Oxford Economics is a world leader in high quality, quantitative analysis and practical, evidence-based business and public policy advice. We help our clients to understand what the application of careful economic analysis reveals about the opportunities, challenges and strategic choices they face.

Our consultancy services include:

• Economic Impact Studies
• Scenario Analysis
• Macro Policy Assessments
• Tax Analysis
• Model Building
• Product Market Forecasting
• Regional Analysis
• Stress Testing for Lenders

Applying cutting-edge economic and quantitative tools to our analysis, we draw on the latest research, an investment in global data collection and a suite of time-tested models to assemble the facts and findings for your decisions. We help you interpret this knowledge and present you with clear messages in clear language.

Economic Impact Studies

Oxford Economics' impact studies assess the contribution of a particular sector, company or investment project to the economy as a whole, at a regional, national and sometimes global level. Our economic impact studies typically quantify the total economic impact via four channels:

• Direct impacts - such as the employment, output and fiscal contributions generated by the sector/company itself
• Indirect impacts - employment and output supported by the sector/company via purchases from its supply chain
• Induced impacts - employment and output supported by the spending of those employed directly or indirectly by the sector/company
• Catalytic or spillover impacts - the extent to which the activities of the relevant sector/company contribute to improved productivity and performance in other sectors of the economy. Oxford Economics is at the frontier of global research into these catalytic economic impacts in a number of sectors, particularly aerospace and aviation.

Recent economic impact studies include:

• A report that investigates the economic impact of the independent research and technology sector on the UK economy for AIRTO (The Association of Independent Research and Technology Organisations) (view study)
• An assessment of the economic and social contribution of the air transport industry to the global economy, for ATAG (view study)
• Analysis of the economic contribution made by the express parcels delivery industry, and the impact on the efficient operation of its customers of constraints on the expansion of express parcels services (eg restrictions on night flights). This series of studies was prepared for a consortium including FedEx, UPS, TNT and DHL, and includes analysis of the importance of the industry for the UK, for Italy, for Europe as a whole and globally (view study)
• A study on the economic importance of BAE SYSTEMS for the UK economy and the implications for the way in which the government approaches defence procurement (view study)
• The economic contribution of the UK film industry - study for UK Film Council and Pinewood Shepperton plc in the context of the recent review of fiscal support in the UK (view study)
• A detailed assessment of the economic and social impact of Tomorrow's People, a specialist charitable trust that has a 20 year track-record of helping people out of long-term unemployment, welfare dependence or homelessness into jobs and self-sufficiency (view study)
• A detailed study of the economic impact of the development of Crossrail on both the London and UK economies, including the development of a fully articulated system for modelling linkages between commuting patterns, the property market and employment in the City, Westminster, Tower Hamlets and the rest of London.

As well as providing written reports, we are also experienced in presenting our research to governments, the media and other organisations, and supporting our clients' representations to decision-makers.

Scenario Analysis

Oxford Economics is uniquely placed to provide rigorous, quantitative analysis of global economic scenarios and risks. Our Global Macro and Industry Model provides the ideal framework in which we can explore issues such as:

• How hard would the credit crunch hit the economy?
• What would be the implications of oil prices hitting $100 pb?
• How would a revaluation of the Chinese currency affect the world economy?
• How damaging would an Avian flu epidemic be?
• Is the US housing market overvalued and what if it crashes?
• What would the implications of trade liberalisation be for the EU?

As well as advising on the implications of such risks and their likelihood, we are also able to offer tailored advice on their implications for your markets and your business. Examples of such bespoke research include:

• Analysis of the implications of trade liberalisation and CAP reform in the EU - for Open Europe (view study)
• Assessing the impact and cost of Avian flu across the Asian economies - for the Asian Development Bank (view study)
• An assessment of the effects on the US economy of trade and investment with China - for the US-China Business Council (view study)
• Quantifying the economic cost of a ban on night-flights on the express industry and UK economy - for Association of International Couriers and Express Services (view study)
• Analysing the impact of the London terrorist attacks on the tourism sector - for the World Travel and Tourism Council (view study)
• An assessment of the implications for the EU economy of measures to liberalise mortgage and consumer credit markets, on behalf of the European Commission

Macro Policy Assessments

Our Global Macro Model is the most widely used commercial model in the world, with clients including the IMF, World Bank, Asian Development Bank and a wide range of government departments and central banks. It provides an ideal framework for assessing the economic impact of different macroeconomic policy proposals, both at a national and global level. And, combined with the experience of our economists, it also ensures that our macro policy assessments have a high degree of credibility and authority.

Recent studies include:

• An assessment of the impact on the US economy of trade and investment with China for the US-China Business Council (view study)
• Analysis of the implications of trade liberalisation and CAP reform in the EU, looking at a range of alternative liberalisation scenarios (eg multilateral, bilateral, unilateral, with/without CAP reform) on behalf of Open Europe (view study)
• An assessment of the impact on the European and UK economies of different instruments designed to reduce carbon emissions for the Engineering Employers Federation (view study)
• Analysis of the implications of reform to UK housing finance using the OEF and HM Treasury models, for the Miles Review of the UK mortgage market commissioned by the Chancellor of the Exchequer (view study)
• An assessment of the implications for the EU economy of measures to liberalise mortgage and consumer credit markets, on behalf of the European Commission

Tax Analysis

Oxford Economics advises both Ministries of Finance and blue-chip companies on a range of fiscal policy issues. Areas of particular expertise include:

