emerging Europe
15 October 2007US demand is less important for the emergers’ exporters than it was at the start of the decade
8 October 2007Strong growth in the emergers still – for some, food prices just as much a worry as state of US economy
1 October 2007Latin American regional focus - calm after the storm in wake of US rate cut, underpinned by the BRICs
24 September 2007Despite the global crisis, emergers’ monetary policy is still “business as usual”…for now at least
17 September 2007Limited impact from credit squeeze given strong starting point and solid fundamentals
3 September 2007Latin American regional focus - global market turmoil may pose biggest risks for Mexico
28 August 2007Russia – a rapid climb up the league table of the emerging market economies
20 August 2007Big falls in asset prices and currencies...but emergers much better placed to weather storm than a few years ago
13 August 2007Chinese import growth...moderate in H1 compared to export growth but still a boost to other emergers
6 August 2007Increased market turbulence may lead to fall in capital inflows but not dent growth too much
30 July 2007Latin American regional focus: largest economies well placed to withstand rise in financial turbulence
23 July 2007Food price inflation – a worry for the emergers?
16 July 2007Surging capital flows into the emergers…but danger of reversal in some if global environment worsens
9 July 2007Robust growth continues…risks from inflation and deficits concentrated in relatively few economies
2 July 2007Less benign environment may renew concerns over risk…particularly in markets that have soared
24 June 2007Investment trends in the emergers and their possible impact on global real interest rates
17 June 2007East Asian trade: Chinese exports continue to surge, others show more moderate and patchy growth
11 June 2007Monetary policy moves…influenced by position in the economic cycle and success on inflation
4 June 2007Key Latin American markets shine through but picture not uniform...
29 May 2007FX reserves also rising significantly in some medium-sized emergers as surpluses and capital inflows put upward pressure on exchange rates
21 May 2007FX reserves shooting up in the largest emergers … but size of tolerated appreciation against the US$ depends on country-specific factors
14 May 2007Fiscal policy in central Europe – still work to do
8 May 2007In the absence of a sharper US slowdown, wide diversity of factors shaping growth in the emergers
30 April 2007Brazil looks to larger rate cuts, Mexico hopes to avert slide on US slowdown
23 April 2007What a difference a decade makes
10 April 2007Though US economy sets the background, domestic factors key to 2007 performance in many emergers
2 April 2007Interest rate conundrums abound: in US and in Latin America also
26 March 2007Rapid Chinese export growth indicates competitive squeeze on other Asian exporters continues
19 March 2007Will central European governments make the most of the growth dividend?
12 March 2007Drop in emerging market assets…follows on from big gains driven largely by better fundamentals
5 March 2007Market correction may refocus Latin America risk
26 February 2007Buoyant credit growth across the emergers
19 February 2007China’s commodity demands – still very strong
12 February 2007Modest slowdown in world trade to take the edge off growth in the emergers. But China & India still strong, Brazil & Indonesia picking up
5 February 20072006 – a buoyant year for FDI flows, reaching a wider range of countries, outflows also rising
29 January 2007Strategies in the battle for growth: tales from Venezuela, Argentina and Brazil
22 January 2007Emerging markets – a rapidly growing and significant source of demand for German and US exporters
15 January 2007Despite the protectionist rhetoric, Asia’s share of US imports is little different from a decade ago
8 January 2007Some deceleration likely in 2007, but broadly robust picture set to continue. Specific risks a danger for India, Turkey and South Africa
18 December 2006Brazil and Mexico in 2007 -- problems versus opportunities for Lula and Calderon
11 December 2006Modest effects of US slowdown so far, but triggers Asian currency gains and China’s soaring trade surplus adds to pressure
4 December 2006Could China’s 2007 trade surplus exceed US$250bn? And what will this buy?
26 November 2006Central Europe: good economics, bad politics
20 November 2006Brazil – limited options but “more of the same” should bring steady growth of around 4%
13 November 2006Strong growth in China and India continues but more modest performance elsewhere
6 November 2006Indian monetary policy – is it tight enough?
30 October 2006Is China’s GDP getting out of line with demand once again?
23 October 2006How great is the emergers' reliance on the US?
16 October 2006Emerging markets should withstand moderate US slowdown
9 October 2006Commodity demands in the emergers
29 September 2006Crisis, what crisis?
22 September 2006Uncertainty about the US: Less important for China & India, but more crucial for rest of Asia

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