• Analysis of the impact of tax reforms for different sectors and households
• Support for businesses and trade bodies in preparing representations to government on tax issues
• Developing models for forecasting macroeconomic prospects and their implications for tax revenues and budget setting
• Design of excise tax systems and dealing with problems of fraud, smuggling and bootlegging
• Advice on the appropriate regime for maximising returns from oil and other resources

Examples of recent projects on which we have advised include:

• The economic contribution of the UK film industry - in the context of the recent review of fiscal support in the UK (view study)
• Addressing the EU cigarette excise regime review 2006 - identifying issues facing the new accession states in implementing the EU's cigarette tax rules (view study)
• The affordability of cigarettes in ASEAN countries: - implications for tax policies - paper presented to International Tax and Investment Center Asian tax conference (view study)
• Petroleum and Iraq's future: fiscal options and challenges - study with International Tax and Investment Center , Centre for Global Energy Studies and Transborder (view study)
• The consequences of the proposed increase in the minimum excise duty rates for beer - report for Brewers of Europe (view study)

Model Building

Our extensive experience in building and maintaining economic models provides an ideal base to help clients develop their own models, whether at a macro, sectoral, regional or product-market level. Recent projects have included:

• Building a model for forecasting macroeconomic developments and tax revenues on behalf of the Bulgarian Ministry of Finance, and training its staff in how to maintain and update the model, and how to use it to inform the policy process. We have recently undertaken similar projects in Egypt, Turkey and Slovakia.
• Developing a detailed model of energy use at a sector level to analyse the impact of a variety of policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions for The Carbon Trust.
• Building a system for identifying risk to pharmaceutical sales across 12 markets and whether those risks reflects macro developments, the state of government finances, issues with healthcare budgets or pharma-specific factors, for a major international pharmaceutical company.
• Developing a system for forecasting sales of forklift trucks in the six main European markets, for a major manufacturer

Our models are delivered in user-friendly format, with the necessary training and support to ensure the client understands the model and how to apply it to address practical business and policy questions. In addition, Oxford Economics is able to provide continuing support in running and maintaining such models.

Product Market Forecasting

Our forecasts of the global economy at a macro and sector level provide an ideal framework for developing forecasts and scenarios for particular product markets.

Oxford Economics provides detailed forecasts for a wide range of markets, including tourism, pharmaceuticals, shipping, machine tools, forklift trucks, alcoholic beverages, newspaper advertising and IT. Such projects typically involve the following steps:

• Identifying the key macroeconomic and industrial sector drivers for a particular product market
• Using statistical techniques to quantify the relationships between those drivers and the relevant product market metrics (e.g. sales, profits, investment), taking into account any leads/lags and tipping points
• Building those relationships into a model that links to the drivers from our Global Macro and Sectoral Models
• Developing a detailed forecast and a set of scenarios that illustrate the implications of key risks that could impact on the market

Our analysis often extends further - for example, identifying the key drivers of a company's market share or assessing the impact that its advertising programme is having on its sales performance. Moreover, such models can be used to advise on pricing policy and for setting targets for sales teams, as well as informing production and investment planning.

Regional Analysis

Oxford Economics has considerable experience in analysing regional economic prospects and the impact of regional policy on economic performance. Examples of recent studies include:

• Forecasts for sales of consumer goods at a very local level (output areas and postal sectors) to support store location decisions and companies' representations at planning inquiries (provided in conjunction with MapInfo)
• A study (with Regional Forecasts and Arup) looking at the pattern of regional development in the UK and what England's regional economies might look like in 2030 (view study)
• Assessing London's place in the UK economy, including its impact on UK public finances for the City of London (view study)
• Quantifying the cost of transport delays to the London economy, on behalf of the GLA (view study)
• A detailed study of the economic impact of the development of Crossrail on both the London and UK economies, including the development of a fully articulated system for modelling linkages between commuting patterns, the property market and employment in the City, Westminster, Tower Hamlets and the rest of London.
• A detailed assessment of the interactions between economic activity, migration and housing in Manchester and Salford for the area's housing market renewal partnership
• An assessment of economic development in the three main cities of the East Midlands (Nottingham, Leicester and Derby), involving forecasts of economic trends and advising on how the cities might cooperate to raise their levels of economic prosperity
• The identification and collation of baseline indicators to inform economic and broader policy decisions for the West Midlands and its sub-regions, particularly towards regeneration zones

In addition, Oxford Economics has prepared a number of detailed studies assessing the contribution of tourism to regional economic performance (e.g. in the Algarve, the Canary Islands and Valencia).

Stress Testing for Lenders

Stress testing is a valuable risk management tool for banks and building societies. It helps inform risk managers how their institutions’ earnings, profitability and capital adequacy are likely to alter under the different economic circumstances that may occur in the future. Moreover, it will shortly be part of the regulatory framework. Oxford Economics has a suite of rigourous, quantitative models (UK regional, industrial, and global) that provide an ideal framework with which we can explore issues such as:

• Is the housing market overvalued and what if it crashes?
• Will consumers’ continue to be able to afford to repay their credit card loans?
• Is the West Midlands economy heading for problems?
• What are the implications of a slowdown in the chemical industry?

Scenarios can be tailored to reflect the nature and composition of a bank or building society’s portfolios. As well as advising on the implications of such risks and their likelihood, we are also able to offer tailored advice on their implications for your markets and your business.